Vancouver real estate is seeing the worst sales in years, and detached homes were no exception. Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) numbers show detached sales continued to grind lower in August. The decline in detached sales, combined with a rise in inventory, helped to push prices tens of thousands of dollars lower.
Vancouver Detached Real Estate Falls Over $27,000
The price of a detached home continues to get cheaper across Greater Vancouver. REBGV reported a detached benchmark of $1,561,000 in August, dropping a massive $27,400 from the month before. The decline works out to annual decrease of 2.8% compared to the same month last year. If you’ve owned for longer than a year, that isn’t all that much in contrast to the rise. However, I don’t know a whole lot of people that can take a $27,000 decline in stride.
Greater Vancouver Detached Benchmark Price
The price of a typical detached home across the Greater Vancouver Real Estate Board, in Canadian dollars.
Source: REBGV, Better Dwelling.
The annual decline shows signs of further market deterioration. The 2.8% annual decline in August is worse than the 1.1% annual pace of decline seen the month before. Maybe they started making more land?
Greater Vancouver Detached Benchmark Percent Change
The 12 month percent change of a typical detached home across the Greater Vancouver Real Estate Board.
Source: REBGV, Better Dwelling.
Greater Vancouver Detached Sales Drop Over 37%
Greater Vancouver detached sales are coming in much lower than last year. REBGV reported 567 sales in August, down 11.9% from the month before. On an annual basis, sales are 37.1% lower than the same month last year. The monthly decline is seasonal and should be expected – the annual decline is not.
Greater Vancouver Detached Sales Vs. New Listings
The total number of detached sales, compared to the number of new detached listings per month.
Source: REBGV, Better Dwelling.
Greater Vancouver Detached Listings Jump Over 11%
Greater Vancouver saw an increase in new listings for detached homes. REBGV reported 1,463 new listings, down 15.1% from the month before. Even with the monthly decline, new listings are still 15.7% higher than the same month last year. The rising inventory pushed total inventory even higher.
The total number of detached listings showed significant growth in Greater Vancouver. REBGV reported 6,163 detached units for sale in August, down 4.21% from the month before. The decline wasn’t all that impactful, with inventory still 11.5% higher than last year. Higher inventory combined with lower sales isn’t great for price preservation.
The sales to active listings ratio (SNLR) remained in “buyers market” territory. The SNLR reached 9.2% in August, over 43% lower than the same month last year. When this indicator remains below 12%, prices are expected to fall further. It’s not until it rises above 20% that prices are expected to climb significantly. That means prices are likely to fall until there’s a big rise in sales, drop in inventory, or a combination of the two.
Greater Vancouver’s detached market isn’t looking too hot running into the winter months. Lower sales volumes are combining with climbing inventory, placing downward pressure on prices. Until these variables change, downward pressure is expected in the near term. Something Vancouver hasn’t seen for quite some time.
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Detached owners in Vancouver are screwed. Prices are way too high for locals (you’re looking at $2 million on the east side), and China’s credit is tightening fast. People overlook how these loans were used to fund the down payments here.
Ian, word is born. China cash left the party in the spring with only the leftovers to keep the music playing. P2P lending is finally imploding on the mainland, which I’d like to note I called out months ago, so it is waaaaay worse than just a bit of capital being taxed. There is literally no more fucking money.
Vancouver is a shiiiiitt slurry of bad money. The sad part is everyone is so cheery, positive and carefree out there; I assume the onslaught will be the equivalent to a room full of teletubbies being ripped apart by Rottweilers. Tick tock. BD4L.
Land is an investment that may not immediately pay off. Vancouver is the most desirable city on the west coast of Canada, and one of the few employment hubs that are still growing. As long as Canada has national healthcare (long life expectancy), an older demographic, and large immigration – there will always be pressure on prices to move higher.
Did you read that off a realtor’s brochure dropped in your mailbox this morning? Or are you the one dropping them off?
you realise you can still be correct even if we see a 35% drop in price, right?
the issue is price is over speculated. Not that housing shouldn’t grow.
Time will tell … although my opinion is your are dead wrong. No more dirty money and tighter capital control out of China means no more irrational exuberance. Now we all play in the same sand box where almost all money has equal value. So everyone may now see how badly Vancouver Real Estate is overvalued (in a bubble). Land is an investment but if you bought high you will probably not see a return in your lifetime (or your children’s) if you manage to hold on to it. The only people not thinking this way are Speculators who bought at the height of the chaos and Realtors … but what choice do they have. Pray and believe or ??
And please, spare us the nonsense about how national healthcare makes homes in Vancouver more valuable. Any foreign buyers who can afford $2 million homes can afford health insurance anywhere in the world.
This reads more like a prayer than a statement of fact.
You guys in VCR are screwed. I don’t live there but I’ve looked at some listings, at the suggestion of others who were equally shocked/entertained. I mean, you have to give your a shake when you look at what $1 mill will buy…or won’t buy there. It is absolutely crazy! It’s a nice place and all, but still; wtf. Btw – The GTA isn’t much better, just a little less amusing.
This is a common problem among the most cities worldwide. In BC, the problem is the supply side and city planning with regards to increase population. City planning to accommodate more homes need to proactive and not reactive, improve and speed up rezoning and development processes which takes way too long and tedious thereby delaying construction, introduce and enforce speculation tax ie flipping tax. No flipping of property for 5 years after purchase. First time homeowners loan rate pegged at lowest rate possible for 15 years to improve affordability. Finally, improve infrastructure ie transport, schools, hospitals and increase commercial and industrial areas in each city and municipal. The government must attract foreign investment to BC to improve income to be in line with home affordability ie a home purchase price cannot exceed 2.5 times a combined homeowners annual income. This is very basic and I hope the citizens of BC will vote in a responsible government to do these basic functions.
What population growth – Vancouver has whole neighborhoods of million dollar homes sitting empty.
There is no supply problem there is a greed problem
https://www.thestar.com/vancouver/2018/06/24/in-one-of-west-vancouvers-nicest-neighbourhoods-nobodys-home-except-dust-bunnies-and-raccoons.html
For years people were told the price increases were not sustainable. Everything we read said be prepared for a 20% correction. If 2.5% is hurting then people are in for a world of trouble.
You have to realize what caused this rise of price in the first place…It was trillions of dollars of cheap money sloshing around the world…A lot of it went into the stock market and real estate.. . This is now ended. These bubbles are about to explode…
Thanks to me I saved Wall Street by printing trillions of dollars. Now everyone is so wealthy! A house is no longer a home but an investment vehicle for the uber rich to store their billions from QEs.