Vancouver

Vancouver Real Estate Just Had The Worst September In 27 Years

Vancouver real estate continued to cool off, after years of record gains. Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) numbers show price growth continued to decelerate in September. The slowing price growth is attributed to a rise in inventory, and one of the worst months for sales in decades.

Vancouver Real Estate Prices Make The Smallest Advance Since 2013

The price of a typical home in Vancouver is slightly higher than last year, but is down from last month. The composite benchmark reached $1,070,600 in September,  down 3.1% from the month before. The change represents an increase of 2.2% when compared to the same month last year. A monthly decrease is normal this time of year, but dropping nearly $13,000 in a month has still gotta hurt.

Greater Vancouver Composite Benchmark Price

The price of a typical home across Greater Vancouver, in Canadian dollars.

Source: REBGV, Better Dwelling.

The annual increase shows an interesting trend of rapidly decelerating price gains. The 2.2% wouldn’t be a bad gain, if it wasn’t the seventh consecutive month of price deceleration. The gain is the slowest for Vancouver since November 2013.

Greater Vancouver Composite Benchmark Price Change

The annual percent change of a typical home across Greater Vancouver.

Source: REBGV, Better Dwelling.

Vancouver Real Estate Sales Fall Over 43%

Greater Vancouver real estate sales had one of the toughest month for sales in years. REBGV reported 1,595 sales in September, a 17% decrease from the month before. This represents a 43.5% decrease compared to same month last year. The board noted that this is 36.1% below the average for the September 10 year average. They left out that it’s the worst September in 27 years. Must have slipped their minds.

Greater Vancouver Composite Sales Vs. Listings

The number of homes sold vs total inventory in Greater Vancouver.

Source: REBGV, Better Dwelling.

Vancouver Real Estate Inventory Jumps Over 38%

New listings in Greater Vancouver slipped lower. REBGV reported 5,729 new listings in September, up 36% from the month before. The change represents a 1.8% decline from last year. The month over month decline is largely expected, the annual decline wasn’t. Despite the annual decline, inventory did make a huge leap higher.

The number of homes listed for sale in Greater Vancouver  jumped to the highest levels in years. REBGV reported 13,084 active listings in September, a 10.7% decrease from the month before. The change led the total number of active listings to be 38.2% higher than the same time last year. That’s a big change for a market notorious for having scarce inventory.

Fewer sales and more inventory led an important indicator to a threshold level. The sales to active listings ratio fell to 12.2%, just 0.2 points away from becoming a buyer’s market. Generally speaking, prices make year-over-year declines when the ratio falls below 12%. Currently the market is “balanced,” which means little when the ratio is making a rapid decline.

Vancouver real estate prices are are up, but the sudden change of mind from buyers could change that soon. There’s significantly fewer sales this year, as well as much more inventory. Price gains have already fallen close to the level of inflation.

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13 Comments

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  • Reply
    Vancouver Eats Its Young 3 weeks ago

    Quick Vancouver, get another low paying tech company to come to the region and sell the fact that people don’t get paid that much here!

  • Reply
    Victor 3 weeks ago

    Blame David Eby’s school tax. Penalizing wealth means there’s no incentive to buy.

    • Reply
      Ahmed 3 weeks ago

      This makes no sense, since the VAST MAJORITY of homes aren’t above $3 million. No one’s holding off on their $600k condo purchase because they’re scared it’s going to rise to $3 million too quickly, and they won’t be able to afford the tax.

  • Reply
    Mitch 3 weeks ago

    Temporary set back. Call me if prices ever drop more than 10%, otherwise the market is still up huge. You might save a buck or two, but it’ll never be “affordable” by traditional metrics, because Vancouver’s wealth isn’t measure by traditional metrics. It’s an investor town, and that isn’t measured by wage metrics.

    • Reply
      Kash 3 weeks ago

      You’re right! Up up and away. Prices can never come down, as Vancouver is different…

      • Reply
        Jay 3 weeks ago

        The immigrants will give us all their money! It’s just a small hiccup!

  • Reply
    Yuzheng 3 weeks ago

    Interest rates are cooling all markets, from Hong Kong to Vancouver. There’s fighting the trend, you can only be tricked into not seeing it temporarily.

  • Reply
    Alistair McLaughlin 3 weeks ago

    Headline in today’s Globe and Mail:

    “Mortgage growth plumbs 40 year lows”.

    Lowest mortgage growth in 40 years cannot be good for house prices. Not even in Vancouver. Unlike Jungle, most of us live in the real world, and understand that wealthy people buying houses with cash will not support the market forever, even in Vancouver and the GTA.

  • Reply
    Ron Davidson 3 weeks ago

    It always amazing me how we don’t learn from history. All bubbles are psychological and follow the exact same pattern. Goggle it and you will find Vancouver is looking at a 70 to 80% decline. Everybody talks about the totally fictitious soft landing but the reality is there has never in human history been a soft landing for any major financial bubble. On top of this Vancouver has not only the highest house prices relative to average income in the world but IN THE HISTORY OF THE WORLD. Approx. 40% of the lower mainlands GDP is directly and indirectly related to residential real estate. Once again the highest in the world. With real estate collapsing our unemployment rate will be 20 to 30%. People please educate yourself…….IT IS NOT DIFFERENT IN VANCOUVER.

  • Reply
    Ima Faque 2 weeks ago

    Have a read about the high level money laundering coverup going on in the Vancouver Real Estate market.
    http://cme4pif-thoughts.blogspot.com/2018/09/casino-2017.html

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