Time for your cheat sheet on this week’s top stories.
Canadian Real Estate
Canada’s Real Estate Correction Is Now The Largest In History
The Canadian real estate correction is now the largest in history, according to BIS data. Data from the organization known as the “central bank for central banks” shows Canadian home prices have dropped 20.1% from Q1 2022 to Q1 2026. Adjusting for inflation, the agency’s data shows prices have dropped 29.3%, putting prices roughly where they were in 2016. The correction in real terms is significantly larger than the one seen in the late 1980s and post-2008, and even with that drop, prices remain out of reach for most young adults.
Canada’s Latest Real Estate Investor Report Isn’t Just Bad—It’s Reckless
Statistics Canada’s latest housing report looks at competition among investors in rentals. Using a standard regulator-preferred model, they determined every major city is highly competitive. In fact, real estate investment is the most competitive industry ever. Adding to the good news is their model supported that large institutional investors have virtually zero impact at their scale. Skeptical? There’s good reason to be, as the report’s approach was riddled with issues, from data veracity to a fundamental understanding of market dynamics.
Canadian Job Growth Hasn’t Been This Slow Outside of Recession
Canadian employment came in stronger than expected, but most analysts are missing a red flag. StatCan data shows employment rose 0.1% (+18.0k jobs) in June, smaller than the temporary boost FIFA created. Over the past year, employment climbed just 0.4% (+90.3k), marking the slowest pace for the month since 2020. It’s actually so slow that annual employment growth for June hasn’t been weaker outside of recession.
Canadian Insolvency Filings Rebound To 4th-Highest May On Record
There were 12,536 insolvencies filed across Canada in May, marking the fourth-highest for the month in 39 years. Consumer insolvencies were the vast majority, representing 97% of the total. While business filings seem smaller in contrast, they were still the second-highest for the month in over a decade. Signs of “silent” business failures suggest these numbers are likely downplaying the stress.
Ontario Real Estate
Ontario Consumer Insolvencies Hit Highest Level Since The Financial Crisis
Ontario households are starting to crack under the weight of excessive debt. The OSB received 2,405 insolvency filings from Ontario in May, the second-largest May on record. The province is now one of the biggest drivers of the national surge, growing 46% faster than the national rate. Ontario has historically outperformed the national economy, but that’s quickly changing—potentially a warning that structural risks are forming.
