The Canadian real estate boom is dead and experts see an inevitable correction. Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) data shows home sales dropped in April. Higher mortgage rates and unsustainable prices have vaporized demand, as markets adjust. As big as the drop in demand was last month, economists think we’re just getting started.
Canadian Real Estate Sales Are Down 21%
Canadian real estate sales have slowed but took a sharp turn last month. Seasonally adjusted home sales fell 12.6% in April and were 21% lower than last year’s record high. Falling home sales in Toronto, the country’s largest market, were a big contributor. But 80% of markets showed a drop in sales, so this is a broad issue likely due to the breaking of a speculative mindset.
Canadian Monthly Home Sales
Monthly existing home sales through the MLS.
Source: CREA; Better Dwelling.
Canadian Real Estate Sales and Price Drops Are Just Getting Started, Warns BMO
Canadian interest rates are just off record lows but home sales are still falling. It’s too early for interest rates to have throttled borrowing already — except in a bubble. In a bubble, homebuyers are driven by emotion and pay an emotional premium. Throttling credit takes 18 to 24 months but throttling emotion only takes a few moments. In this case, higher interest rates appear to have broken the speculative mindset.
Canadian Home Sales: Annual Growth
The 12-month change in home sales across Canada.
Source: CREA; Better Dwelling.
“The demand fever in Canadian housing has broken and, who would have thought, all it took was a nudge in interest rates by the Bank of Canada to change sentiment,” quipped BMO senior economist Robert Kavcic. For the past year he argued that this was a case of speculative demand, not a shortage in supply.
“When we speak of housing correction it’s not a question of if, but where, how much and for how long?,” he explained.
BMO warns Ontario’s suburban market is the “shakiest” and particularly vulnerable. Markets with less exuberant valuations will hold up better, they suggest. However, “… the jump in mortgage rates will still be tough to power through,” they warned the bank’s investment clients.
How much will prices fall? “Let’s say that we’re just getting started,” he warns.
The overnight rate has only increased 75 basis points (bps) and things are starting to slow. It’s already hitting buyer psychology, says BMO, and higher rates have barely begun. The bank expects another 100 bps of hikes by the end of July and another 125 bps by the end of the year.
“That effectively means that the market will go from being priced at mortgage rates of roughly 1.5%, to somewhere in the 3.75%-to-4.5% range, depending on how bond yields evolve,” he warned.
The time the correction will take depends on the economy and when inflation slows. According to Kavcic’s research, home prices take 2 to 3 years to bottom and 4 to 5 years to retrace where they were. That timeline is consistent with the forecast shared by Capital Economics last week.
RBC Welcomes A Housing Correction, Just Not A Meltdown
RBC also sees housing demand cooling across Canada, and called it “a welcome correction…” The bank explained the market is past its peak and expected to continue to cool in the coming months.
“We think the sizable drop in activity in April marks a turning point for the Canadian market with further cooling on the way,” explains RBC senior economist Robert Hogue.
“The Bank of Canada’s setting out to aggressively normalizing its monetary policy is a game-changer for the market—turning what has been a tremendous tailwind into a stiff headwind for the market.”
Canadian Real Estate Is On Track To A “Sustained Cooling,” Warns Desjardins
Still not convinced? Desjardins also sees Canadian sales and prices slowing. The financial institution also attributes the slowdown to the normalization of monetary policy. As rates rise, it’ll cool the excess demand seen recently.
“If April’s decline in existing home sales and prices is any indication, we seem to be on track to a sustained cooling in the Canadian housing market as a result of higher borrowing costs,” said Randall Bartlett, Desjardins’ senior director of Canadian economics.
They also see the trend just getting started. “With further interest rate hikes expected and some markets in towns and smaller cities continuing to be well out of balanced territory, we anticipate that we haven’t seen the end of housing market weakness in Canada,” he said.
Low interest rates sent Canadian real estate demand and prices soaring. Cheap money essentially flooded the market to stimulate the record level of demand. As high inflation forces interest rates to remove stimulus, demand is being vaporized. This is helping to restore balance to the market, as investors step back and weigh on whether this is a temporary or medium-term issue.
We encourage you to have a civil discussion. Note that reads "civil," which means don't act like jerks to each other. Still unclear? No name-calling, racism, or hate speech. Seriously, you're adults – act like it.
Any comments that violates these simple rules, will be removed promptly – along with your full comment history. Oh yeah, you'll also lose further commenting privileges. So if your comments disappear, it's not because the illuminati is screening you because they hate the truth, it's because you violated our simple rules.
hahhaha i have been waiting for years for the good news. those FOMO losers can go cry at the bank when they cant make mortgage payments on overextended credit. cheaters will be cheated this time hahaha
That is a very immature comment. One should never be happy at someone else’s loss. Your comment is not one you should be proud of.
And what about millions of Canadians that couldn’t afford to buy a home due to this madness and greed we had over the last two years? All those investors, speculators, multiple property owners and everyone else getting loaded because of the crazy house price book, I bet you none of them gave a shit about the Canadians who can’t afford to own a home due to their greed.
Therefore his comment is not immature, it’s not bad neither, I agree with him 100%, he is spot on.
I’m with you Dave, I hope it crashes and burns, we can celebrate, beer is on me 🍻😂
I want to understand the reason you think home owners are cheaters!!
Because they planned, organized their lives, controlled their spendings, worked hard to build a portfolio??
Its very clear who was a loser and who is a loser to celebrate other loses vs focusing on building their own worth
Don’t worry Ontario your moron Prime Minister will tell you how he is saving you and you will feel great. Hard to blame the West this time
Just like everything these days everyone over reacts. If rents stay high house prices cannot fall much. Also most countries in the world have debt high interest rates will destroy those countries. Inflation is because of lack of goods not because we are over spending. Companies are greedy and know they can charge more even tho their costs are not higher using COVID to get away with it. We should check the record profits of the gas companies for proof
1980 scarboro house detached 1650 sq ft or so $69,900 link underground
2002 did not really move still around the 250k area
2021 house sold for 1.2 mill
Stock mkt higher then years ago same with salaries
It always goes up based on history you just have to ride out the storm from time to time. Looks like it’s raining now with a tornado on its way. Once the storm is over sunshine will prevail and prices will move up as always or at least hold their value.
Rent prices are the real scary thing. As a person and a country one should never be happy about someone’s else loss.
Ps area Finch and McCowan Scarboro
This is a much needed correction. It could be a housing bear market that will be studied well into the future IMO.
Comments are closed.