Canadian household budgets aren’t just getting hit by inflation — they’re taking home less too. Statistics Canada (Stat Can) data shows household disposable income contracted in Q4 2021. This is the second consecutive quarter disposable income dropped, and it’s been a significant decline from the peak. Not great, but expected as the economy improved and […]
Canada’s central bank is overwhelmingly expected to hike interest rates aggressively. We polled the country’s top finance experts for their overnight rate forecast. Nearly all expect the Bank of Canada (BoC) to hike rates tomorrow. They don’t see the rate hikes ending there, though. Over the next year, they see interest rates rising aggressively to […]
Canadian mortgage borrowers still in the market aren’t worried about higher interest rates, apparently. Bank of Canada (BoC) data shows new mortgage loan annual growth was negative in December. The majority of the remaining activity was issued with variable interest rates. It might not be obvious, but variable mortgage costs are essentially a bearish bet […]
Time For your cheat sheet on this week’s most important stories. Canadian Real Estate Canadian Real Estate Bubble Sentiment Is Collapsing Fast: US Federal Reserve Data Canadian real estate bubble sentiment is collapsing but remains frothy. A US Federal Reserve model shows Q3 2021 was the 26th quarter the market showed exuberance. That means the […]
Global markets are puking as the Ukraine-Russia conflict presents global uncertainty and risk. BMO chief economist Douglas Porter wrote a special brief to clients today, explaining this doesn’t change much at this point. BMO still expects the Bank of Canada (BoC) and the US Federal Reserve to hike interest rates in March. The influence on […]
Expectations for higher inflation in Canada are rising as it spreads to more components. BMO Capital Markets’ latest forecast contained upward revisions for the consumer price index (CPI). The measure of inflation is expected to rise faster this year as the commodity prices soar. The gap between the Bank of Canada (BoC) forecast and BMO […]
Canada’s economic recovery has hinged on real estate, and mortgage debt highlights it. Data from the Bank of Canada (BoC) shows mortgage debt slowing in growth in December 2021. However, slowing at the current annual growth rate might not look like much, growing at double the rate of GDP. Mortgage debt has grown so fast, […]
Time for your cheat sheet on this week’s top stories. Canadian Real Estate Madness Or Supply? Canadian Real Estate Prices Don’t Add Up: BMO Canadian real estate prices are growing even faster than during the late ‘80s bubble. Annual growth reached 28% in January 2022, with prices rising a whopping 46.4% over the past two […]
Canadian real estate prices are soaring, but the fastest growth is not coming from big cities. BMO chief economist Douglas Porter tells clients to really think hard about this growth. Home prices are now rising even faster than at the peak of the 1980s real estate bubble. Most of that growth isn’t coming from emerging […]
There’s a good reason you might be feeling Canada’s economic recovery, and that’s because of how it’s measured. Canada’s gross domestic product (GDP) ripped higher in Q3 2021 and it’s just shy of the pre-2020 peak. Aggregate GDP measures are only useful for the size of an industry, not how it impacts people. For the […]
