The Great Canadian migration to small towns wasn’t just a pandemic blip—it’s just getting started. Statistics Canada (StatCan) just released its 2025 urban (CMA) population estimates, and it reveals urbanization has stalled for the first time in decades. This isn’t just slower population growth—urban residents and new immigrants are increasingly avoiding Canada’s largest, most expensive cities.
Canada’s Urban Population Growth Slows After Record Frontloading
Canadian population estimate for the census metropolitan areas: Annual net change in thousands, taken on July 1st of each year.
Source: StatCan; Better Dwelling
Canada’s urban population is slowing after years of growth were front loaded last year. The CMA population estimate reached 31.17 million people in 2025, up 1.0% (+309.2k people). At less than a third of the growth rate a year prior, it’s a dramatic decline. In terms of volume, the net change was just shy of the 329.7k people added per year between 2001 to 2019 on average.
At first, this likely sounds like a conflict with recent headlines, but there’s two important reasons to keep in mind. The first is StatCan takes these estimates on July 1st of each year, but headline data in quarterly estimates flatlines in Q3 2025. The decline should be even sharper in the estimates for 2026, as they will log the actual declines in previous quarters.
The second is only Canada’s urban population. It includes those in the 41 CMAs, the largest interconnected regions in the country. It fails to capture a new trend—urbanization has hit a wall.
Canadian Urbanization Hits A Wall: Share of Residents Outside of Major Cities Rises To Multi-Decade High
Canadian annual population estimate: CMA population as a share of total population, percent.
Source: StatCan; Better Dwelling.
Canadian urbanization is stalling as more residents flee the country’s largest metro regions. The CMA population represented 74.8% of the total population in 2025, unchanged from last year. Excluding the pandemic, this is the first time since at least the early 2000s that the urban share didn’t increase.
This isn’t just due to the population slowdown, but amplified by evolving preference. Canada added 80.1k people outside of CMAs in 2025, equivalent to 25.9% of the net change in CMAs. This was the largest share in at least 25 years, excluding the pandemic.
It’s not just local residents migrating either, but traditional immigration hubs have lost appeal. Only 65.3% of those who immigrated to Quebec settled in Greater Montreal, down from 83.1% five year prior. In Greater Toronto, the share fell to 60.5% from 76.1% over the same period.
The bottom line is Canada’s population growth is slowing but that doesn’t mean it’s not changing. After frontloading years of growth, the country is still adapting to excess demand stimulated. Why people are migrating from the city into smaller, even rural, regions may be a personal choice not covered in this data. However, it’s a problem that Canada has historically seen pop up at the end of real estate bubbles, as people seek affordability and more space.
This lines up what I’m seeing with my friends. Everyone I know left Vancouver unless they were that very specific tech-real estate bro-type, who think the outflow is just political criticism.
I’m fortunate enough to have had help when buying my home, but living in the equivalent of the kids table for the Monaco crowd is about as boring as it sounds.
Agree that political criticism based on left-right takes, because neither would do anything different. However, political criticism in terms of policy is warranted as this is absolutely a policy failure.
An uncomfortable truth awaits for those who ask why Canada decided it needed 3 million immigrants over two years.
Manage properties and it’s no different in Toronto (which is exactly like it was in the 90s too). Nice professional couple is willing to pay a few grand per month, but they aren’t sticking around for more than a year.
The vacancy afterwards ends up being equivalent to trimming the cost down to a more reasonable price that can be carried for years by a good tenant, but the owners are often speculords that don’t appreciate what any long-term landlord has learned.
Interesting data, but it feels a bit premature to call this a long-term shift. A couple of slow years after insane population growth doesn’t necessarily mean urbanization is ‘over.’
People are always going to want to be in Toronto, it’s one of the most important cities in the world.
Didn’t Montreal say this in the early 80s before it crashed and burned for 40 years?
Don’t be surprised if Toronto just killed the golden goose the same way.
Kids chasing affordability makes sense for them, but the government needs to be mindful of the fact small cities aren’t prepared for this kind of growth. Throwing around Toronto pay cheques in rural Nova Scotia isn’t making us rich, its driving out kids outside of the province.
To be fair and balanced, I like this take.. kids chasing affordability, bang on.. Toronto paycheques in Nova Scotia make Nova Scotia less affordable too, bang on, so where do those kids go then?.. problem is, that capital / private equity (and the problem) is growing faster and spreading further than most young people can out pace.. to be clear, I feel it’s the real estate speculation en mass, private equity, moreso than individuals fleeing high value markets, that has been exacerbating this issue..