Time for your cheat sheet on this week’s top stories.
Canadian Real Estate
Canadian Immigration Changes To Double Population Growth Rate: BMO
Canada’s looking to boost its immigration, but it hasn’t framed it that way. Officially, the target is to add 380,000 new permanent residents per year for 2027-29. However, BMO economists estimate that special measures push the total to 660,000 for 2027. The massive change has the bank nearly doubling its population growth forecast. Though it’s worth distinguishing between a target and reality. Canada’s foreign student tapering only began after applications dropped sharply, suggesting exhausted demand.
Canadian Housing Affordability’s Record Recovery May End Soon: NBF
Housing affordability across Canada has made a record 11 straight quarters of improvement. That sounds impressive, but the details are less flattering. Mortgage payments on a typical home would consume 50.9% of a median household’s income at this level. Even with the record length of improvements, this is still one of the worst markets for buyers in history. National Bank economists warn this may also be as good as it gets in the near-term, as mortgage rates are set to climb.
Canada To Add 200,000 Permanent Resident Spots, Housing Boost Limited
Canada’s immigration plan will boost permanent residents 50% higher than the headline data suggests. It’s seen as a boost to the economy, especially housing demand, but that may not be the case. The added capacity targets those already in the country and looking to stay. While this can mean less churn and ultimately more people, demand doesn’t get a direct boost. Their consumption is already reflected in the current data.
Ontario Real Estate
Ontario Property Tax Arrears Hit 24-Year High, Brampton Leads At 11.9%
Ontario property tax arrears are at a 24-year high, driven by Toronto’s suburbs. Filings show the property tax arrears rate hit 7.2% of the $34.1 billion in levies for 2025, up 2.46 points since 2019. The rate is now at its highest level since 2001, but there’s an important distinction here. Today, the rate is climbing, but back then it was falling after the early ‘90s real estate bubble popped. Coincidentally, property taxes just made their biggest increase since the early ’90s.
Toronto Real Estate
Over 1 In 8 Greater Toronto Rental Units Sit Vacant As Completions Hit A Record
Greater Toronto’s rental construction boom means a lot of supply is sitting empty. The often-reported vacancy rate for stabilized purpose-built rentals fell from 5.4% to 3.0% in Q3. The catch is stabilized, which excludes buildings that have never hit 95% occupancy. In a normal market, it may not be a big difference; including all purpose-built units means a 13.3% vacancy rate. Even with 1 in 8 units vacant, there are 34,545 more currently under construction, nearly half of the units being built across Canada. So far, there’s been minimal progress on prices, but that can change fast with a record supply glut on the way.
