Time for your cheat sheet on this week’s top stories.
Canadian Real Estate
The Canadian Real Estate Industry’s Forecast Expectations Are Crashing
Canada’s real estate industry is pulling back its ambitious forecast for 2023. The latest forecast shows home prices falling to an average sale price of $662,100 in 2023. It would be a decline of 5.9% (-$41,513) from last year. However, compared to their forecast at the start of 2022, their 2023 expectations dropped 18.4% (-$148,831) lower. It’s a sharp change in perspective after the reality of stretched affordability hit.
Canadian Households See A Big Drop In Real Wages Ahead: Bank of Canada
Canadian households see a big drop in their income ahead. A quarterly Bank of Canada survey shows households see inflation rising 7.2% over the next year. At the same time they anticipate their wages will rise just 2.5% over the same period. This means the average household expects to lose over 4 points of buying power over the next year. When people anticipate falling wages, they tend to tighten spending and amplify downturns.
Canadian Real Estate Prices To Continue Falling In The Near-Term: RBC
RBC, Canada’s largest bank, sees home sales stabilizing but expects prices to fall further. The bank points to home sales 25% lower in 2022, and doesn’t anticipate a further drop. Home prices are a different story—stretched affordability and higher rates are still challenges. They see those issues continuing to bring home prices lower, at least in the near-term.
Canadian Mortgage Debt Grinds To A Halt After Hitting Over $2 Trillion
Canada’s mortgage credit binge is slowing, but remains unusually high volume. Residential mortgage debt hit $2.08 trillion in November, up 7.6% (+$147.5 billion) from last year. Since peaking in February 2022, annual growth has slid lower every month. Slower isn’t slow though, with the growth rate still much higher than before 2020. Even with much higher interest rates.
Canadian Real Estate Prices Haven’t Dropped This Fast Since 2009
Canadian real estate prices are falling at one of the fastest rates in well over a decade. A benchmark, or typical, home fell to $717,000 in December, down 7.5% (-$58,100) from last year. That makes it the largest correction, in terms of annual growth, since 2009. Despite seeming like a small drop, home prices have fallen 17.4% (-$151,300) since hitting the peak less than a year ago.
