Canada

British Columbia Real Estate Leads Canadian Sales Higher

Canadian real estate buyers are pushing volume higher, led by a recovery out west. Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) data shows real estate sales made a big climb in November. All but three major markets saw real estate sales climb, with half seeing double digit gains.

Canadian Real Estate Sales

Canadian real estate sales are climbing – and fast. CREA reported 37,213 unadjusted sales in November, up 11.3% from the same month last year. Compared to November 2017, this number is 2.31% lower. Not at new highs, but the volume jumped right back in range of record highs.

Canadian Real Estate Sales

The unadjusted sales for all home types, as reported through the Canadian MLS.

Source: CREA, Better Dwelling.

There was deceleration of growth, but the overall trend still looks higher. The 11.3% growth in November, is the second consecutive month to see deceleration. Two months don’t make a trend, and it’s still printing double digit growth.

Canadian Real Estate Sales Change

The annual percent chage of unadjusted sales for all home types, as reported through the Canadian MLS.

Source: CREA, Better Dwelling.

Worth a mention is the distortion by delayed demand. B-20 and the foreign buyer taxes delayed many buyers, for various reasons from financing to expectations. Using a rolling 12-month average, we can see how this demand is unfolding. There’s growth, and things are improving – but the market isn’t overheating on a national scale.

Canadian Real Estate Sales Rolling 12-Months

The rolling 12-month average of Canadian real estate sales, as reported through the Canadian MLS.

Source: CREA, Better Dwelling.

Most analysis focuses on annual comparisons of single months, and seasonal adjustments. In a regular market, those are your best bets. Sudden regulatory changes can delay buyers for a few months, and skew the analysis. Rolling 12-month averages can help to see this trend a little more clearly.

British Columbia Real Estate Leads For Gains

British Columbia real estate markets are leading sales higher, after last year’s fiasco. Vancouver had the biggest bump in the country with 2,546 sales in November, up 55.9% from last year. Fraser Valley follows with 1,318 sales, up 34.9% over the same period. Halifax came in third with 489 sales, up 19% from last year. Vancouver and Fraser Valley reached multi-year lows last year, so the massive rise may be misleading. Sales in both regions are still lower than they were two years ago.

Canadian Real Estate Sales By Market

Canadian real estate sales in markets with more than 400 sales in the month.

Source: CREA, Better Dwelling.

Southern Ontario Real Estate Is Seeing The Biggest Drops

The southern Ontario markets of Kitchener and Niagara led lower, followed by Edmonton. Kitchener had the biggest drop with 404 sales in November, down 10.6% from last year. Niagara followed with 436 sales, down 4.8% over the same period. Edmonton made the third biggest drop with 1,202 sales, down 3.6% from the same month last year. All three markets are below their 2017 levels as well.

Canadian Real Estate Sales Change By Market

The percent change in Canadian real estate sales, in markets with more than 400 sales in the month.

Source: CREA, Better Dwelling.

Canadian real estate sales are on the rise, but not quite at their peak levels. The recovery in volume is largely due to British Columbia’s major markets returning to normal volumes. Although most of the country’s major markets are seeing an increase in sales as well.

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5 Comments

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  • Matt 2 months ago

    You should see the emails about buying in Vancouver before the government gives buyers free money.

  • Rob Turner 2 months ago

    Can someone explain this “delayed demand” thing I keep hearing about. A buddy that’s a mortgage broker mentioned it too.

    • Ethan Wu 2 months ago

      Think of this way.

      150 people buy in period one.

      100 people are going to buy in period two.

      Government passes restriction

      50 people in period two end up buying. 50 people wait to see what happens.

      100 people buy in period three.

      100 people buy in period four, plus the 50 people delayed from period two. Meaning Period 4 is 150 people, just like period one.

      100 people buy in period five, because there was no more delayed buyers.

      Either new buyers need to be inspired to purchase, or more buyers withdraw because it’ll look like sales are dropping again. This is by definition, a dead cat bounce.

      • RainCityRyan 2 months ago

        It’s interesting to see this happening in Vancouver/LM now … just as the price declines match the drop in buying power due to the B20 rules.

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