Toronto

Toronto Real Estate Sales Jump Over 9%, Still Down Significantly From Normal

Toronto real estate continues to trend higher, but isn’t quite there yet. Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) numbers show prices advanced in June, and are a few points below the high. The rise in aggregate price measures, are largely due to an increase in demand for detached homes in the 905. Meanwhile “cheaper” Toronto condos are declining in sales volume.

Toronto Real Estate Prices Are Rising

The price of a typical, or benchmark, home across Greater Toronto advanced last month. TREB reported a benchmark of $798,500 in June, up 3.62% from last year. The City of Toronto benchmark reached $882,900, up 5.05% from last year. Every segment but condos experienced mild acceleration in the annual rate of growth.

Greater Toronto Benchmark Price

The price of a “typical” composite home across Greater Toronto.

Source: TREB. Better Dwelling.

The benchmark’s 12 month change accelerated across Greater Toronto. Both TREB’s 3.62% increase and the City’s 5.05% increase are higher than the month before. The annual rate of growth is now the largest since February 2018. The benchmark is still 2.57% lower than the peak reached in May 2017. At the current pace of growth, it would take just over eight months to catch up to the previous high. Of course, that would require prices nearly printing a vertical move for another 8 months, like they have been since February.

Greater Toronto Benchmark Price Change

The annual percent change of TREB’s benchmark price for all home types.

Source: TREB. Better Dwelling.

The median sale price moved higher as well. TREB reported a median sale price of $720,000 in June, up 5.57% from last year. The City of Toronto benchmark reached $741,000, up 7.93% from last year. A large part of this movement was due to a shift in sales. Detached housing surged higher, while condo apartment sales have been sliding.

The average price moved higher, but is back to decelerating year-over-year. TREB average sale price reached $832,703 in June, up 3.07% from last year. The City of Toronto average hit $915,481, up 5.16% from last year. The 12 month change in average prices are slightly lower than it was the month before. Once again, this trend is impacted in the shift to more detached homes from condo apartments.

Greater Toronto Average Sale Price Change

The annual percent change of the average sale price of all homes.

Source: TREB. Better Dwelling.

Greater Toronto Real Estate Sales Rise Over 9%, Still Unusually Slow

Greater Toronto real estate sales were higher than last year. TREB reported 8,860 sales in June, up 9.62% from last year. The City of Toronto represented 3,201 of those sales, up 3.39% from last year. Sales are higher than last year, but still fell 9.6% short of the 10 year median for the month. Sales are higher, but fell short of a typical June over the past decade.

Greater Toronto April Home Sales

The total home sales across TREB by year, for the month of April.

Source: TREB. Better Dwelling.

Two important takeaways in sales – the monthly change, and sales mix. The monthly decline in sales from May to June was the largest since 2017, when a policy change made the decline. There was no policy decline this year, so it’s a little strange. As for the sales mix, suburban detached homes made the largest increase. Meanwhile, relatively cheaper Toronto condos declined in sales volume. This is what’s largely behind the sudden acceleration of medians and averages for the region.

Real Estate Inventory Falls In The Suburbs, Rises In The City

New listings of Greater Toronto real estate for sale made a mild decline. TREB reported 15,816 new listings in June, down 0.66% from last year. The City of Toronto represented 5,401 of those listings, an increase of 3.01% from last year. Fewer new listings for suburban property, and more in the city.

Greater Toronto Sales To New Listings

The number newly listed units per month, in contrast to sales.

Source: TREB. Better Dwelling.

The new listings trend extended to total inventory, also called “active listings.” TREB reported 19,655 active listings in June, down 5.70% from last year. The City of Toronto represented 5,907 of those listings, up 2.76% from last year. Once again, the suburbs had less inventory, and the city received a bump higher.

Greater Toronto April Active Listings

The total of active home listings across TREB by year, for the month of April.

Source: TREB. Better Dwelling.

The general trend last month is the suburbs are warming up a little faster than the City of Toronto proper. The growth rate of sales was higher in the 905, and inventory declined as well. The rise of suburban sales means more detached homes in the 905 are being sold than condos in the City. The increase understandably pushed aggregate price numbers higher for the month.

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14 Comments

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  • Reply
    Marcus 2 months ago

    Not getting these numbers from TREB. There’s detached houses in my neighborhood selling for a significant mark down from comps in 2017. The prices don’t make sense in contrast the benchmark being just a couple points down from the all-time high.

    • Reply
      Vickie Lytton 2 months ago

      Agent from Vancouver saying the benchmark doesn’t make sense in fast moving markets. It showed a rapid climb, right before the collapse in Van.

      https://stevesaretsky.com/trying-to-understand-the-mls-benchmark/

      I believe when he first published it, it said the benchmark is “drunk and shows up late to the party.” Looks like he changed it. Wonder if that was a forced change, or voluntary.

    • Reply
      Trader Jim 2 months ago

      Struggling to figure this one out too. Neighbourhood I’ve been looking at is much cheaper than it was in 2017, not just 3% lower.

      • Reply
        J Liang 2 months ago

        The benchmark is inflation adjusted. So 2.3% from 2017 would need another 4% removed from the value. More like 6.3% down sound right?

      • Reply
        FOMO 2 months ago

        For me, Downtown Semi Houses (Cabbagetown, Trinity Bellwoods, Little Italy/Portugal) – are basically flat to up slight vs 2017, while condos are up 10-20% since Spring 2017

        Location seems to matter in Real Estate ? who knew.

        • Reply
          Ahmed 2 months ago

          Yet new condo prices are falling at a rate of $5,000/month, excluding additional incentives and offshore bulk discounts. Who knew?

      • Reply
        PrayForMojo 2 months ago

        Trader Jim, just curious, which neighbourhood is that?

  • Reply
    Trevor M 2 months ago

    Prices look to be a reflection of BOC CMB rate suppression. Why would the government say it’s unsustainable, then flood the mortgage market with more money though? Hm…

  • Reply
    Mark 2 months ago

    Every time a house is bought…. there is a Land transfer fee…..
    Is it possible to get access to the info on how much Money the City of Toronto has collected on Land Transfer fee compered to last year….. and number of transactions…..this will be the best and most objective way to know if the market is heating or cooling and is a Data that can not be manipulated.

    • Reply
      GTA Landlord 2 months ago

      The problem with that calculation would be the tiering of rates. Similar skew to using averages.

  • Reply
    Snarky 2 months ago

    CIBC thinks BOC will cut rates in October. Mo debt, mo problems

  • Reply
    Millennial Whinger 2 months ago

    What? No blue to give us some clues? Lol

    I will help.

    TREB is run by Realtors, the BoC is run by morons. Both have the same incentive; keep the party going and show positive numbers – fake it until you make it.

    Stimulus will be removed as soon as everyone’s wealth is destroyed by inflation. Housing prices will not fall but will remain inflated. We all become servants to our debts and taxes. Socialism is great. At least we have socialized mental health, we’re going to need it.

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