Toronto

Toronto New Condo Sales Plummet, While Suburban Detached Homes Sales Rise

Greater Toronto new home sales climbed last month. Numbers from Altus Group show new home sales increased in March, attributed entirely to a rise in the 905. Don’t get too excited though. The only reason new home sales increased, was because the bar was set so low last year. Last month was still the second slowest March in over a decade.

Greater Toronto Detached Home Prices Fall, Condos Rise

Greater Toronto new home prices fell for single-family homes, but increased for condos. The price of new single-family home reached $1,116,640 in March, down 7.6% from last year. Condo apartments rose to $780,839, up 5.1% from the same month last year. The annual price decline for single-family homes is smaller than the month prior. So is the gain for condo apartments.

Greater Toronto New Home Sales Are Still Unusually Low

New home sales in Greater Toronto made a big jump from last year, but it was the second lowest March in over a decade. There were 2,314 sales in March, up 19.58% from the same month last year. Breaking that down, condo apartments represented 1,428 of the sales, down 12.92% from last year. The increase in sales were due entirely to the rise in single-family suburban home sales. This was the second slowest March since 2005, with the total of sales coming in 21.85% lower than third place.

Greater Toronto New Home Sales

Total March new home sales in Greater Toronto.

Source: Altus Group, Better Dwelling.

Breaking down the City of Toronto, we see the sales increase was mostly in the suburbs. The City of Toronto represented 1,041 of the new home sales in March, down 4.14% from last year. Condo apartments represented 953 of the sales, down 11.84% from last year. Single-family homes represented 88 of the units sold, up 1,660% from last year. Yes, there were only 5 single-family homes sold in March 2018, so it was an easy bar to clear for “growth.” Once again, it was still one of the slowest Marches on record – even with the massive 1,660% increase.

Greater Toronto New Home Sales

Total new home sales in Greater Toronto for March, by region.

Source: Altus Group, Better Dwelling.

New Home Inventory Surges To The Highest Level In Years

Inventory of new homes in Greater Toronto are on the rise. There were 16,798 new homes for sale in March, up 34% from last year. The majority were condo apartments, which represented 11,744 of the units, up 34% from last year. Single-family homes accounted for the other 5,054 units, up 36% from last year. This is the most inventory the region has seen for March in at least 3 years, with a rise of 65% from 2017’s number.

The pressure for prices to move higher is evaporating, as inventory rises faster than sales. The sales to active listings ratio (SALR) fell to 13.78% in March, down 11.26% from last year. Generally speaking, when the SALR is above 20%, it’s a seller’s market – prices are expected to rise. When it falls below 12% it’s a buyer’s market, and prices are expected to fall. Between 12% and 20% is balanced, and prices should be stable. The indicator isn’t flawless however, and caution should be exercised. This is especially true when the ratio makes quick movements higher or lower.

Greater Toronto New Home Sales To Active

The ratio of sales to active listings for new homes in Greater Toronto, for the month of March.

Source: Altus Group, Better Dwelling.

New home sales are rising compared to last year, but it was still one of the worst Marches in over a decade. Sales are showing growth, but were still below recession levels. That might be slightly problematic when you factor the larger population, and well… a lack of recession. Meanwhile, inventory is rising at a much faster pace than sales. This is relieving much of the pressure for prices to move higher.

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27 Comments

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  • Reply
    Icarus 5 months ago

    VERY important point is the GTA added almost 500k people between 2009 and 2019. For sales to stay at 2009, it should be a flag to people that we’re seeing a decline in sales today. What happens when we see a recession next year or the year after?

    • Reply
      D S 5 months ago

      Are you referring to the refugees who occupied 3 starts hotel in Toronto for the taxpayers’ money or folks who came here for contract work?

  • Reply
    Pat 5 months ago

    People that were staying out of the market last year are most likely going to be jumping back in. When you’re ready to buy a house, you don’t wait a few years for the prices to correct a few dollars.

    • Reply
      Ahmed K 5 months ago

      So a house isn’t an investment is what you’re saying? Because if you’re not concerned with prices, and financial value, it’s just a consumable.

    • Reply
      FYM 5 months ago

      You are a dumb cow

    • Reply
      JJ 5 months ago

      There is some truth to this logic, but at some point prices need to go low enough so people can actually afford them.

      I’m too lazy to find the article, but apparently you need to be in the top 10% of income earners in the GTA to afford a house (and condo wasn’t much better). You must realize that at some point there are only so many people who can “jump in”. The other 90% of the population simply cannot afford to jump even if they wanted to.

    • Reply
      John 5 months ago

      @Pat You’re right except you’re completely wrong.

      People stayed out of the market last year because it was too expensive to buy even if they wanted to.

      This year its still to expensive to buy.

      You already know prices need to drop for people to get back in… but if prices drop to a level of reasonable affordability will it not beg the question?

      Assuming $1400 per month rent, if the price of a home drops atleast $20,000 YoY what is the value proposition of buying? You just made $3200 by renting and didnt pay property tax or maintenance or loan interest.

      …the falling knife as it were…

    • Reply
      D S 5 months ago

      Only if you have a job… Rember that Canadian real estate is a big part of our economy and this will trigger lay-offs.

  • Reply
    jon snow 5 months ago

    ok so this looks like one of the best times to get in the market and buy for those who have been waiting.

    based on the March sales chart we see a pattern, each year there was a significantly low sales month (2006, 2009) it was followed by almost double the sales in the following years March…ie the rebound.

    just warning folks don’t wait too long to get in the market because we’ve had 2 low sale March’s and if you think there will be 3 in a row than good luck buying at these low prices.

    • Reply
      rustinpeace 5 months ago

      would love to but i cant afford anything outside a crime infested area

    • Reply
      JJ 5 months ago

      You have not connected any rational logic with this chart “pattern” (and I am using pattern VERY loosely here).

      Would you care to explain why 2019 volumes did not double after 2018?

    • Reply
      Gal 5 months ago

      I think what you may be missing is this is a decline is a non-recessionary decline. Sales bounced during the last price peak, but fell back down the year afterwards as prices continued to fall.

      For more information, see literally every real estate bubble. Orange County also sales rise in 2008. 10 years later, prices still haven’t recovered.

    • Reply
      Sam 5 months ago

      What low prices? Didn’t you get the memo? Benchmark is going up and up… to the moon!

    • Reply
      Jeepers Jones 5 months ago

      Darn tootin’. The folks at TD Bank are sayin’ once they take the cuufs off those crazy mortgage rules prices are going to bounce. Elsewise Chinese folks gonna take their money someplace else. That’s gonna hurt the farmers and the old folks who need the cash. Knuckle up and start climbing the property ladder. I’m talking to you snowflakes.

  • Reply
    DB 5 months ago

    John Snow..when you said folks I take it you meant folk…the upper income earner who is reading your post..don’t you get it…that 10 percenter who might actually be able to afford and want to buy in to an overpriced market…the market will take off once there is balance in the house/income ratio. It won’t be the speculator buyer who will fix this problem, in fact they are the ones who caused this mess.

  • Reply
    DB 5 months ago

    be weary of the travelling sales man in disguise as a consumer…a realtor may just be under the mask….telling us everything is fine go ahead jump in…
    Do it if it makes sense to do it and is easy on your budget…stress leads to more stress, disaster and divorce…PEACE !

  • Reply
    jon snow 5 months ago

    DB,
    if you think prices are expensive now…wait till you see what 2023-2024 prices look like!

    I expect there is a higher likelihood that Toronto avg salaries (in areas like Tech) will increase further to be on par with the US and bridge the home price/income gap thus resulting in more stable and upward pressure on home prices.

    • Reply
      SMH 5 months ago

      LOL this is great. I mean if it’s going to reach the moon by 2023-2024 why would you tell us about it instead of buying it yourself??? Why let your “secret” out of the bag and get yourself into bidding wars and such with other geniuses?

      Looks like someone’s trying to unload their garbage, and ain’t nobody picking it up.

      • Reply
        jon snow 5 months ago

        you dont have to take it so personal.

        You think the prices are going to stay down for another 5 years? that’s bad advice for any investor or home buyer to take, if you can find good value for a home now, than go for it because rates are low and less bidding wars…..maybe your just trying to ‘short’ the banks for REITS.

        Just look at what pre construction condo and homes sales in Toronto and GTA are selling for today that are projected to completed in the next few years. they all have higher price per square foot. Look at Mississauga square one condos, Park lawn and shore, Downtown core and even up in Vaughn. for detach houses you can look at Seaton pickering, Kleinburgh, Oakville and Milton to name a few. Anyone looking to buy a newly built home or condo the prices will be higher than they are today in 5 years. unless you are so pessismtic that you expect all these investors/buyers to sell at a loss as well.

    • Reply
      GB 5 months ago

      I think you are right on !! People have been under estimating demand for years. Just wait until Doug Ford cancels the foreign buyers tax – and helps the re-establishment the High Net Worth Investor program. People forget most Canadians own a home ! And they vote ! And they want their biggest asset to go up !!

  • Reply
    DB 5 months ago

    The unfortunate thing to consider is..To many indicators the country as a whole are not well. The tar sands, employment numbers that are all over the place,,part time full time up down etc, international trade disputes etc…housing peeking and now subsiding,,could be a collapse, hoping for a soft landing but falling none the less. The only good thing going on is that it seems for this year interest rates will hold or go lower….The down side to the interest rate comment is its a canary in the coal mine….something bad is about to happen I fear. look at Vancouver….But jon Snow I like your optimism your either very naive or your trying to trick a trickster…
    Jon if there is any advice I can offer you,,,Maybe you should be cautiously optimistic hold on to your money until the winter and then get in if the market is the same or better than it is now..if you see it coming down stay out of the market because in my opinion its a long way to the bottom, 5 yrs plus…unless it crashes.. then sooner.

  • Reply
    Zenity 5 months ago

    Look people all this bitching not going to do a thing. You need political action, protest during election year is a good start.

  • Reply
    Grim Reaper 5 months ago

    What is the average days on market separately for a house and condo to the sale and, if not sold, when taken off market/listing? Compare those stats with previous ones and that will help to reveal market “temperature”?

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