The Canadian economy is recovering so fast, the central bank may soon have to hike rates to cool it down. That’s the take from the National Bank of Canada (NBC), who accelerated their forecast timeline today. They expect output gap closure by the middle of next year, as well as inflation running hot. Rising inflation […]
Canadian real estate prices are rising at rates even the banks are warning about. There’s a lot of reasons this is happening, but one rarely discussed is the supersized borrowing from the Government of Canada (GoC). A lot of cash was needed during the pandemic, but Canada’s discretionary spending topped the G20. To help facilitate […]
The pandemic didn’t slow Canadians from borrowing more to buy real estate. In fact, mortgage data may be showing the exact opposite. Statistics Canada (StatCan) data shows residential mortgage credit hit a record in 2020. Typically during a recession credit growth is expected to slow down. Last year saw the opposite, with declining rates pushing […]
Canada’s central bank’s rate announcement was brief, but had a lot of details for investors to unpack. Bank of Canada (BoC) announced they would be making no changes to rates at this time, as widely expected. Two details did stand out though – housing, and quantitative ease (QE). The central bank is surprised by housing […]
Canada’s largest bank believes higher rates are a lot closer than most are hoping for. RBC senior economist Josh Nye is forecasting the Bank of Canada (BoC) will hike rates sooner than expected. The forecast is based on higher inflation and a recovery ahead of schedule. The economist is watching for a gradual reduction in […]
Canada’s central bank isn’t really that worried about real estate, it appears. Bank of Canada (BoC) governor Tiff Macklem held a Q&A after a speech for the Edmonton and Calgary Chambers of Commerce yesterday. During the Q&A, the governor dismissed concerns about an overheated housing market. In fact, he welcomed its contribution to the economy […]
Canada is searching for inflation, but the whole index gets a massive boost by removing mortgage interest. Statistics Canada (Stat Can) consumer price index (CPI) made a slow increase in January. However, if one were to exclude falling mortgage interest rates, inflation jumps by almost a third. Canada’s CPI Is 1% Higher Than Last Year […]
Canadian real estate sales are hitting record levels, but mortgage growth is slowing. Bank of Canada (BoC) data shows outstanding mortgage credit hit a new all-time high in July. Even with the new high and various factors working in its favor, the rate of growth is still decelerating. Mortgage Debt Reached Over $1.69 Trillion In […]
One of the world’s largest risk advisory firms says Canadian real estate won’t be spared. Moody’s Analytics released their Canadian Q2 forecast, showing how COVID-19 will impact the Canadian economy. The firm advised their institutional clients that real estate will be impacted, with even an optimistic scenario showing price declines. Risk Assumptions and Baselines First, […]
Canadian bank regulators are jumping into action to contain economic risk. The Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) made emergency changes last week in response to COVID-19. These changes include dropping the update to the mortgage stress test, lowering domestic stability buffers, and asking banks to halt share buybacks and dividend hikes. Mortgage […]
