Toronto

Toronto Detached Real Estate Is Down Over $100k From Peak

If you liked Toronto’s detached real estate market at peak prices last year, you’ll love it here. Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) numbers show July had a surge of detached sales. Unfortunately the increase has limited meaning, since July 2017 was one of the worst years on record. Setting the bar low was easy to clear, but didn’t stop the rest of the indicators from deteriorating. The Toronto detached market generally saw higher inventory, and falling prices.

Toronto Detached Prices Drop Over 2%

The price of a typical detached home continued to get cheaper across Toronto. TREB regions had a benchmark of $923,800 in July, down 4.15% from last year. The City of Toronto saw the detached benchmark fall to $1,112,800 in July, down 2.91% from last year. Prices are down close to 10% from the peak hit last year.

Toronto Detached Benchmark Price

The price of a typical detached home across the Toronto Real Estate Board, in Canadian dollars.

Source: TREB, Better Dwelling.

Detached prices are lower than the month before, but the size of the losses improved. TREB’s detached benchmark fell $7,800 from the month before. The City of Toronto’s detached benchmark fell $6,600 from the month before. Both markets showed a smaller annual declines, but are still in negative range.

Toronto Detached Benchmark Percent Change

The 12 month percent change of a typical detached home across the Toronto Real Estate Board.

Source: TREB, Better Dwelling.

Median Sale Price Rises In The 905, Falls In The 416

The median sales price for detached homes had a mixed movement. TREB reported a median sale price of $845,000 in July, up 1.5% from last year. The City’s median sale price fell to $950,000 in July, down 2.96% from last year. Median sale prices are not adjusted for quality or size, but are faster to respond than the benchmark. The indicator is also favored by international buyers.

Toronto Detached Average Sale Price

The average sale price of a detached house in the Toronto Real Estate Board.

Source: TREB, Better Dwelling.

The Average Detached Sale Price Increased Slightly

The average sale price of a detached home moved higher, as more expensive units moved. TREB reported an average detached sale price of $1,004,647 in July, up 0.5% from last year. The City of Toronto had an average detached sale price of $1,350,700 in July, up 3.6% from last year. As always, average prices aren’t useful for determining how much you’ll pay for a home. They are better used to help get a better picture of upgrade flow.

Toronto Detached Average Sale Price Change

The 12 month percent change of average sale price across across TREB.

Source: TREB, Better Dwelling.

Toronto Detached Sales Had A Big Jump, But There’s A Catch…

Toronto detached sales had a massive jump from last year, but that doesn’t mean what some people will think it does. Detached sales across TREB rose to 3,062 in July, an increase of 26.8% from last year. The City of Toronto represented 672 of those sales, an increase of 22% from last year. That seems like massive growth, but last year was a strange July to compare it to. July 2017 was one of the worst Julys in recent history, so it was a low bar to cross.

Toronto Detached Sales Vs. New Listings

The total number of detached sales, compared to the number of new detached listings per month.

Source: TREB, Better Dwelling.

Detached Inventory In Toronto Is Up Over 4%

The number of new detached listings moved higher. TREB reported 7,088 new detached listings in July, up 1.41% from last year. The City of Toronto represented 1,365 of those sales, up 6.47% from last year. The increase of new listings helped to push total inventory higher.

The total number of detached homes for sale made a pretty big climb. TREB saw 11,662 active detached listings in July, up a massive 11% from last year. The City of Toronto represented 2,049 active detached listings, up 4.38% from last year. Detached inventory is nearly three times as much as we saw in July 2015. Not a huge surprise the urge to bid up prices has subsided.

Toronto Active Detached Listings

The total number of detached listings available.

Source: TREB, Better Dwelling.

Generally speaking, the market saw an increase in inventory and lower prices. The increase in sales is encouraging, but doesn’t mean a whole lot. Last year’s July sales were some of the worst in years, artificially compressed by the uncertainty of policy changes. Broad market observers are going to want to wait until the fall to make an informed opinion on the sales trend.

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20 Comments

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  • Reply
    Mica 4 months ago

    Ouch, that’s gotta hurt.

    TREB benchmark looks like a $115,700 loss.
    Toronto’s benchmark looks like it’s at a $125,700 loss.

    But your agent thinks everything is fine, whats a few years of work lost?

    • Reply
      Hoj 4 months ago

      On the upside, those that waited can get a similar home for a massive discount from last year’s prices. My only worry is that trend looks like it’s going lower, not higher into winter.

    • Reply
      SUMSKILLZ 4 months ago

      Assuming you have a mortgage, isn’t the loss double your figures?…assuming you stay in the home and pay it off in 25 years.

      • Reply
        Grizzly Gus 4 months ago

        Only if you allow for what you pay in interest………………..but shhhhhhhhhhhhhh, the industry doesnt want you to tell people that.

  • Reply
    T 4 months ago

    Buy and hold real estate. You haven’t lost anything unless you’ve sold. For the majority of people, they’ll ride out any losses right until they’re ready to upgrade 10 years down the road.

    • Reply
      Rational Investor 4 months ago

      Tell that to people that will have to renew at much higher rates when their lender tells them the LTV on their home fell below 20%.

    • Reply
      Mark 4 months ago

      So inventory is increasing at a steady pace because people are holding?

      • Reply
        6ix 4 months ago

        On a lighter note.
        True . people are holding their buying plans

        • Reply
          Trader Jim 4 months ago

          A couple of Realtor buddies have been saying clients have pulled their homes, and they’re going to wait for next year in order to sell. Wonder how many people are going to get caught trying to time their selling behavior.

          • Grizzly Gus 4 months ago

            Good old double speak.

            RE agents to buyers – “You cannot time the market!” “Buy and hold for the long term and you will always come out a winner”

            RE agents to media/ sellers – “Slow sales are due to a lack of quality listings. Sellers have been holding out to relist in a stronger fall market”

          • John 4 months ago

            You’re so right GG, but I dont hate it any less.

            I especially hate the “Buy and hold for the long term and you will always come out a winner”

            It’s such BS. Much misleading. Sure your asset value will inflate over time, and after 25 years you are guaranteed to sell the asset for a higher dollar figure assuming quality remains the same. But after factoring in all expenses paid including inflation, it simply isn’t sure fire to maintain profit. But by God dont say that in an arm chair discussion.

            Too bad the greasy salesman will be either retired or dead before us millenials figure it out.

      • Reply
        SUMSKILLZ 4 months ago

        Yes, both buyers and sells feel sticker shock. Buyers see silly asking prices, sellers are insulted by what they see as low offers.

        • Reply
          Waiting patiently 4 months ago

          Agree Sumskillz, I’ve been looking in Etobicoke for a while and I see some houses sit for months at very high asking prices. Eventually the listing gets pulled without sale (perhaps the seller was too offended to accept an offer below ask, if they received any?) or re-lists at 1 – 200k lower (I guess when the seller is more motivated or finally accepted that 2017 peak prices are not coming back so soon).

          • PrayForMojo 4 months ago

            Waiting Patiently, which areas of Etobicoke are you looking at?

          • Resident 4 months ago

            Same in the York region. Properties are sitting around for months with no buyers with unrealistic sale prices all over the place for the same sq. ft within 1-2 km. Some gets a buyer (I guess an idiotic buyer and his/her overnight RE agent) but the offer is terminated because the non approval of the mortgage. An interesting period.

          • Waiting Patiently 4 months ago

            PrayForMojo, I’m looking in the north part of W08 – we currently own in this area and are planning to upsize. To be clear I haven’t listed yet as it seems such a losing proposition in an inflated market; I may get more than I should for my current house, but would then have to pay proportionately (give or take) even more for the next house let alone all the percentage fees, taxes and mortgage interest.

  • Reply
    Bluetheimpala 4 months ago

    Scotia is forecasting two rate increases; sept and dec plus two more in q1 2019. inflation is increasing and our economy is going gangbusters. So many factors outside of human exuberance; poloz has said he doesn’t care about housing. Any seller who has a wait and see attitude will wait and see their equity slip away. I think there could be a bit of a panic in Q4 or Q1 once people realize doc and Einstein aren’t coming to being back 2016. Tick tick. BD4L.

  • Reply
    Joshua 4 months ago

    How much of an affect does this have on the rest of Ontario?
    I know when Toronto is hot the market picks up in other locations. What about when prices are falling?
    https://www.airrealty.ca/dashboard/

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