Maybe next year? Canadian renters are hitting pause on their plans to buy a home in the next 12 months, according to a Bank of Canada (BoC) consumer survey in Q1 2025. Following a quarter of record buying intentions, the share looking to buy this year made the sharpest quarterly decline on record. The combination of a federal election while engaged in trade wars with the world’s two largest economies, has created economic uncertainty likely to worsen before it improves.
Canadian Renters Abandon Plans To Buy A Home This Year
The share of Canadian renters who plan to purchase a home within the next 12 months.
Source: Bank of Canada.
The share of renters looking to buy a home within the next 12 months plunged last quarter. The share fell to 16.1% of renters in Q1 2025, down 9.9 points from the record high just a quarter prior. The share is about 2.3 points lower than this time last year, and represents the smallest share in two years.
Canadian Home Buying Intentions Collapsed At A Record Pace
The speed at which sentiment collapsed is taking a moment to consider. Shedding 9.9 points made it the sharpest quarterly drop since they began tracking the index. Without a sudden shift in sentiment this quarter, it’s on track to beat the sharp erosion from Q2 to Q4 2022.
Home Buying Sentiment Will Recover Fast, But It’ll Get Worse First
The collapse of buying intentions in 2022 was entirely due to a lack of affordability. It started with home prices hitting an all-time high in Q1, followed with interest rates climbing at the fastest pace in over a generation. The recovery was almost as fast, with buying intentions returning after home prices fell—improving even further as interest rates were slashed.
A quick recovery demonstrates that home buying intentions can bounce quickly if the environment is right. Lower rates and home prices are still making progress, which has made buying more attractive recently, but these valuations are still rich. The anxiety over economic uncertainty will also likely worsen before it gets better.
Home prices in Canada aren’t exactly impulse purchase prices, so there’s an interesting slant here. Those who intend to buy MAY buy, but the record spikes both times were met with almost no sales.
Intention is a prerequisite for buying, though it may not mean actual buyers.
Falling intention means not being prepared though, and that means an actual drop in buying.
born here, high paying job, have been caught in bidding wars too many times. In my mid 40’s with kids, still renting, looking to leave the country. Situation is ridiculous, quality of life has passed many by.
Bond rates are all over the place in the last few weeks. They could screw the market real quickly . The few buyers out there are walking on thin ice.
The job situation right now is precarious. No renter is going to take a risk of home ownership without being sure if they will even have a job going forward.
On the other hand, highly unlikely banks will lend either in this environment.
Renters are wise to wait it out. Just make sure there are no realtors in your friend circle to convince you otherwise.
Yes actually correct 👏 👌 but Canadian many people with out jobs longing time how is that .
Yeah… Definitely not reading the room, here. The tariffs made deeply indebted Canadians AND banks alike realize just how excited they were to a downturn, so they’re holding back their spending and loaning. Even my free-spending ex-wife recently told me she got on a budget, like the underworld just froze over.
Thanks for this post and your expert advice