Greater Toronto Is Seeing New Mortgages Drop Wicked Fast

If the adage that real estate prices follow credit growth is true, Toronto may be in for a rough ride. Using Bank of Canada (BoC) data to estimate dollar volumes, we see less mortgages are being issued in Greater Toronto. The decline is exclusive to traditional lenders, as more buyers turn to subprime loans.

The Dollar Value of Mortgages Dropped Over 25%

The total dollar value of mortgage originations in Greater Toronto is plummeting, as sales decline. Just over $26.55 billion in mortgages were issued in the first quarter of 2018, a decline of 0.47% from the previous quarter. The first quarter of 2018 is also down a massive 25.3% compared to the same quarter last year. The dollar volume decline is roughly in-line with the drop in sales.

Greater Toronto New Mortgage Dollar Volume

The total dollar value of new mortgages per quarter in the Greater Toronto Area.

Source: Bank of Canada, Better Dwelling Calculations.

Traditional Lenders See Originations Drop Over 27%

The decline of originations were concentrated at banks, and other traditional lenders. This segment of the market saw $24.46 billion in originations in Q1 2018, a 0.8% decline from the quarter before. The first quarter of 2018 finished 27.01% lower than the same quarter last year. If you’re a math whiz, you’ve already noticed that decline was larger than the total decline. That’s because traditional lenders are losing market share to private lenders.

Greater Toronto New Mortgages At Traditional Lenders

The dollar volume of new mortgages at traditional lenders, such as banks and credit unions.

Source: Bank of Canada, Better Dwelling Calculations.

Traditional Lenders Are Losing Market Share To Private Lenders

Traditional lenders hold the vast majority of originations, but their position is slipping. Traditional lenders issued 92.13% of mortgage dollar volumes in Q1 2018, compared to 92.43% in the previous quarter. The slight loss brings the total market share down by nearly 2 points since last year. The market share lost, is being picked up by private lenders with steep mortgage rates.

Greater Toronto New Mortgage Market Share At Traditional Mortgage Lenders

The percent of new mortgages issued at traditional mortgage lenders .

Source: Bank of Canada, Better Dwelling Calculations.

The industry is attributing the decline in market share to B-20 Guidelines. The Guideline forces OSFI regulated banks to “stress test” buyers starting in 2018, ensuring borrowers can pay higher rates. Private lenders are not OSFI regulated, and therefore don’t have to stress test buyers. Naturally, the industry is assuming buyers are trying to dodge stress tests.

It’s a cute narrative, but it doesn’t really make sense. Traditional lenders have been losing market share since before B-20 Guidelines were mandatory. More likely, less sophisticated money that couldn’t qualify at traditional lenders, began to pour into the market.

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  • Reply
    Bluetheimpala 9 months ago

    OREA announcing some BS next week in conjunction with Dougie. I wonder if they will attempt to prolong the bloodshed? Punt it a few quarters then blame everything on a recession? Interesting but ultimately, as this post highlights, there is little anyone can do and ‘we be fucked’. What is wet. My name is blue. Winter is coming. How ready are you? BD4L.

    • Reply
      Grizzly Gus 9 months ago

      I figured his TTC extension to Markham and Durham announcement was a bone to the industry. (Better buy in those areas right away!)

      I wouldn’t be surprised to see them come out with some sort of first time buyer assistance program like BC had for a while. Free money for 5 years to help you get your down deposit together kind of crap. That could keep condomania going for a bit longer. Until condo market falls there is a floor on the market.

      • Reply
        Ahmed 9 months ago

        Credit’s cycled, now there’s a decline in employment on the horizon, which is expected without a major NAFTA issue. Hard to prop up prices as unemployment starts rising.

        If they put together a downpayment program, it would be similar to the BC escape plan. The one that allowed investors to unload to first-time bagholders. I mean, buyers. 😬😂

        • Reply
          Grizzly Gus 9 months ago

          LOL. First – time bagholders. Everyone’s got to learn the hard way.

          • @xelan_gta 9 months ago

            It is actually a question actually if we have more investors or first-time buyers with the empty bag at the end.
            It is harder to unload your investment property with a tenant in it in declining market or during recession.
            First-time buyers are more flexible here and in many cases will be less leveraged after correction.

            The only true winners will be baby boomers who can finally cash out their mortgage free properties at a big gain.
            We have about 40% mortgage-free properties in GTA and even if some of those decide to cash out it will screw both first time buyers and investors big time.

  • Reply
    Nav 9 months ago

    Do Credit Unions fall under private lenders for these calculations? My initial understanding of B20 was that it didn’t affect them.

    • Reply
      Trader Jim 9 months ago

      “Traditional lenders” is usually anyone that is subject to federal underwriting rules, so I’m assuming this includes both credit unions and banks. Credit unions have a relatively small presence in Ontario, but they would be included in that number is my understanding.

      B-20 only applies to federally regulated financial institutions, it’s a little different. So big banks that operate across provinces. Provincially regulated mortgages, like those at credit unions, dont have B-20 apply.

      • Reply
        Arif 9 months ago

        Respectfully; credit unions do not fall under the same regulation as federally regulated institutions. However, some credit unions have chosen to adopt the same practices as part of their due diligence. Others have chosen to take opportunity to grow market share. The same goes for many of the alternative / “B” lenders.

  • Reply
    @xelan_gta 9 months ago

    Great article.
    Those are your fundamentals right here.
    Less money is flowing into RE now. Sellers can deny it temporary and refuse to reduce prices but as a result inventory will grow and it will bring back prices sooner or later.
    Even based on those graphs prices should slide to 2015 levels in order to be supported by the current demand and don’t cause increase in debt levels. BoC is very serious about household debt levels now so I don’t expect those to rise further.

    Real demand is even lower because those private lender mortgages are extremely risky and will backfire during the next recession for sure.

    There is no magic there, money must come to RE from somewhere, either borrowing or savings or foreign demand. Borrowing component is obviously slowing down along with foreign buying as well.

  • Reply
    Mark 9 months ago

    With Doug likely to scrap the foreign buyers tax most of this data will be old very quickly. Foreign buyers trade real estate like stocks and don’t mind holding losses long term, and they artificially inflate sales volumes in the market, along with that drives FOMO from actual residents. Hopefully he’s just going to scrap the municipal land transfer tax allowance, because a repeal of the foreign buyers tax will be brutal in the long term.

    • Reply
      Xiao 9 months ago

      International investment wants stability, not a paper gain in a currency that’s actively losing value. Removing the foreign buyer ban does not change the currency risk, which I would advise anyone to take right now. The Hugh domestic debt levels mean your government is likely to engage in debt deflation, eroding the value against foreign currency.

      Condo assignments aren’t subject to tax, they’re being sold at a bulk discount to FOs with a 20% discount, and they still can’t sell them. The only people that will be fooled by removing the foreign buyer ban are locals.

      • Reply
        Xiao 9 months ago

        * Would NOT advise anyone to take the currency risk.

      • Reply
        Foxxy 9 months ago

        How in the hell do you square FBT as an “act of terror” (are you seriously calling our elected government terrorists?!) against the domestic population?

        If anything psychologically it would inspire confidence in the native population as they would feel their interests are being protected.

        • Reply
          @xelan_gta 9 months ago

          I knew bears have conspiracy theories, but I never heard one from a bull.
          You made my day, LL 🙂

    • Reply
      Bluetheimpala 9 months ago

      Seems contradictory. I don’t know many traders/investors who take a ‘long loss’ position; what we saw in the run up was chasing yield and overleveraging. Sure some of the non-resident buyers, the cohort with the most wealth, need to get their money out but that ship has sailed and Xi is on it like a pit bull on a tire. Canada is not a place to store money. Maybe eventually but not now; you move it here to wash it and then off to the US, lol! Also I would caution the assumption that old Dougie will/can get rid of the foreign buyers tax; look at his base. Foreign buyers drive up the price of real estate, not keep it lower. I’ve seen zero indication the PC party would do this and they’ve already scrapped some revenue…it will not end well for Mr.Ford if he just runs a massive deficit while cutting everywhere, into a recession and then hope Rob comes down from heaven, pipe in hand, to save the day…not going to happen. Or it could. Tick tock. BD4L.

      • Reply
        SCE 9 months ago

        Owning property in China is based on leasehold system, NOT freehold. There is a lot of concern on how leaseholds will be renewed. Which means there is doubt on how wealth will be preserved now and in the future. Canada has a lot of freeholds available so it’s a great source to store wealth if you ask me. There is a lot of wealth on China so they can help support prices. There are loopholes to get money out of the country as well. Dougie removing the foreign tax will just help prices. Tick Tock, get your house now before you’re priced out forever!

        • Reply
          Oleg 9 months ago

          I think the real estate industry and Boomers don’t understand two things – skilled labour and currency.

          Skilled Labour
          I live in Toronto because I like it, not because it’s offering me the most value for my labour. The US pays a 30-40% premium for my skill set, and they have an army of visas waiting for those skills. If the living conditions here deteriorate to the point where I’m spending all of my money on rent or a mortgage, I’ll just head South.

          So will all of the other white collared jobs. Companies like Amazon are here to use cheaper labour that isn’t willing to move to the US, yet. If the cost of living reaches the same level as SF or NYC (which it’s pretty close), but I’m making less money – I’ll just move to one of those hubs.

          Currency is the single most important issue. Trudeau is sabotaging NAFTA because he wants to blame Trump for the lack of investment, but the major issue is no one wants to do business in Canadian dollars. The high levels of household and government debt make it very unattractive, because the Bank of Canada will have to devalue that asset.

          Example, if a company doing their books in USD (most large ones do), transferred US$100 million to Canadian dollars in the beginning of the year, they would have lost 10% on their accounting records already. Without doing anything, they would have lost 10%. Try to justify that to investors? You couldn’t, it was a bad move. Now expand that to all international investment, which yes, foreign buyers also understand.

          • TravellingTechie 9 months ago

            A skilled labor earning around 5000 per month, has to pay 2500 on housing & Auto, 2000 for other expenses +Tax+inflation

            Simply, There is no incentive to stay in a country that is cold for more than 6 months.

        • Reply
          Bluetheimpala 9 months ago

          So the wealth elite don’t ‘OWN’ anything but just ‘LEASE’? So everyone is renting…maybe just the plebes. The military families I’ve come in contact with OWN their assets (well everything is temporary in Xi’s china…), perhaps you’re not exposed to this type of consumer? You could be more second or third tier, there are different rules for different castes but you should know that. Why would you ‘store wealth’ in an illiquid asset that is either volatile or flat in terms of returns? Putting your money in an ETF or just the S&P500 would be a better store of wealth. Again, makes no sense. And then your idea that having foreign money pile in is good for housing? So further prop up a bubble? Like the disaster in Vancouver? Not even going to unpack that one…go home, you’re drunk…BD4L.

        • Reply
          Justin Thyme 9 months ago


          China is based on a leasehold system?


          Better tell the Chinese homeowner that. They thought that went out with Mao.

  • Reply
    Grizzly Gus 9 months ago

    Interesting read on lending in Australia and how their system works.

    • Reply
      @xelan_gta 9 months ago

      Nice article and concept is good but I would take it with a grain of salt.
      “Statistically, you can explain 81% of the change in house price multiples over the past 20 years by changes in the average cost of borrowing. They are almost the only game in town. ”
      While it is true in the long term it has no use for bubbles.
      In 2016 we had 0% change in interest rates and very small growth in incomes but prices increased in GTA big time.

      Speculation, FOMO and other psychological factors which form bubbles are totally separate from fundamentals.

  • Reply
    Alistair McLaughlin 9 months ago

    Someday, when I become a rich landlord, I’m going to spend my days making multiple bullish arguments on bearish blogs. Oh wait, no successful person in history has ever done that. Only over-extended broke losers with cash-flow negative “investment properties” have the time and motivation to spend all day online talking their book. Successful people NEVER have to expend energy defending their investment choices. They’re too busy with other things. Never mind.

    • Reply
      Justin Thyme 9 months ago

      ‘Rich’ and ‘landlord’ are somewhat mutually exclusive.

      Landlords do not get rich, developers get rich.

      That’s why all the developers sell to landlords. No money in it.

      • Reply
        Alistair McLaughlin 9 months ago

        When it comes to guys like LL, they are absolutely mutually exclusive.

  • Reply
    Joe 9 months ago

    Notice the report says GTA not Toronto? The prices in E01/E02/E03/W01/W02 are still holding up so well! Look at recent sales in these regions and their sold prices are shocking…can’t speak for other regions but at least in these regions where I’m looking, it’s still very strong.

    True, sales volume isn’t as much and inventory is at record high but prices are not dropping!

    • Reply
      Bluetheimpala 9 months ago

      Prices in Toronto are getting worse each week Joe. Now there are a number of listings below $1M even in the $800K range…go back 4-5 months and there was no SFH in Toronto property under $1M. As money contract around the center urban markets that have higher demand are insulated. What is worrying is I didn’t believe Toronto would show cracks until the end of Q3. The fact that I can buy a renovated house in the west end, even with multiples, for under $1.2 should be very alarming…there were people spending $1.5-1.8 last spring. I find your comment ‘holding up well’ to suggest you understand the industry and understand what is happening. BD4L.

      • Reply
        Joe 9 months ago


        Thanks for the response. Yeah, for sure there are many areas that are well below last year. But I look at the housing market on a daily basis as I have an interest in it as most people here do! Is there a reason why you are expecting to see cracks by Q3? I was expecting the market to tank/not do well since May 2017 and continue to do bad in 2018.

        However, if you look at E03 (East York) for example, the last two weeks of sales have shown 2 storey detached houses going for well over a million. Would you mind sharing where in the west end you see renovated houses 1.2m and below? I tend to look closer to the subway line so west end to me is bloor street west village (which was an area where I like! :))

  • Reply
    Justin Thyme 9 months ago

    It is also consistent with falling real estate prices, as well. As the price of homes drops, so must the total of the sales, unless the volume goes up to compensate. Seems this is only half of the picture.

  • Reply
    Joe 9 months ago

    Oh, just want to put it out there. I am a relatively young home owner with only one house (who is super leveraged among my peers…ikr, freaking expensive real estate prices!) and I wish the housing market is doing well but I feel that I need a reality check sometimes since my thinking may be biased so bears in this blog definitely help! 🙂 i.e. i want to be a bullish but want to be logical too!

    • Reply
      @xelan_gta 9 months ago

      Joe, since you are new homeowner I would recommend studying this topic extra hard because you are in the riskiest category. At all cost you should avoid being underwater because if any life events happen which will force you to sell your house you won’t be able to do it and will have to declare bankruptcy.
      This blog is posting very good articles and explaining RE market risks. We have a lot of those risks right now that’s why education here is super critical.

      Are you financially ready to renew your mortgage at 5% and all other credit products to be 2% more expensive? That’s the bare minimum how you should be prepared. Rates may not necessary reach that level but do you want to put your life at risk here?

      If you are OK with 5% mortgage rate then you should ask yourself what’s the maximum price drop you can tolerate psychologically? This will help you to better understand if you need to consider selling your house or not.

      Third question you need to ask yourself if it’s your “dream house” or you are planning to upgrade within the next few years. And this answer can make decision much easier for you.
      If you plan to upgrade your property why don’t do it in 2 steps instead: Sell now, rent for a while and buy later?
      By doing so you will skip this extra risky period which we will have for the next 2-3 years.
      Worst case prices will go up at a rate of inflation and your wage increase should cover that. That’s the best case scenario in every bullish article, so it’s not expected for prices to go above inflation level within the next couple of years. So you shouldn’t be dropped out of the market.

      Best case is that bulls are wrong, RE will tank and Canada enters recession. In this case you will be able to get your next property cheaper, but as a downside you’ll have to rent for 2-7 years. (RE market crashes usually last 5-10 years until prices reach the bottom). You may be affected by the recession which will be bad, but again it’s much safer to be affected as a renter, then as an owner with huge mortgage.

      This is not an advice. Do your research, calculate all the risk and rewards in each scenario and it will be easier for you to make right decision.

      However if you can easily handle 5% mortgage, sustain 50% drop in house value and you are happy with your house and location – I would not even bother reading this blog and just enjoy my life.

      • Reply
        Joe 9 months ago

        Wow Xelan…thanks for the detailed post! Appreciate all the points you made and will seriously consider it. I did read some of the comments you posted on other articles and always appreciate the insights!

        I definitely am in the riskiest category…graduated in June 2013 and bought an old house in Mar 2014 (also by leveraging as much as I could, i.e. 20% down payment and 80% mortgage). Renovated my house in 2016 thinking I would be living there but real estate was so hot so I sold in July 2016 and got some decent profits but then my investor instincts kicked in and I reinvested in another old house (both house same closing date so I just moved over) but in a better location thinking I can save up and renovate/rebuild later. This is where I am now.

        In terms of mortgage, I locked in the 5 year fixed in Oct 2016 at 2.19% so 3 years left on this mortgage. Thinking of the renewal time scares the hell out of me but I am taking one step at a time. Only saving grace is that I have 35% equity and 65% mortgage in this because I reinvested the profits made from the previous house though this mortgage is even bigger than the last one so I am using a significant portion of my income to pay for it!

        I do love the location of my current house and would like to stay but the house is old and there are a lot of things that will eventually need replacing which I am putting off till I can fund a complete renovation. I definitely can’t handle 5% mortgage easily and 50% drop in house value will probably kill me…lol! Currently renting out the basement for extra income so that’s helping a bit. (LL, I might have to live in my basement when the 5% mortgage comes! >.<)

        So the real big question now is how much will real estate fall in Toronto and when will it fall?!? Is it worth the transaction cost (5% agent fee, land transfer tax, moving cost, etc) plus if renting for 2-7 years would mean lost equity as well (Conservatively, I tend to think of 1/3 of the rent can be actually used as principal mortgage payments and the other 2/3 is interest).

        I am in one of the 5 regions I listed in my previous comments so may be delusional that prices are still holding up? haha, not cherry picking like what Agent X mentioned…I really was looking to buy in those regions when looking for a house 2 years ago so my focus has been always there!

        • Reply
          Justin Thyme 9 months ago

          @Joe, let’s look at some calculations

          You say your equity is 35/65.

          For the sake of argument, assume your house is worth $100,000. So you own $35,000 of it.

          Now, suppose the market drops, and your house falls inn value by 30%. It is now worth $70,000. But you owe %65,000. So you still have equity, you must have a much higher ratio mortgage than you had intended. Your house still has value to you.

          If the market drops by 40%, your house is worth $60,000, and you have a $65,000 mortgage. You are paying a premium of $5,000 to live in the house.

          Interest on $65,000 at 2.19% is $1,423 over 3 years is $4269
          Interest on $6 5,000 at 5% is $3,250, over 3 years is $9,750

          If you have $5,000 equity in your house, your interest payments over 3 years have almost wiped that out in a net value calculation at 2.19%, and put you in the hole by almost the amount of what you thought was your ‘equity’ at 5%.

          If you are $5,000 in the negative on the house, you are net negative by 23% of the new value of the house.

          When do you cut your losses?

          Most people, when they calculate how much they have MADE on their house, forget to add the interest payments, and only do the calculation based on the original price.

          To break even on a house, your house has to increase in value AT LEAST by the amount of interest you are paying on the mortgage.

          Yes, I know, I am completely ignoring any rental payments that you would have to pay if you sold. So live in your parents’ basement.

          • Joe 9 months ago

            @Justin, thanks for the analogy!

            For sure if the real estate does tanks 30-40%, I am better off selling and renting but from what I am seeing so far, it’s about 0% growth YoY (at least in my region). I think the break-even point for me is around 10-20% fall in value. If prices fall more than 20%, yes, I should definitely sell and rent.

            However, with the influx of immigrants and jobless rates at all time low, I feel that good areas in Toronto will hold steady despite losses around the GTA.

            I understand what you mean by my house have to increase in value at least by the interest I am paying. For argument’s sake, say the Interest I am paying on my mortgage + property taxes/utilities/etc is equal to the rental payments I have to make if I sell the house (Living in my parents’ basement is not an option!). Won’t I be better off staying put? In addition, I am renting out my basement so that’s extra income I will lose if I sell my house!

            Let’s do some numbers:

            Say my house current is worth 1M. 650k in mortgage and at 2.19%, it’s around $14235 in interest a year and property taxes plus utilities are around 8k a year so it is $22,235. But I have 1k rental income from the basement so it becomes $10,235 a year which really can’t rent any decent place.

            At 5% mortgage rate, I have $32,500 in interest, 8k property taxes and utilities less 12k rental income = $28,500 = $2375 which can decently rent a place. (I am married so need a little more space!)

            Of course, if I were to sell now, I do unlock the equity I have in my house less any transaction cost (mainly the 5% agent commission = $50k) = $300,000. Invest that at 4% = 12k a year. Therefore, my rental income from my basement is actually earning about 4% for my equity.

            Conclusion, at 5% mortgage rate, it seems to make sense to sell the house. If prices were to fall 20% in the next two years, then yes, I should sell the house. So will real estate fall 20% in my area??

          • Justin Thyme 9 months ago


            It’s good that you are running some numbers on your own for illustration purposes. That way,you are making a decision on real numbers and not emotion, or’what other people think’, or worse ‘opinion’.

            You are comparing the ‘monthly living costs’ that you would reasonably incur anyway, between renting and buying. One thing – if you rent, your landlord is responsible for maintenance. However, if you rent, you can not remodel to your tastes. Upgrades go into the landlords’ pocket, not yours.

            One other thing – your mortgage payment includes an amount that is going to build up equity. If the price of your property is going down, you are throwing this money into the ether. This is the conundrum for buyers whose mortgage payments are no primarily going towards equity – are they losing these payments because their net equity in their home is actually decreasing, even though they are making payments to build it up?

            But the same is happening with new car loans spread over eight years. In the final years, your car may be worth less than the still-existing loan, yet you are still paying off the loan and supposedly ‘building equity’ in the car.

            The crux is: ‘If you sold the house at market value, would you STILL be left having to pay off money on the mortgage?’ If so, you might be better off staying put, otherwise you are paying for your FORMER house and any REPLACEMENT accommodation at the same time.

            But one thing about ‘declining values’ and ‘percentage changes’ many people do not understand. The percentage down is always lower than the percentage up, to get to the same place. That is, if your house is worth $1 mil, and it increases by 20%, it is now worth $120 mil. Then, if it decreases by the same. percentage (20% of $120 mil) it is only worth $96 mil, less than you started with. So if your house has gone up 20%, and then falls by 20%, you are not even, you are in a loss position. A decrease in value of about 17% wipes out a gain of 20%.

          • Justin Thyme 9 months ago

            @ Joe

            ‘ whose mortgage payments ‘are NOW going towards equity…’

            I realize it is a typo that needs to be corrected. Completing the word with ‘NOT’ completely changes the meaning.

        • Reply
          @xelan_gta 9 months ago

          Joe, you’re very welcome, I was in your shoes so I understand you perfectly. I sold my house last year but it was a difficult time for prediction because inventory surged in April and prices tanked immediately. Now market stabilized in general so it’s easier to forecast it.

          Nobody knows when market will correct and by how much, but I know for sure that GTA market is overvalued by at least 30-50%. This is based on historical valuations over 20+ years and fundamentals.
          Can it stay like this? Yes it can, I doubt it but everything is possible.

          Other than that, keep studying this topic because you’ll have to find all answers yourself. Nobody can accurately predict what happens to the market because there are a lot of unpredictable variables beyond our control, like government regulations which can change everything.

          Subscribe to receive listings in your area and follow up for sales info so you know exactly how much your house worth at each period of time.

          • Justin Thyme 9 months ago

            There are three main options.

            Either the market falls substantially, bottoms out (probably over-shooting the ‘where it should be’ curve), and then immediately returns to normal year over year gains,.

            Or the market flattens, neither rising nor falling, until the ‘where it should be, given normal gains’ catches up to ‘where the market actually is’ curve.

            Or, a combination of the two – the market falls, but not drastically, and not to the bottom, and then flattens out for a prolonged period, but not as long as in the second case. Then, when the flattened market curve again crosses the ‘where it should be’ curve, prices will resume rising. That is what the government is hoping for – a ‘soft fall and soft landing’.

            It seems the stock market has chosen the third option – stalled, but not crashing. I suspect it will be stuck there for a year, maybe two, in a very volatile period. I have no real reason to believe the real estate market will not also follow suit. A very prolonged period of stagnant house prices, with owners neither gaining nor loosing unless interest and CPI are factored in. But this scenario demands that the interest rates and CPI remain very low, so owners do not lose net equity by throwing money against interest.

            In America, the two curves have not yet met, even after eight years, They did not really bottom out, because prices did not resume their climb immediately after, but stalled. They are just now starting to go backup,

            And that is how they got Trump. Everything stalled, all through the Obama administration, until the curves met.
            So even though Obama negotiated a relatively soft landing, and Americans did not fall as much as they could have, Americans were not happy. They wanted to gain. Perhaps it would have been better psychologically if prices DID completely bottom out. It would have been very painful, but at least immediately after, prices would have started going up. Americans would not actually BE better off than with a stagnant soft landing, but they would SEEM to be better off because things were improving.

            People are optimistic when things are getting better, even IF ‘getting better’ started from the gutter. It is the ‘getting better’ and ‘improving’ that counts, even though they are still nowhere close to being as well off as they would be in a soft but stagnant landing. People are pessimistic when things are stagnant, even though they are fairly well off relative to where they WOULD be in a hard landing.

            People are happier when they are poor, but not as poor as yesterday, than if they are rich, but just as rich as yesterday.

          • @xelan_gta 9 months ago

            Justin, I don’t see option 2 or 3 viable at all.
            2) will take like 15+ years to catch up and you need all investors to stay in the market for the whole time to keep supply/demand in balance

            3) Any slightest declines is already a problem. Oakville families demonstrated it very clearly when they were unable to move up because new property was suddenly appraised for less and old property was sold for lower price. As a result you need extra cash to close on new deal and also to compensate for lower cash received from you old house sale.

            If something like this happens to condo sector it would be not 100 families but 1000s.

            There is option 4 though – government will put all efforts to support housing market at a cost of economy and other sectors also invite foreign buyers so they can bump our RE prices even further up. This is clearly not what government is doing right now.

            In my opinion the only period where market can go sideways is during the “sellers’ denial” stage where inventories are building up. That’s what happening in both Toronto and Vancouver. But as soon as inventory becomes too high prices will slide and market sentiment changes to fear.

          • Joe 9 months ago

            Thank you very much Xelan and Justin! I will keep this points in mind and keep reading/watching the market and maybe post some questions in this comments section! This site really does help me see the negative side of things and I think as a homeowner, that’s what I need! The comments provided by people here give a ton of insights except for the occasional fighting! :p

  • Reply
    Bluetheimpala 9 months ago

    Hmmm… People definitely beat the piss out of each other because the market is healthy and stable. Live in the light. BD4L.

  • Reply
    Jimbo 9 months ago

    So it looks like volume is down to 2015 levels. What find interesting is that volume buys a lot less house/condo. So can this be adjusted to number of residential sales instead?

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