Hot spring market? Nope. Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) numbers show April was colder than usual, as demand continues to drop. Generally speaking, the market is seeing price moderation, lower sales, and rising inventory levels.
Greater Toronto Real Estate Prices Dropped Over 5%
The benchmark composite, the price of a typical home in Toronto, is down. TREB reported the benchmark across all regions is now $766,300, a -5.15% decline from last year. In the City of Toronto, that number now sits at $830,500, a 1.55% increase compared to last year. Yes, the city’s market is now 30% below CPI, Canada’s most frequently used measure of inflation.
Source: TREB. Better Dwelling.
CREA numbers show the drop in Greater Toronto prices is significant. The last time the benchmark declined this much, was 2009. Just a half point more, and it’ll be the largest decline since CREA has been publishing benchmarks.
Source: TREB. Better Dwelling.
The Median Toronto Real Estate Sale Price Dropped Over 9%
The median price is showing more significant declines. TREB reported a median sale price of $684,900, a 9.88% decline compared to last year. The City of Toronto saw the median sale price drop to $685,000, a 4.19% compared to last year. Median prices are more common internationally, and are a favorite indicator of Mainland Chinese buyers. Median sale prices do not account for the change in sales mix, so it’s not useful for telling you how much you’ll pay for a home. However, it is useful for gauging upgrade flow.
In a healthy market, people sell their home, and buy a more expensive one. This typically increases the median sale numbers. When this number drops, sellers may be waiting for less exuberance to re-enter the market, or selling secondary homes. If you’re trying to figure out if that’s the case, TREB’s seller survey did indicate 25% of sellers have no immediate plans to buy a new home.
Toronto Real Estate Average Sale Prices Dropped Over 12%
The average sale price continued into negative territory, but saw the rate of decline improve. The average sale price across TREB reached $804,584, a 12.4% decline compared to last year. It’s seasonally normal to see the rate of growth increase from March to April, last year being a notable exception. Once again, an average isn’t a marker of how much you would pay, it’s a stronger indicator of upgrade flow.
Source: TREB. Better Dwelling.
Toronto Real Estate Sales Drop 33%
Toronto real estate sales are still trending lower. TREB reported 7,792 sales in April, a 33% decline compared to last year. The City of Toronto saw 2,946 of those sales, a 29.25% decline compared to the year before. This is the slowest April for sales since 2003. Despite what people say, that means little without any context to inventory. Reserve your judgement for a sec.
Source: TREB. Better Dwelling.
Toronto Real Estate Listings Are Up 40%
New listings are down for Toronto real estate, but inventory levels are still swelling. TREB saw 16,273 new listings in April, a 24.76% decline from last year. The City of Toronto saw 5,299 of those new listings, a 24.46 decline compared to last year. This brings the sales to new listings ratio to 47%, which is technically a “balanced” market. That indicator is less useful when rapidly changing, since it could just be making a pit stop on the way lower.
Despite the decline in new listings, active listings continued to rise. TREB reported a 18,206 active listings, a 40.84% increase compared to last year. The City of Toronto saw 4,785 of those active listings, a 13.44% increase from last year. The decline in new listings didn’t impact overall levels, so much as the sales. You can judge now.
Source: TREB. Better Dwelling.
Low to negative price growth, lower sales, and higher inventory levels were all anticipated, coming off of a record year. However, the combination of stress testing, higher interest rates, and a huge segment of sellers looking to cash out, might make things a little sloppier than expected. On the upside, maybe Pitbull will perform Timber at the next Toronto Real Estate Wealth Expo.
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Classic market behavior. 25% of people think they can beat the system by all liquidating at the same time, which is usually what crashes a market. Good job speculators, you’re nailing this. lol
Spin baby, spin! The market is UP from last month. That’s a fact!
Sammy, prices will always rise from March to April on the composite. People don’t list expensive homes, they may have been sitting on for generations, in the winter. They start selling in the spring.
There’s a reason people normally only compare year over year. You couldn’t even flip a house a month after buying it. M-O-M is a useless indicator.
Anyone that thinks month to month actually matters in *any* market, whether it’s real estate, financial instruments, etc… doesn’t understand a thing about how markets work. Especially seasonal/cyclical markets like real estate.
Thanks for the stats update.
Toronto is not alone:
“Vancouver single-family home sales see weakest April in decades”
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/vancouver-real-estate-single-family-home-average-price-1.4645040
At the same time benchmark price for an apartment there rose 23.7 YoY.
This is ugly.
Blah, Blah, Blah. YOY is useless when fair housing plan was introduced and B20. how can you compare year over year when a massive government intervention was added? the real news is the price of actual resale homes and condos, which is still very high. I don’t see any crash at all when a volcano erupted (fair housing plan and B20) and people shrugged it off and are still buying high high priced property. My advice – get into the rental business. All these millenials are now renters for a generation.
Dumbest suggestion of the week. Cap rates are low, prices are declining, and the fair housing plan restricts rents from rising. I know! I’ll buy a rental unit, lose inflation, and face higher rates!
Seriously, terrible advice.
Hello Tim, I’m not sure if you understand anything you’re writing and I suspect you’re some sort of uber intelligent hamster using an ingenious prosthetic device…good on you, hopefully your quest for world domination is fruitful. To answer your question: How can we compare YoY? As opposed to what? Some sort of made up period like a 137.5 day rolling average, Jan 1 – May 14 vs today at lunch time? or maybe made up periods like comparing Snarfle vs Blumpkin…again, I commend you on your hamster-ish ambitions. Oh and why the heck would you get into the rental business with probably the lowest cap rate in the last 10 years? Because you can charge millennials $4000 a month to live in a 400sqft shack? Hmmm, I guess media salaries have tripled? Maybe in hamster land…you keep going with the whole ‘world domination’ and we’ll stick to everything else. BD4L
Back with a vengeance today eh Blue. Love it
It’s ironic, I was telling young people a few weeks ago, to save your money, get a few friends to live in a place, live on the outskirts of town, or with parents. Because by 2020, people will be begging you to buy places in downtown Toronto dirt cheap.
Lol! What terrible advice! The cap rate is very low and cash on cash return and return on investment from mortgage pay down is very low.
Price-rent metrics in Toronto are awful. There are no cash-flow positive properties to be had at current prices. Would you invest in a stock with a negative dividend? There’s no such thing of course, for good reason.
with 1.8% increases allowed LOL – LOSER I may double in manulife dividend alone!
nice blanket factless statements though….nice try kid…and quit using my name!
He’s under the impression B-20 erupted, even though pre-B-20 approvals are still floating around. The logic is strong with this one. 🤣
In april ? 🙂 Lol Dream on
April is the final month that outstanding preapprovals that were not subject to B20 will be around, as they are dead by May 1.
Dmitry is blissfully unaware that the benchmark is a blended, seasonally adjusted number, still factoring in pre-B-20 mortgages.
The benchmark is based on a 3 month moving average, and massaged in various other ways. So that price contains data going all the way back to February.
the real news –
“All those people who invested and told you what a great investment real estate was over the last few years” lied to your face to either make a commission or feel better about the bad decisions they have made…….unfortunately the average fam feels the runt of it, while investors sell and move on to the next hot thing and and location for RE………look what the press did with Montreal and Ottawa…….
Fools!
Indeed, the press cheerleading here in Ottawa is just gross. But it’s working. The Millennials are restless, and buying.
Ever hear of a 120 day pre approval?
I got a guy in Brampton who will give you one no questions asked!
For Dmitry
Sorry Grizz, but it’s May Already (more than 120 days since Dec 31st, 2017). All preapprovals are gone already. Let’s just admit that our pre-approval hope was just a mistake and get over it.
The numbers being report if are for the previous period, April. We will not know until mid-May or even June how much dumb money (a.k.a subprime ALT lending) is still floating around…I’ve said it before ALT lending will be our subprime…the domino effect that could take place will be horrific. Tick tock.
Blue, we have those numbers. They are updated pretty much real-time:
https://www.zolo.ca/toronto-real-estate/trends#footnote-pro-rated
If you want, we can definitely wait for the next report for May from TREB, but if we can trust zolo GTA condo sector started very strong in May.
The reported numbers were for April… which is within the 120 window…
Yes, from May we will see B20 in the full DOWN force. Jan-Apr saw an UP force of B20 from people pre-approved in 2017.
Xelan,
You realize it is May 4th and Zolo as of right now is sitting on May 1st data. You are basing your analysis on one day in May? Don’t be silly.
Two bald dudes on another site saying that market i s recovering cause GTA home prices surpass $800,000 for first time since May 2017. So whose is right? You or them other mofos?
I would ask them to point out one year where prices didn’t increase month over month December/January – to the end of the spring market, and then to point out one year where prices did not fall between the end of the spring market through to September.
Both the seasonal ups and downs that happen each year did so during the massive run up in prices we have had over the last decade. Seasonal ups and downs still happened while rates were trending down. Why would these seasonal factors (ups and downs) not be present on the way down?
Great question friend! They are right…I hope you don’t take this site too seriously, we’re mainly a bunch of lazy jerkoffs who live in a feedback loop because deep down we have no way of every being successful. Next door neighbours, friends, guys on the subway all seem to have a locked and loaded system to always make money in RE perpetually. We just look at silly things like salaries, construction, debt levels, migration, psychographics, interest rates and other plebian factors way below the level of a couple bald dudes, go with them…BUY NOW!!!…BD4L
King,
Here is the answer to your question:
https://tradingeconomics.com/canada/private-sector-credit
I just hear complaints. sky is falling. people are still buying real estate. please provide advice on how to make money in real estate instead of the universal easy answer to get out of real estate as fast as you can before crash. very boring. there are opportunities – please provide advice. all of you seem to be very intelligent without one concrete suggestion. just a big circle jerk of the same people interpreting charts without any suggestion of how to make money in this RE environment. please also provide your portfolio and credentials when answering. Mine. Own 2 detached home investment properties, 2 condos as investments. Equity of $2.3 million. Tax lawyer. Now Go…
This isn’t a “How to make money in real estate” site. It has never pretended to be that. If that’s what you were expecting, no wonder you’re disappointed. There are plenty of sites like that. Go find one. (Like you don’t have them all bookmarked already.)
you did not state your portfolio or qualifications. Therefore you are a loser with no credibility and nothing to say.
You want my qualification? I’m a fortune-teller. I can predict the future. Here is yours:
1) GTA housing crash
2) Bankruptcy
3) Alcoholism
4) Divorce
No charge. This one was pro bono.
LOL
Sometimes I regret there are no “Like” buttons here. Would be more fun.
Brilliant.
Divorce comes before alcoholism. Women don’t have patience today. Do I need to post my National 3 month moving average for wifey moods?
Welcome to the Internet. Land of everyone telling the truth. Eutopia of facts.
This site is not for profiteering, and its commentors are not your slaves.
This site reports on real estate data in a way millennials such as myself enjoy. If you don’t like the content, feel free to read one of the other 644 million websites. May I suggest PornHub? Jerk off.
you did not state your portfolio or qualifications. Therefore you are a loser with no credibility and nothing to say.
To quote Alistair M:
I’m a fortune-teller. I can predict the future. Here is yours:
1) GTA housing crash
2) Bankruptcy
3) Alcoholism
4) Divorce
No charge. This one was pro bono.
If you are looking for RE advice for i the GTA or Vancouver I would say that you could start a foreclosure construction company and be a contractor for the banks. You know, boarding up windows, fixing a few pathes of drywall that the former owner kicked a hole in. ETC. Met a guy at a resort in Costa Rica a few years ago who made a killing do just that with his business in Chicago.
Someone here also posted a link to a fund that is shorting Canadian housing. Up 40% this year already!
Grizzly Gus. you did not state your portfolio or qualifications. Therefore you are a loser with no credibility and nothing to say.
What’s your qualification Tim?
“Toronto property investor”?
Certificate of Achievement from Toronto Real Estate Wealth Expo 2015?
I already gave my credentials. the properties I own and my profession. You still haven’t given yours. why not? because you are professional troll? please provide portfolio and credentials. you are another hot air yapper with no credibility.
So you’re a tax lawyer? That’s awesome. I’m an astronaut, fighter pilot, best selling author, and hedge fund manager with $42 trillion US under management. That’s the great thing about the Internet. I can be anything I want.
Unless you’ve got a website and a full name, you’re just another troll like Professor of Real Estate. Remember him? The Order of Canada nominee who was lured back to Canada for a research chair in cell biology? The guy whose students “line up outside my office to kiss my ass every day”?
You’re starting to sound a lot like him. He was a broke loser who lived out his success fantasies via anonymous comments. Is that really who you want to emulate? Unless you’re just him under another pseudonym.
Hey Grizz,
I remember seeing the post about that fund but I can’t find it now. What’s the fund again? I’d love to hedge my house.
Hi Tim same boat as you are. Two detached and two condo since 2009. Two detached were inheriated…condos were bought 2009 with average 350 per square feet at harbour front area…..I am in early 30s but got in to market really early which pay off…at the end this site is useful if you are investing now to warn ppl but if you own for long time you are winner no matter what…you seems some one also invest long time ago like me…at the end just keep renting out…all four down town properties turning out to be cash flow Machine for me and rental demand always there…
That’s a valid strategy if you are cash flow positive, however it there will be correction indeed your equity may drop significantly, let’s say 30%.
Are you ready just to give away 30% of your equity? Instead you can try to get rid of it when the market is high and buy another one after correction.
Luckily RE market is not a stock market and those corrections don’t happen within minutes so you have some time to action accordingly.
This is not an investment advice, do your own math, just saying if there will be a correction you will definitely loose part of the equity in all your properties. If you are OK with it – fine.
thanks Mmr. Good for you. I am cash flow positive and will keep properties to then give to children. I worry about their future housing needs and purchased property as investment for them to maybe use if they get jobs downtown or at least to give to them in future. I don’t want to be caught that they need downpayment and ask me for $400K cash. I am already saving for their future. Most on this website look for crash to get into RE for cheap.
You, $2.3M guy would trust an investment advice from a random dude on this blog?
Your question just reinforces our believe that our whole RE market is doomed and 99% of investors are no different than gamblers lining up for 6/49 tickets.
Anyway, I will provide you a valid advice and it’s up to you to take it or not:
Hire a professional and hope he will do his job right to navigate you through those difficult times of Canadian RE. You definitely have something to loose.
Xelan. you did not state your portfolio or qualifications. Therefore you are a loser with no credibility and nothing to say.
Sorry for interrupting your AA meeting:)
where is the portfolio? just another bum with a lot of analytic understanding. millenial hot air yapper. why can’t you give portfolio or credentials? you are typical troll loser who provides lots of BS with no backup. what are your credentials? stfu Xelan.
Tim, you are a class act.
Insulting people that does not have the same opinion as you…….
Also trying to discredit others because they did not state their portfolio or qualification? In a comment section? Are you serious?
ROFL
Yet here you are once again Mmr
I pity those who own investment property and do not sell right now… they’ll regret it so much… the prices will not recover for at least a decade…
‘TREB reported 7,792 sales in April, ‘
How many real estate agents were active in the market?
Is that one sale per agent on average, three sales. one sale per two agents?
Are we going to see a shake-out of real estate agents?
Works out to less than 1 sale per 6 agents. Keep in mind, I work with agents that did 3-4 sales last month. Distribution is probably skewed to the top 20%.
There’s going to be some agents that will be looking for a new job soon.
Nice to see condo prices back up to record highs after a nice 5-6% pull back last summer – the market continues to act very rationally.
I should point out here that “Tim” is our friend Ketchup Chips/Zhang/Frank Diesel (among other pseudonyms). The lack of capitalization in the opening sentence – followed by ad hominem insults and boasts of his real estate wealth – is a dead giveaway.
I can’t imagine how much financial stress he’s under that he feels the need to troll the bearish housing blogs week after week. It comes off as a desperate attempt to convince himself that his highly leveraged investment property (let’s be honest – he only has one, not 4) will not bankrupt him.