North American lumber prices are soaring, sending homebuilding costs higher with it. The good news is, relief may be just around the corner. BMO Capital Markets updated its Benchmark Western Spruce-Pine-Fir (SPF) lumber forecast for April. The bank sees lumber prices dropping in the second half of the year. By 2022, they expect lumber prices […]
Canadian real estate prices are now beyond frothy, and the government says that’s fine. They believe they can prevent home prices from falling, and let incomes catch up. If you’re in government or banking, you may have already seen me explain how impossible this is. If you haven’t, this is known as the “soft landing” […]
Saying Canadians are confident in the real estate market is a bit of an undersell, according to a big bank. RBC shared the results of its Spring Housing Poll this week. The findings were… nothing short of exuberant. The survey found most Canadians only see home prices rising soon. Most households now only believe a […]
A Canadian official in charge of housing policy confirmed the current market is not an accident. Instead, it’s a conscious decision where the government picked the winners and losers. TVO aired an interview with MP Adam Vaughan yesterday, discussing housing policy. In the interview, Vaughan, who helps oversee the CMHC, said price drops are not […]
Time for your cheat sheet on this week’s most important stories. Canadian Real Estate A Large Canadian Bank Just Blamed The Bank Of Canada For The Property Bubble One of Canada’s largest banks attributed the country’s frothy real estate market to the central bank. BMO wrote, “a surge in demand started by the pandemic, but […]
Academics theorize why developers won’t create more purpose-built rental housing. They cite everything from user behavior to policy restrictions. For some reason, they never think to just ask a real estate developer candidly. A few weeks ago I shared a popular Twitter thread on real estate rental development. Not a lot of people realize real […]
Canadian banks have begun to weigh in on new mortgage changes, and they aren’t optimistic. Earlier today, the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) announced a revision to the uninsured mortgage stress test. The change will shrink supersized mortgage budgets, reducing the number of over-leveraged borrowers. Two of Canada’s largest banks say it’s […]
Canadian real estate markets may have got the first big cooling measure today. The Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) announced they are moving to tighten uninsured mortgage leverage. The organization that regulates Canada’s banks, eased the mortgage stress test last year. Now that it’s clear mortgages don’t need stimulus, they’re looking to […]
One of the country’s top economists is calling bullsh*t on the supply-price narrative. BMO chief economist Douglas Porter sent a client note disputing an inventory shortage. He thinks it’s important to “crush” two myths about Greater Toronto’s blowout home sales in March. Let’s dive into that take. Myth 1: Last March Sales Were Distorted By […]
One of Canada’s largest banks made an unusual move — they called out the role the Bank of Canada (BoC) played in the property bubble. Well, they subbed them. BMO senior economist Robert Kavcic sent clients a housing analysis this morning. He attributes the transition from a hot market to one that’s going to burn […]
