Mortgage delinquencies are rising across Canada, but nowhere quite like Ontario. Canadian Bankers Association (CBA) data shows mortgage arrears continued to rise in November. Ontario has seen its rate more than quadruple in just over three years, hitting the highest level since 2012.
Ontario Mortgage Delinquencies Soar To 13-Year High
Ontario mortgage arrears rate: Mortgages at least 90 days past due, as a share of total.
Source: CBA; Better Dwelling.
Ontario mortgage delinquencies are climbing fast. The arrears rate hit 0.26% in November, rising 8 basis points within the past year to the highest level since mid-2012. To put it bluntly, mortgages at least 90 days past due climbed 20% faster than total mortgages held by CBA member banks in the past year.
Even more concerning is that the sharp rise is building on a trend. The Ontario arrears rate fell to a record low of 0.06% during the pandemic, almost exclusively due to pandemic supports that allowed most borrowers to escape the arrears label. Since then, the rate has surged 20 basis points, more than quadrupling in just over three years.
Canadian Banks Have Seen Ontario Mortgage Arrears Climb 4x
Ontario mortgage arrears: Mortgages at least 90 days past due.
Source: CBA; Better Dwelling.
This isn’t just rate distortion—arrears are rising aggressively in raw numbers too. Banks reported 5,622 Ontario mortgages in arrears in November, up 1.3% from the month before, and 45.2% higher than last year. It works out to a 350.8% jump from the record low, and the most since August 2011.
The pain is just a little more intense for banks that are losing market share. Since hitting a record 2.2 million Ontario mortgages in December 2022, CBA members have seen their book shrink by 1.61% as of November 2025. The vast majority of the drop, more than three-quarters, occurred in just the past year. Ontario’s decline isn’t just outpacing the national trend, but it’s also accelerating.
Most of the Canadian real estate slowdown has been an Ontario story, and delinquencies play a major role. Delinquencies are often mistaken for a measure of borrower health, but they’re actually a liquidity signal. Even in hot markets, households under stress can sell before hitting the 90-day arrears mark.
It only becomes a problem once qualified buyers disappear. With Ontario home sales grinding to historic lows, especially in Greater Toronto, rising delinquencies are expected. Until the gap closes between seller expectations and buyer budgets, liquidity will likely remain tight. And that means persistent upward pressure on Ontario’s mortgage arrears rate.
The journalists fear mongered in the 90s and now people can barely remember if anything happened. Buy a home, you’ll be glad (and won’t care in 20 years).
This is bad advice. Invest in productive, liquid, and diversified assets. Don’t try to catch a falling knife! Don’t saddle yourself with debt into perpetuity. Wait until your income to house price is far more reasonable!
That’s the WORST advice one can give. We are still in the middle of 2nd biggest real estate bubble in the world. This won’t end well for those who bought in the last 5-10 years and overpaid. Wait on the sidelines, the correction is far from being over. And btw, the journalists are doing the exact opposite of fear mongering ; they are basically a mouthpiece for the real estate lobby and always have the same speech: “now is a great time to buy, don’t wait”.
Mortgages make up a big part of our investment portfolio, so this would normally be concerning. Good thing the government is buying… is it $60b in mortgages this year? They’re just going to roll it into the national debt with no visibility, which is why the CMHC isn’t in charge of the BCH slush fund.
To add to the excellent data draw—that’s just uninsured mortgages and bank lenders. Underperforming mortgages are often sold to avoid having this on their books, and I don’t believe insured mortgages are even factored since it’s considered an off book liability (gov holds the liability).
More defaults than you think.(TM).
We just need to keep telling ourselves that it’s a really low number… The fact that it’s rising exponentially shouldn’t be a concern at all….