Canadian consumers are getting crushed by their epic debt, and Ontario is ground zero. Office of the Superintendent of Bankruptcy (OSB) data shows consumer insolvencies in the province surged in March. Having outpaced national insolvency growth since 2019, it’s been capturing a larger share of total filings—and just saw the most monthly filings since 2010.
Ontario Consumer Insolvencies Hit Highest Level Since 2010
Ontario consumer insolvency filings.
Source: OSB; Better Dwelling.
Consumer insolvency filings in Ontario climbed 10.2% to 5,109 filings in March, 19.4% higher than last year. This marks the highest monthly volume since 2010, just at the tail end of the Global Finacial Crisis. It’s a rarely seen level, with the only historical precedent being 2009 and the first four months of 2010.
Near-crisis insolvency levels make it harder to square the data with the “everything’s great” narrative policymakers are spinning. But let’s gloss over that today.
Ontario also accounts for a larger share of Canada’s consumer insolvencies. The province represented 37.9% of filings in April, up 2.6 points from last year and 5.7 points from April 2019. That means Ontario households are cracking faster than average—and the problem started long before the trade war.
Ontario’s Share of Total Insolvencies Is Also Surging
Ontario’s insolvency surge isn’t just a one-month blip. The province saw 54,618 filings over the past 12 months, up 6.1% compared to last year and the highest level since 2020. Growth is running roughly 45% faster than the national average, meaning Ontario consumers are taking a bigger slice of the national insolvency pie.
Ontario’s debt stress is also becoming more entrenched. Over the past 12 months, the province accounted for 38.1% of national consumer insolvencies. That share is up 0.7 points from last year and a staggering 6.8 points from 2019. In other words, filings in Ontario have grown 21.7% faster than average since the before times.
Canadian consumer insolvencies are rising, expected at this point of the business cycle. What stands out is Ontario’s rapid deterioration, a sign households in the province are finding the environment more challenging than the rest of Canada. Trade issues may be taking up most of the political oxygen, but the erosion started well before they were in full swing. The data doesn’t directly address the cause, but young adults fleeing Ontario in near-record numbers for more affordable regions offers at least one clue.
When over two million people are added in less than two years and price fundamentals are detached from realities in our economy that is inevitable…we can play the blame game as much and as far wide as we can and try but the reality will always catch us all…
The problem incanada is that everyone is looking for someone to dump the mess we are in on. For carney and ford, trump popped up at just the right time. However, the media frenzy over trade doesn’t match the reality.
First of all, Ontario is the worst trade deficit with the usa in canada, before the trade war. Now that may have been using the gta as distribution hub, but alberta, sask, nfld, quebec all have much higher trade surpluses with the usa, and ab is by far the most successful trade partner with the usa in canada, and highest gdp per capita, despite the Trudeau carney govt doing everything they could to hurt that economy?
So clearly Ontario, and bc have a major domestic issue. Simply put, residential real estate and govt are not a real economy. With dwindling jobs, no real gdp outside of those two sectors, and massive population growth, it was always just a matter of time …
The real concern is that the end of ‘good’ times for Ontario are likely to be bad for everyone else. Instead of seeking to mitigate the oncoming carnage no one in central canada has seen in 40y, we have ‘leaders’ obsessed with phony nationalism.
Why not start telling our govt coddled banks that they are going to have to modify mortgages here, and lose money to take one for the team, instead of wasting money and time in europe buying guns?
Big mess, with no plan to resolve?