Greater Toronto’s new home market took another hit as weak demand met falling-but-still-lofty prices. BILD GTA and Altus Group data show prices slipped in October—but not enough to draw buyers off the sidelines. Sales fell to a record low for the month, while inventory hovered near multi-year highs. The gap between what’s for sale and what’s selling has never been wider.
Greater Toronto New Home Prices Slide To Multi-Year Low
Greater Toronto New Home Prices: Altus Benchmark Price.
Source: Altus Group.
Greater Toronto new home prices fell again in October. A typical single-family home dropped 0.21% (-$3.0k) to $1.43 million—down 7.4% (-$114.4k) from last year and 25.8% (-$500.0k) below the record high just over 3 years ago. Prices are back to 2021 levels—and possibly lower, but more on that after condos.
Condo apartments have held up better than single-family homes, but that grip may be slipping. The benchmark price dipped 0.15% (-$1.5k) to $1.03 million. It’s still up 2.5% (+$25.2k) from last year, though that’s likely a base-effect anomaly. Condo prices are down 17.6% (–$220.8k) from peak, with losses widening from last month.
Skeptical about condo price resilience? Good instincts. Unlike CREA or TRREB benchmarks based on actual sales, Altus uses list prices for its benchmark. As a result, new home prices are more accurate when demand is high, and buyers pay closer to list price. However, since it doesn’t reflect discounts and incentives, it often overstates prices when demand is weak.
Greater Toronto New Home Sales Had The Weakest October On Record
Greater Toronto New Home Sales: October.
Source: BILD; Altus Group; Better Dwelling.
Greater Toronto new home sales hit another historic low. Developers reported just 570 units sold in October—down 29% from last year and 81% below the 10-year average. It was the weakest October ever recorded, with condo sales alone sitting 88% below the 10-year average. Last month also marked the 13th straight month of record-low sales, a stretch Altus Group says is the weakest period in its data.
The City of Toronto was hit particularly hard, representing just 54 condo sales (-62.8% y/y) and one single-family home sold. It’s absolutely mindblowing to see fewer than five dozen new-home sales in a city with more than 3 million people. To put that in perspective, the odds of seeing a used Lamborghini for sale in Toronto (82 units) are higher than the odds of seeing a new home sold last month.
Greater Toronto New Home Inventory 77% Higher Than 3 Years Ago
Greater Toronto new home inventory: October.
Source: BILD; Altus Group; Better Dwelling.
Greater Toronto’s inventory of new homes remains at historically lofty levels. Inventory reached 21.2k units in October, down 4.7% from last year—though that rate was just one-sixth of the drop in sales. Inventory remains 77% higher than just three years ago, representing the second-highest inventory for the month since 2015, just behind last year. Despite the mild drop, market conditions are still loosening.
Greater Toronto new home prices are falling, but not fast enough to revive demand. Developers are shelving projects rather than cutting prices, in a bid to restrict supply and slow further price erosion. But with record-low demand, soaring resale inventory, and a flood of units still under construction, economists argue there’s more than enough in the pipeline to cap prices. Resistance to reducing list prices may not be a choice: Developments have become increasingly reliant on inflated comps to support lofty appraisals, helping pre-construction buyers secure financing.
The Lambo point hit me twice. First I giggled. Then I realized I’ve only seen maybe 3 lambos in the past year but I see a new condo development crane on every corner.
I almost had a mini-anxiety attack until I realized that’s why we do cashflow math—who cares about the value if you did the math correctly on it being an investment property. Prices need to fall another 30% or so for the math to make sense.
Falling another 30% is unrealistic—which is why the market is going to be dead for the next decade or so. People really do underappreciate just how insanely dangerous it is to do this to a real estate market.
Next up nonsense infrastructure projects in the middle of nowhere to keep the construction industry employed, and we won’t have any clue why productivity is falling.
Another 30 % fall is possible even more could happen. 3 times earnings or below might be the bottom. All bets are off . We are at about 9 times earnings. 3 times earnings was the historical average.
Detached properties are liable to depreciate the least. Condos on the other hand have no bottom. Sudden assessment charges and out of control monthly fees will make some older condos pretty much unsellable. Eventually even renting them out will not cover the monthly cost of holding them. It does not cover that now for newer expensive condos.