Toronto Detached Real Estate Prices Rise From Last Year… But Losses Get Bigger From Peak

Toronto Detached Real Estate Prices Rise From Last Year… But Losses Get Bigger From Peak

Greater Toronto’s detached real estate market is improving, but still far from recovered. Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) numbers show year-over-year improvements in June. Numbers are better compared to last year, but the market has a long way to go to get back to normal. The biggest improvements are in the 905, which is seeing a huge jump in sales compared to the City.

905 Detached Prices Rise, Toronto Prices Fall Further From Peak

The price of a typical detached home made a minor increase last month. TREB reported the detached benchmark reached $942,200 in June, up 1.47% from last year. The City of Toronto benchmark hit $1,135,200, up 1.41% from last year. The gains, while positive, are looking to come in lower than CPI this year.

Toronto Detached Benchmark Price

The price of a typical detached home across the Toronto Real Estate Board, in Canadian dollars.

Source: TREB, Better Dwelling.

The 12 month rate of growth improved, but there was a small note about detached prices in the City of Toronto. Both TREB and the City of Toronto saw the 12 month rate of growth increase in June, when compared to the month before. TREB prices are now down 10.22% from the all-time high. The City of Toronto is doing slightly better, with the benchmark down 7.59% from the peak reached in 2017. One thing worth noting is the gap between prices and peak are getting smaller in TREB. However, in the City of Toronto, that gap grew compared to May.

Toronto Detached Benchmark Percent Change

The 12 month percent change of a typical detached home across the Toronto Real Estate Board.

Source: TREB, Better Dwelling.

The median detached sale price made an even smaller movement, but at least it was higher. TREB reported a median detached sale price of $866,250 in June, up 1.07% from last year. The City of Toronto median sale price hit $1,049,000, up 1.35% from last year. More than half of TREB homes sold 8.06% below the benchmark. In the City of Toronto, more than half of detached homes sold 7.59% below the benchmark.

Toronto Detached Average Sale Price

The average sale price of a detached house in the Toronto Real Estate Board.

Source: TREB, Better Dwelling.

The average sale price of a detached home fell across Greater Toronto. TREB reported an average sale price of $1,018,987 in June, down 1.41% from last year. The City of Toronto average sale price fell to $1,332,639, down 1.60% from last year. Average prices are not adjusted for size, so they’re best used for a read on dollar flow.

Toronto Detached Average Sale Price Change

The 12 month percent change of average sale price across across TREB.

Source: TREB, Better Dwelling.

Detached Real Estate Sales Jump Double Digits

Compared to last year, Greater Toronto detached real estate sales made a big climb. TREB reported 4,225 sales in June, up 17.72% from last year. The City of Toronto represented 995 of those sales, up 12.42% from last year. TREB’s climb is massive, but still falls 13.5% below the 5 year median number of sales for June. Also worth doubling back for a mention is detached sales in the 905 are growing at a much faster rate than the City.

Toronto Detached June Sales

The total number of Greater Toronto detached sales made in the month of April.

Source: TREB, Better Dwelling.

Detached Real Estate Listings Fall In The 905, Jump In The City

The number of new listings for detached real estate made a slight bump. TREB reported 8,675 new listings in June, up 3.06% from last year. The City of Toronto represented 1,957 of those listings, up 9.14% from last year. In case you missed it, the City of Toronto’s growth rate for new listings was almost 3x that of the 905.

Toronto Detached Sales Vs. New Listings

The total number of detached sales, compared to the number of new detached listings per month.

Source: TREB, Better Dwelling.

The number of total listings for detached real estate fell, except in the City – where it jumped. TREB reported 12,301 detached active listings June, down 1.50% from last year. The City of Toronto represented 2,454 of the listings, up 8.58% from the same month last year. Active listings for June are 31.51% higher than the median number over the past 5 years. There’s more detached homes for sale than we’re used to seeing over the past half a decade. However, it more so highlights how little inventory there’s been in recent years.

Toronto Active Detached Listings

The total number of detached listings available.

Source: TREB, Better Dwelling.

The year-over-year numbers looks good – prices are higher, sales increased, and inventory fell. Zooming out just a bit, tells us these numbers aren’t all that big of a positive. The typical home is seeing prices rise slower than a loaf of bread. Sales are higher, but still historically low for the past half decade. Ditto with inventory.

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  • Reply
    Jason Chau 5 years ago

    Interesting, I’ve been seeing detached homes downtown lingering a lot longer than they used to. You can actually get a detached for under a million, which I thought was never going to happen in Toronto again.

    • Reply
      David I 5 years ago

      Just checked Over 1,000 detached homes for under a million. Not sure what’s going to happen to prices for the market, but I’m glad I sold my condo and moved into a detached.

      Probably going to take a minor hit over the next few years, but I’ll ride it out. If detached prices take another hit though, I’m going to be glad I wasn’t in a condo still.

  • Reply
    Michael Brown 5 years ago

    Things are getting closer to normal. TREB (and the 905) looks like it’s outpacing price growth in the city. Hasn’t been that way since 2017.

  • Reply
    GTA Landlord 5 years ago

    Even at a million with 20% down, buyers are looking at paying $4k/month to carry their home? They would need a household income of $160k/year post-taxes, or $260,000 gross, to make that number a “sound” financial decision, taking up 30% of their income.

    Those are some wild numbers to leverage up on. Just because a bank will approve you, doesn’t always mean you should take it.

    • Reply
      rustinpeace 5 years ago

      combined I am making around 180/yr. My budget for a house is 700k MAX. Once you factor in a second car, baby and that fixer upper money becomes very tight. Toronto is also becoming ridiculously expensive to live in. Also I am in debt banking and we have started recession planning. The conversations are focused on three things trade war, currency devaluations and debt leverage. First round of cuts are probably going to be in November if things get worse. I am also seeing, albeit slowly, a rise in delinquencies and an increase in business loans. The govt will try to prop up housing as much as it can. RE is the biggest contributor to our GDP. Once it falls the deck falls with it.

  • Reply
    Cat 5 years ago

    Not sure what happened to better dwelling, just regurgitating stats,with no insight or opinion (things are getting closer to normal)when did the bubble price become normal for BD, I thought they were an independent blog guess not.I can get all this from Treb.I came here for something different ,just another main stream real estate blog now.guess they got to you.we ‘ll give you this much to advertise but you better cool talks.

    • Reply
      Ethan Wu 5 years ago

      That’s very Canadian to complain about free content. Why don’t you mosey to another site for insights then or drop a few thousand a month for the institutional reports?

      • Reply
        Mortgage Guy 5 years ago

        People have short memories.

        Before Better Dwelling, there was little to no discussion about actual real estate statistics, and board reports were mostly just opinion that said “it’s an excellent time to buy.” The news would also constantly just reiterate there was no inventory, prices are going up forever.

        Better Dwelling exposed false data, cancelled inventory scams, paid line standers at condo sales, massive gaps in board data, and NOW every MSM wants to talk about it. Of course, entitled brats get upset when the data doesn’t show what they want it to show.

    • Reply
      Bluetheimpala 5 years ago

      I think you’ll find BD doesn’t provide ‘insights’ unless the data is not clear and they definitely don’t provide buy or sell side analysis.

      Where the data is opaque or too technical for us plebes they break down the pieces to help us understand the data but again, I don’t know if there have been many ‘insights’. BD won’t remind you water is wet but will explain how ice is another form of water, if that makes sense, and it is us to infer that once it melts, we will get wet. Whether the temperature is going up or down (i.e. will it melt) and when/how it will melt, that’s for us to discuss.

      As others have posted, the value is aggregating multiple data sources and shining light on data that only analysts track. Also, as others have noted, insights are more analysis and you don’t get that on a free blog generally. I’m happy with what I’m getting. Tock. BD4L.

  • Reply
    Sam 5 years ago

    Hey Kaitlin, it seems like your sales bar chart is showing May numbers instead of June.

  • Reply
    CJRay 5 years ago

    Interesting information,if you believe all stats from TREB are on the up and up. I believe there’s a war room at TREB where a bunch of number crunchers try to warp information and wordsmith the facts. What body is auditing this information anyway?

    • Reply
      Sam Liu 5 years ago

      Not really. I think people see what they want to in these stats. Y/Y gains don’t mean a whole lot if you’re losing every month. It just means the seasonal decline wasn’t as big as the same one last year. Prices usually peak for the year in May, then slowly slide into December.

      No body audits the sales numbers, because it’s technically not all of the sales in Toronto – it’s just the MLS. I doubt they’re gaming the numbers though. My only question would be in regards to the benchmark, since they use qualitative measures similar to appraisals, and “scrub” extremes.

  • Reply
    Cat 5 years ago

    Short memory, entitled brat.I don’t think so.been reading this blog since it started,it’s changed.Remember the article about wages ,it was independent thinking outside the box that’s what I’m talking about.bull or bear I don’t care just found it interesting. Now the only interesting part is the forum but how long can that .love these tough guys that text stuff but really have no balls,probably sporting a beard.

  • Reply
    Grim Reaper 5 years ago

    I wouldn’t want to buy and live in a Downtown or Midtown Toronto detached shack listed for $1Million or less. They are usually very small in undesirable places and/or need substantial renovation which makes them cost much more, well over the under $1Million asking price.

  • Reply
    FOMO 5 years ago

    Well at least new construction Inventory of SF homes has fallen dramatically, since the peak in Spring 2017

    SF Homes under Construction (CMHC Data for June)
    2016 9,238
    2017 10,611
    2018 8,187
    2019 4,776

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