Canada

Canadian Real Estate Sales Hit The Highest Level Ever, Here’s Why It’s Not Surprising

Canadian real estate sales hit a new high, along with the highest unemployment in history. Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) data shows the number of home sales set a record in July. Not just for the month either – it was the biggest month ever. Here’s why the surge was largely expected, and isn’t the clear sign of a return to a booming market. At least yet.

Canadian Real Estate Sales Hit A New Record High

Canadian real estate sales hit a new record monthly high, across the country. There were 63,533 sales reported in July, up 30.5% from the same month last year. On a seasonally adjusted basis, CREA estimates 53,085 sales for the month, up 26.0% from the month before. This isn’t just a high for sale volumes, it’s massive growth not seen in a decade.

Canadian Real Estate Sales

The unadjusted sales for all home types, as reported through the Canadian MLS.

Source: CREA, Better Dwelling.

Last month showed growth accelerated to the highest level in a decade, along with record sale volumes. The 30.5% increase in July is the highest rate of growth since the Great Recession. The number of sales for the month wasn’t just the highest for July either. It was the biggest single month of sales in the history of Canadian real estate. This likely has a few people scratching their heads, amidst the economic environment. However, it actually makes sense if you zoom out from the monthly look.

Canadian Real Estate Sales Change

The annual percent chage of unadjusted sales for all home types, as reported through the Canadian MLS.

Source: CREA, Better Dwelling.

Record High Canadian Home Sales Balances A Record Low

The surge in demand appears to be delayed demand concentrated into a smaller window than usual. Looking at the 12-month rolling average, July comes in at 39,483 sales. Over the previous ten years, the median for the 12-month rolling average is 39,212, a difference of less than 1%. What does that mean? The record low in March and April, was balanced by the surge of traffic in June and July. Demand wasn’t lost, it was delayed, and is currently catching up.

Canadian Real Estate Sales: Rolling Average

The 12-month rolling average of Canadian real estate sales.

Source: CREA, Better Dwelling.

The takeaway? Sale volumes are very high, and it may be surprising as a single data point. However, when you account for artificially suppressed demand and stimulus, it’s expected. If you were ready to buy in March, and the pandemic slowed your buying, you were still ready to buy. You just couldn’t. The BoC’s suppression of mortgage rates also pulls forward demand, helping to bolster numbers. The bigger mystery is how many new stimulus measures the government will attempt, before running into the future demand they borrowed.

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11 Comments

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  • James Wilson 2 months ago

    That makes sense. So how much of a bill did taxpayers get for this? Our children’s children are going to be left with a debt to prop this market up, but the important thing is real estate agents made a little commission.

    • LT 2 months ago

      Mostly trading future economic growth. Can kicking. Everyone does it. Sometimes it’s your own government that lives long enough to find the can.

      • alvi 2 months ago

        Goverments are famous can -kickers.been borrowing heavily since 2008 to buy off millenials, public sector unions and social justice warriors. Trying to rein in govermentment spending is a thankless task, the tendency is towards the path of least resistance i.e. runaway spending and borrowing as an election-buying strategy
        Now the millenials are starting to balk, they are trading their “selfless” care for everyone for their own “selfish” pocket book issues. Sadly even with ultra low interest and prior to this pandemic, low unmployements, governments at all levels(excpet for BC- thanks to the Liberal provinical party) wracked up record debt levels.

  • Audrey Rowe 2 months ago

    Work from home is permanently reshaping San Francisco. The region’s highest paid workers are outbound, leaving people with lower income jobs in the city,

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/remote-work-is-reshaping-san-francisco-as-tech-workers-flee-and-rents-fall-11597413602

  • Trader Jim 2 months ago

    Curve was basically suppose to look like this. August might bump higher, or edge lower. Either way, we should see Sept Oct edge lower.

  • Hgbvv 2 months ago

    Guys guys, lets be realistic here Canadian real estate crisis is caused by foreign criminals parking their money here.

    The government dont care, young people should be up in arms, but they are just too stupid to realize what the government is doing to them. This is just the someone said the comments before, the Canadian government is grinding up their young to feed to the old. Sad to be a young Canadian…..

    The government dont care about you.

    • alvi 2 months ago

      Breaking news all young Canadians are NOT social darwinists, they do love their parents and grandparents and are not interesting in obliterating the existing social contract.

      • Hgbvv 2 months ago

        Looks like their parents dont love them back. They want their children to pay high taxes for their free health care. And get heavily indebted to pump up their house prices. They dont want their children to spend and have a life but instead feed all their income for above mentioned purpose.

        What kind of love is that? Same love slave owners have for their slaves? Time to renegotiate this social contract, its not working for young Canadians. We have the power, let see these blood suckers defend their contract in the hospital. No justice no peace. You are part of the problem

  • L 2 months ago

    Real estate sales hit highest level. Not in Alberta. The rest of Canada has mostly forgotten about Alberta and most real estate news I see is mainly focused on Toronto, Vancouver, Montreal and Ottawa stats. This report would look very different if it were broken down by province or city.

    • Ethan Wu 2 months ago

      Yes, and if it was a report about butterflies, it would also be very different. National reports are for gaining insights into the impact on GDP.

      There’s also a local sales market report from a few days ago, breaking down markets.

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