Canada isn’t officially in a recession, but its largest city is already experiencing one. Statistics Canada (Stat Can) data shows seasonally adjusted unemployment in Toronto CMA surged in November. Nearly 1 in 10 of the region’s workers are struggling to find work despite actively looking. The unemployment rate is now at levels not seen outside of the deepest recessions, with the jobless population hitting pandemic levels.
What Recession? Toronto’s Jobless Population Hits Pandemic-Levels
Toronto CMA’s unemployed population: Total workers actively looking for work and unable to find a job. Those unemployed but not actively seeking employment are not included in this count.
Source: Stat Can; Better Dwelling.
Toronto unemployment has been on the rise but really took off last month. The region’s seasonally adjusted unemployed population rose 23.9% (+73.2k people) to 379.9k people in November. If that sounds like an absurd increase, that’s because it is—only the first 3 months of the pandemic (March-May 2020) have ever reported a larger monthly increase. The region’s unemployed population is the largest since May 2021.
Last month was an exceptionally large move, but the general trend has been moving in this direction. Annual growth came in at 47.0% (+121.4k people) in November, though that still means more than half the jobless growth occured last month. It was the highest rate since 2021, similar to when people were avoiding public spaces and many businesses were restricted from opening.
Nearly 1 In 10 Toronto Workers Are Unable To Find A Job
Toronto CMA unemployment rate: The share of workers unable to find a job and actively looking for employment.
Source: Stat Can; Better Dwelling.
The Toronto unemployment rate was already higher than average, but that didn’t stop it from surging. The region’s unemployment rate added 1.7 points hitting 9.2% in November, rising a whopping 40% in just one year. It’s at the highest level since July 2021, with nearly 1 in 10 workers struggling to find employment. This kind of environment has never been seen outside of the deepest recession, consistent with the pandemic and Great Recession.
Canadian unemployment has generally been on the rise, but not like Toronto. Last month Canada added 10s of thousands of jobs, it just added a lot more workers. That wasn’t the case in Toronto where it lost 0.2% (-8.5k) jobs in November, while adding 10s of thousands of workers. The region’s unemployment is 2.4 points higher than the national average, meaning people are 35% more likely to be unemployed. A land of opportunity, really.
Canada’s recent GDP revisions have many analysts feeling concerns about the economy are overblown. That was hard to swallow, and gets even harder with the unemployment data. Toronto is the country’s largest city and economic region, with a GDP slightly larger than Alberta. It’s also an economic region where nearly 1 in 10 workers can’t find work, despite being “ready, willing, and able.” The region’s jobless population now rivals the total population of some of the country’s largest cities, like Halifax and Victoria. Not exactly a headwind for higher real estate prices, but that said—prices did rise alongside the unemployment surge. Maybe UBS is onto something.
Don’t worry, Stats Can’t has a revision in the pipeline that will probably make employment 110% of the economy.
Does this mean all of these people are on unemployment?
Not necessarily. Statistics Canada (like the BLS in the US) is just trying to discount anyone that isn’t looking from the unemployment rate. If you’re too embarrassed that you were looking and didn’t find employment, they just want a reason to not count them as a part of the unemployment and then categorize them as “non participant.”
We need way more jobs than the books imply.
“students”
Stop bringing more people to Canada. They are ruining my country
Looks like a lot of movement to B.C will happen. Alberta has also high unemployment so it has lost its appeal. Victoria and Abbotsford are at 4% or so and Vancouver 6%. Housing problems in B.C are about to get interesting. Families have trouble moving but younger people will go where work is available regardless of accommodation costs. They might not like the rent but prefer to have a job.
Don, what’s the participation rate in BC compared to Alberta, or the rest of Canada? and the population increase?
What’s the average house price in Calgary? When you know these answers, why would you move to BC?
I was an executive in the oil business when I came to Canada. I had lived in several countries previously. Worked as a consultant for 3 months in Edmonton. Went to B.C for a visit. Moved to B.C and never considered Alberta again, even though I was offered some well paid positions. House prices in Calgary are cheaper than B.C. but when the oil price drops and everyone is out of work as happens every few years, you cannot sell a house for love nor money. Thats why they are cheaper and have not gone up like Vancouver or Toronto.
Oh and bye the way Saudi is currently discussing dropping the oil price to ruin Russia. It will have the same affect in Alberta
And you know this how? Care to provide a link from your source inside the house of Saud ?
Dropping oil prices no longer hurts Russia as it did the Soviet Union in the 90s. Those days are gone.
Instead it will hurt Trump’s “drill baby drill” program. No US shale company will drill new wells at a loss when their break even is between 60-70 USD.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/748207/breakeven-prices-for-us-oil-producers-by-oilfield/
Saudi Arabia Warns Oil Prices Could Drop to $50
By Charles Kennedy – Oct 02, 2024, 6:31 AM CDT
Saudi Arabia is threatening to take back market share and ditch its unofficial $100 oil price target.
Saudi Arabia DID NOT warn that oil prices could fall to $50. WSJ published misinformation that was promptly rebutted by the Saudis.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/opec-rebuts-wsj-article-saudi-saying-oil-prices-could-drop-50-2024-10-02/
Saudis will be hosting the 2034 World Cup. They need every bit of oil revenue they can get.
And there is also those small matters of sanctions on Russian oil and the upcoming war on Iran.
Look at my comment and answer the questions, don’t provide your speculative thoughts.
You need to think in empirical terms.
Don’t respond until you do, as will you will continue to look weak and out of control.
$ 50 oil would panic Trump and make tariffs higher to protect the US oil Industry. Alberta would be toast.
WOW… I can’t believe that dumping millions of “newcomers” over the last 4 yrs didn’t CREATE an economy. Who knew?!
Obviously not JT and his genius think tank called the “CENTURY INITIATIVE”
PLEASE familiarize yourself and others with the CENTURY INITIATIVE if you don’t already know about their agenda. It is the definitive plan that has lead to this nightmare situation of unsustainable living costs.
“100 million by 2100”
Poor Canada! Our jobless native land!
Economic woes thou dost command.
We see thee sinking, dear forsaken ground,
The Broke North, drowning free;
And stand in line for benefits, Poor Canada,
We stand in line for thee.
(Refrain)
Poor Canada! Poor Canada!
Poor Canada! We stand in unemployment’s plea,
Poor Canada! We stand in unemployment’s plea.
Poor Canada! Where startups fail and rents soar high,
Great prairies empty, as young workers say goodbye,
How dear the cost of living’s drain,
From Toronto to BC!
Thou land of hope turned hopeless toil!
Thou Broke North, barely free!
(Refrain)
Poor Canada! Beneath thy crushing debt,
May jobless youth and struggling workers fret,
To keep thee standing through these years
Of economic misery,
Our overtaxed and stranded land,
Our Broke North, hardly free!
(Refrain)
Banker Supreme, Who counts each empty purse,
Hold our dominion in thy ruthless curse.
Help us to find, O Market’s might,
A temporary reward,
As waiting for the Better Day,
We ever stand on guard.
(Refrain)
+100
Last line should have been “we no longer stand on guard”
Just take up Trump’s offer and become his 51st state.
More fraudulent international students and Alberta’s foreign slave pipeline from the Middle East will help solve Toronto unemployment!
Keep immigration at 2 million a year or raise it more to fix this issue. Also drop interest rates to 0% to pump housing prices
No one will work under the gun of a Tortin homeo while there’s a mass breach to the right to life liberty and security of person thanks to the the worst Federal government in the history of this country causing the most deaths.
They’ll just try to take it up with the human rights tribunal.
Which won’t work because they only care about the psychopaths
With over 2 million ppl using foodbanks, we are not in a recession. We are in a depression. It will be nice when adults take over and kick the inept regime to the curb for good. .
What does that mean, exactly, 9% unemployment? It’s just a number and doesn’t accurately reflect the well-being of the average person or family. For instance, the United States has a 4% unemployment rate, which “looks good” on paper, but a huge percentage of the population is living in poverty. In my case, in Toronto, I’m technically “unemployed”, but because I’m in my 50s and have savings, so, after a lifetime of working a lot, I don’t have to work. I live in a nice condo and have a good quality of life. I am actively looking for work, because I want to be busy, but I repeatedly have interviews, and after discovering the salary offer is in the 45 to 50K range, I turn down the offer. I suspect many others are in a similar boat. The real problem here is, employers are not offering livable wages. It’s not similar to the “Great Depression” as the article writer implies.
Remember that your experience of what it’s like to live in the US is from media (social & traditional) vs what it’s like to live here (whatever your small circle is). US poverty is on the way down while Canada is on the way up.
Canada adopted a totally different measure of poverty to artificially lower its volume and it’s still reinflating to US levels. Canada’s estimate and final number for 2022 was also 1 point, the odds are in favor of Canada already having higher poverty than the US.
Poverty Rate 2023:
Canada: 10.2%; +1.2 points
US: 11.1%; -0.4 points.
Sources:
– https://publications.gc.ca/collections/collection_2024/statcan/75f0002m/75f0002m2024001-eng.pdf
– https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2024/demo/p60-283.html
US poverty rate: 12.9%
Good that you still have a decent lifestyle because you worked hard in the past.
As for living wages, until Canadians improve drastically with their productivity, compared to the US and other nations, it’s not going to happen. We have our politicians to thank for their incompetence.
Which adults do you see in politics in this country?
I lived in US for 30 yrs. If you speak english, have a degree and want to work you will never experience struggling the way you will here.
I would love to see US vs Can unemployment rate for college (legitimate) degreed workers.
I never thought I would defend the US, but after 18 months back in my “home” country, I am disgusted and horrified with what passes for acceptable “standard of living”.
A $2,000 squalid basement is NOT ok.
because employers only want cheap indians who barely speak english!