Canada

Vancouver Real Estate Prices Rise, and Toronto Slips From Peak

Canadian real estate prices slipped from the all-time high, but not far. TeranetNational Bank of Canada House Price Index (TNB HPI) show prices for the national index fell in October. Despite the decline, most markets are just below peak.

Canadian Real Estate Prices Are Just Off Peak

The C11, an index of Canada’s largest real estate markets, fell slightly from peak. Prices dropped 0.05% in October, but are still up 0.99% from last year. September 2019 was the peak, so prices are just 0.05% from the top. It’s a drop from highs, but not by much.

Teranet-National Bank HPI C11 (Annual Change)

The 12 month percent change of real estate prices in Canada’s 11 largest cities, according to the TNB HPI.

Source: National Bank of Canada, Teranet, Better Dwelling.

Toronto Real Estate Prices Fall From Peak

Toronto real estate prices slipped from an all-time high on the index, but are pretty close. House prices fell 0.16% in October, but remain 4.06% from the same month last year. The index reached an all-time high in September, so it’s 0.16% down from peak. Since this is a composite index, one would assume much of the gains came from condo appreciation. A trend that we’ve seen across other price indexes for Toronto real estate.

Toronto Real Estate Price Change

The 12 month percent change of real estate prices in Toronto, according to the TNB HPI.

Source: National Bank of Canada, Teranet, Better Dwelling.

Vancouver Real Estate Makes First Increase In Months

Vancouver real estate prices finally stopped falling – for now at least. Prices increased 0.17% in October, bringing prices 6.17% lower than last year. Prices are now down 7.26% from the peak reached in July 2018. The uptick follows 12 months of declines for the index.

Vancouver Real Estate Price Change

The 12 month percent change of real estate prices in Vancouver, according to the TNB HPI.

Source: National Bank of Canada, Teranet, Better Dwelling.

Montreal Real Estate Prices Are Slightly Below Peak

Technically Montreal real estate prices fell, but the amount makes it almost negligible. Montreal real estate prices fell 0.08% in October, bringing prices 5.97% higher than last year. Since prices peaked in September, prices are now down 0.08% from peak. The city’s 12-month increase is the second largest in the C11, second only to Halifax. Wherever that is.

Montreal Real Estate Price Change

The 12 month percent change of real estate prices in Montreal, according to the TNB HPI.

Source: National Bank of Canada, Teranet, Better Dwelling.

Calgary Real Estate Prices Are Still Down From Their 2014 Peak

Calgary real estate prices slipped once again. Prices in October fell 0.11%, and are now 1.70% lower than they were a year ago. Prices are now down 5.81% from the peak reached in October 2014. That’s right, prices peaked  more than half a decade ago.

Calgary Real Estate Price Change

The 12 month percent change of real estate prices in Calgary, according to the TNB HPI.

Source: National Bank of Canada, Teranet, Better Dwelling.

Canadian real estate prices dropped from peak technically, but not very far. The stronger than usual activity this past October, likely helped to prevent a larger seasonal decline.

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12 Comments

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  • zz 3 weeks ago

    it’s quite evident that the viewership of this site has declined. I think people began to realize that high price will be the new norm. this site has been championing the collapse for past few years now.

    • Luigi Vampa 3 weeks ago

      Have any stats to back that up? I and others I know still check in daily. I think it presents a more balanced statistically driven view of the Canadian real estate market than most other sources. Also they are more or less just presenting numbers now and next to no analysis. The stats are the stats…

      • zz 3 weeks ago

        if you read number of comments from two years ago, you’d see posts with 30-40 comments. cheering for the collapse… and you read posts now… some have 0 comment

    • Gen Zoomer 3 weeks ago

      How do you know whether the viewership has declined?

      Or maybe the mods are clamping down on troll comments and realtor shill posts?

      Prices were rising in the States during 2005-2008 until the mortgage fraud exacerbated a global financial recession of 2008-2009.

    • Trader Jim 3 weeks ago

      That’s because the discussion is now on the forum and the WeChat group, but nice conspiracy. Chat restricted to finance professionals is much more constructive than the random and baseless speculation in the comments – such as yours.

  • Aldi 3 weeks ago

    There is a downward bias in this site but it serves as a useful counter-balance to the upward bias presented by the vested interests in the real estate industry.

  • straw walker 3 weeks ago

    Very few people want to know the truth…in all honesty the real truth is a ugly, and unnerving ..
    Hence most people want to hear what they really want to hear..what will make them feel good about their decisions..Though these decisions are wrong.
    They will hang onto these wrong decisions until they are forced to adjust..most only change their views when they’re forced to…as in the bank or lender tells them..

    I think Better Dwelling has been giving us a real option to our own views and preconceptions of what is actually occurring.

  • Reality 3 weeks ago

    Prices in Vancouver Real Estate have gone up? I think you need to check your data (0.17% – what’s the margin of error for the data? I’m guessing bigger than that. Vancouver prices are not going up, sorry)

  • NotABear 3 weeks ago

    Whaddup bears?!

  • Gen Zoomer 3 weeks ago

    AirBnB clampdowns in Toronto means money launderers have to park their monies elsewhere because they can’t get a return on it or they are afraid that the RCMP might get involved.

    How can anyone tell me with a straight face that numbered corporations are buying condos and Canadian nominees are being used for the purchases. If those numbered corporations have nothing to hide why are they exactly following the financial crimes handbook of the RCMP?

    Canada doesn’t even have a public registry online, but business investors from jurisdictions with GDP per capita of less than US$3,000 a year are buying $300,000 condos. What did they do? Work for 100 years and saved up the money at age 18 and bought a Lamborghini to go with the $1,000 pair of boots?

  • Brad 3 weeks ago

    It’s quite easy to see how readers have gone down. Look at older articles and how many comments, most were 25-30+ and much higher…. it’s now the end of the day and this one has 4.

    Trudeau put in a 560k floor in the market, and the bond market have driven fixed rates to a pittance. We haven’t even met that floor yet and prices will have to continue to elevate to meet it.

  • SH 3 weeks ago

    Not saying you’re necessarily wrong, but the BC Liberals tried helicopter money similar to the share equity scheme and there was very little uptake. The more consequential issue is mass unbridled immigration, and with the Liberals back in that will continue to explode higher meaning suppressed wages and inflated rents/prices for middle class Canadians. Since Millennials are largely responsible for the Liberal win, they did this to themselves.

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