Canada’s continuing its immigration experiments but this time it’s a little more discreet. Ottawa’s 2027-29 immigration plan maintains the current regular permanent resident admissions target. However, BMO notes that existing and new special measures mean the number of permanent residents will be much higher. As a result, the bank’s economists have nearly doubled their population growth forecast. 

Canada’s Immigration Measures Lift Effective Target To 660,000

Ottawa’s immigration target may look conservative, but it’s much bigger than the fragmented announcements suggest. The 2027-2029 immigration plan maintains 380,000 admissions annually, but BMO projects the target is actually much higher than the headline numbers suggest. 

“While Ottawa maintains permanent resident targets of 380k per year, special one-time measures (from both the 2025 and 2026 budgets) build significantly on that amount,” explains BMO senior economist Robert Kavcic.  

Canada Hopes To Attract A Lot More Permanent Residents 

Permanent residents: actual admissions, target admissions, and special measures.

Source: BMO Capital Markets; StatCan; Budget 2026. 

He notes that special measures in Budget 2025 and 2026 add roughly 280,000 temporary-to-permanent resident transitions in 2027. “In other words, roughly 280k temporary residents will be granted permanent resident status in 2027, with officials suggesting this will be on top of new admissions,” says Kavcic. After the special measures, BMO puts the total closer to 660,000 permanent residents.

BMO Sees Population Growth Rebounding To Nearly 1% In 2027

The measures mean population growth is seen bouncing much higher than previously forecast. BMO now expects the population to expand roughly 1% in 2027, nearly double the 0.5% they previously anticipated. “In effect, because those temporary residents are now not leaving, they will not drag on population growth as previously expected,” explains Kavcic. 

The special measures largely aim to keep people already in the country. Converting their status won’t immediately add housing demand, but fewer departures would mean fewer homes freed up for the temporary resident inflow. This reduced churn can boost housing demand more than previously anticipated, even without changing the headline immigration target.   

“This is an abrupt change in the near-term outlook,” says Kavcic, questioning whether repeated one-time measures make planning harder for the Bank of Canada, homebuilders, and municipalities. 

Since housing takes years to build, the read is that policymakers are trying to overshoot supply with further demand stimulus. However, the state of the Canadian economy is very different from last time it was attempted. With Canadians leaving in record volumes to find opportunities elsewhere, the ability to retain and attract immigrants may be harder than simply raising a quota.