Canada

Canadian Real Estate Prices Stall In April For The First Time Outside of Recession

Canadian real estate prices made history last month, but not the record most were hoping for. The TeranetNational Bank House Price Index (TNB HPI) index failed to rise in April. The lack of increase is the first outside of recession, going into the usually busy spring season.

Canadian Real Estate Prices Stall The First Time Outside of Recession

The C11, a weighted index of Canada’s largest urban markets, made a historic move – and it wasn’t a good one. Prices in April were virtually flat from the month before, and were up 1.24% from last year. Prices are now down 1.77% from the peak reached in September 2018. Not great, but could be worse.

Teranet-National Bank HPI C11 (Annual Change)

Composite aggregate of home prices in Canada’s 11 largest cities.

Source: National Bank of Canada, Teranet, Better Dwelling.

This was the eighth consecutive month the index hasn’t seen a price increase on a monthly basis. It’s also first April to not see a monthly increase in the past 21 years, outside of recession. The index only goes back 21 years, so there’s no context beyond a couple decades.

Toronto Real Estate Prices Rise, But Annual Gains Decelerate

Toronto real estate prices did buck the trend to make a monthly increase, but it was smaller than last year. Prices in April increased 0.27% from the month before, bringing them 3.29% higher than the year before. Prices are now 4.07% lower than they were during the peak reached in July 2017. The monthly increase was substantial, but smaller than last year’s increase. This caused the annual pace of growth to decelerate once again.

Toronto Real Estate Prices (Teranet-National Bank HPI)

Annual percent change of real estate prices in Toronto.

Source: National Bank of Canada, Teranet, Better Dwelling.

Vancouver Real Estate Prices Fall By All Measures

Vancouver real estate prices dropped on the month, and on an annual basis. Prices in April fell 0.45% from the month before, bringing them 2.81% lower than last year. Compared to the peak, a typical house in Vancouver is now down 4.74% from the high reached in July 2018. The declines probably don’t seem as steep as the numbers you’ve been hearing. This is due to the fact it’s a weighted index, and condos soften the decline.

Vancouver Real Estate Prices (Teranet-National Bank HPI)

Annual percent change of real estate prices in Vancouver.

Source: National Bank of Canada, Teranet, Better Dwelling.

Montreal Real Estate Prices Are The Fastest Growing In Canada

Montreal real estate prices dropped on the month, but is still the fastest rising market. Prices in April fell 0.15% compared to the month before, but are up 5.06% from last year. Despite the large annual increase, the market still lags gains made by other markets.

Montreal Real Estate Prices (Teranet-National Bank HPI)

Annual percent change of real estate prices in Montreal.

Source: National Bank of Canada, Teranet, Better Dwelling.

The year is shaping up to be a soft one for most markets, excluding Montreal and Ottawa. Prices are down slightly according to this index, and are mostly moving sideways. This implies the market is waiting for an external pressure to push prices higher or lower.

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31 Comments

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  • Reply
    Mikey 7 days ago

    Who looks at that Toronto price change chart, and concludes things are back to normal? lol

    • Reply
      GB 7 days ago

      you are right , if by normal you mean back to 3-7% growth we had from 2009-2015

      condo prices keep going up

      905 detached on the rise

      limited supply in 416

      prices will be up year/year in May and in June probably similar to April 4-5% y/y

  • Reply
    Joseph Guo 7 days ago

    I agree. Montreal’s not even close to being in the same league. The axis is only half as high as the other two major cities, Montreal being the second largest metro centre in the country.

  • Reply
    jeff patrick 7 days ago

    Does anyone think Residential Mortgage Rates will go lower? What is the chance of Residential Mortgages in Canada going to .75%-1.25% like Germany? Thanks.

  • Reply
    Grim Reaper 7 days ago

    Price stagnation doesn’t apply to the condominium building I am in.

    A 2 bedroom condo in the building I own a 3 bedroom condo in just sold for virtually the same price I paid a year ago for my condo. My 3 bedroom condo is 500 sq. ft. larger, has a separate laundry room with sink, a large in-unit storage room, a renovated master bathroom, and other better features that the just sold 2 bedroom condo doesn’t have.

    I calculated the theoretical sale price of my 3 bedroom condo based on the square foot price cost of the just sold 2 bedroom condo and arrived at an increase of $369,000 which doesn’t take into account the higher value of the renovated master bathroom and better features of my 3 bedroom condo which, if they were taken into account, would increase the theoretical sale price to around $400,000 more than what I paid a year ago, a 31% increase.

    • Reply
      RainCityRyan 7 days ago

      Hey Grim! Which building, which city?

      • Reply
        Brian Richmond 7 days ago

        Toronto, downtown/ midtown.

        • Reply
          RainCityRyan 6 days ago

          Sweet, 31% yoy gains are totally sustainable! Hold on to it, it should print numbers like that every year from now on! Whatever you do DON’T take profit, only suckers do that.

    • Reply
      Joseph 7 days ago

      You need to find a way to convert that 350k-400k into something concrete.

      Remember, it’s a condo. So condo fees will eventually jump if they haven’t yet. And expect roaches to show up within 2-4 years of the new build.

      You made some good cash at a time when it’s not the most opportune. Now just capitalize!

    • Reply
      Smaug 7 days ago

      Sell it. Easiest $400K you’ll ever make in your life.

  • Reply
    Sea-Ray 7 days ago

    Theoretically, you did well.

    There is still lots of insanity in the market. I was looking at two almost identical places in Burlington in essentially the same neighbourhood. One listed at $899,000 and the other at $1,699,000. Neither is worth $899k, but shows you how wide a gap there is in expectations. The $1,699k home has been reduced twice in the last 6 months as it has been up for a very long time. I was relisted to avoid displaying the first stretch on Zillow at $1,899k. Also, it should be mentioned the $1,699 home did have a modernization reno which likely cost a few bucks.

    • Reply
      Brian Richmond 7 days ago

      The condo that just sold in my building is not unrealistic expectation, it is the sold within a few days of listing price, $1,275,000.

  • Reply
    RE EXPERT EXTRAORDINAIRE 7 days ago

    Gta market sales are up and MOI is down and trending downward.
    Prices are still pretty flat.
    Now is the time people if you are waiting to get into the market with a discount.

    • Reply
      Neo 7 days ago

      Now is ALWAYS the time for a realtor….

    • Reply
      John 7 days ago

      People come here for data, not biased advice from a grifter

      • Reply
        RE EXPERT EXTRAORDINAIRE 6 days ago

        John- I’ve got lots of data. Real data. I dont lie or have any bias I just state the numbers for smart people to use. I can tell you how much money I’ve made from real estate if you like but….. nah you’re not ready for that.

        • Reply
          WorldClassCitizen 6 days ago

          Well, you just lied right there. It is impossible for a person to be free of bias, I bet you think Toronto is a “World Class” city so the current prices are clearly linked to fundamentals and support sustained growth. That is a bias, because if Toronto is World Class than I am the emperor of China.

          • RE EXPERT EXTRAORDINAIRE 6 days ago

            World class zen
            Toronto could very well be a world class city. You will know this when kn 10 years an avg home is worth 1.7 mill

    • Reply
      Rob 7 days ago

      Toronto is just lagging behind Vancouver and prices will eventually come down. Wait a year and see.
      Now’s the worse time to buy RE. The party is over. Expect a slow dragged out decline with a few short spikes but trending down. During spikes agents will scream buying opportunity. People are finally waking up to the debt they need to service at these levels.

  • Reply
    Rana 7 days ago

    Why vancouver prices not falling that fast it is supposed to

    • Reply
      Joseph 7 days ago

      Aren’t they? Take a look at Flip Flops on Twitter. Shows how big the drops have been for owners. $4mil homes now going for $2.5. $1.5 mil homes now available for under $1mil. And by the sounds of it, the inventory is growing. Expect prices to continue to fall. The drop seems to have started late 2017 and continued to where we are now.

      The crazy part? It was tough to have seen this coming a few years back when Vancouver was going nuts with the prices. I feel something similar might end up happening in Toronto. It’s not a cliff drop in prices, but over a year or two. All of a sudden, everything is significantly lower in price than it was 2 years earlier.

      We shall see.

  • Reply
    cto 6 days ago

    RE EXPERT EXTRAORDINAIRE

    “I can tell you how much money I’ve made from real estate if you like but….. nah you’re not ready for that.”

    That’s interesting…? Wouldn’t this be the kind of miracle discovery one would want to keep to themselves? More in it for right? No? Your answer of course is “why should I…, all the smart people are doin it!”….. and that’s all an intelligent person needs to know what’s going on….
    P.S ….”pOnzI sCheMe”

    • Reply
      RE EXPERT EXTRAORDINAIRE 6 days ago

      Of course it’s a ponzi scheme just like anything that is based on the monetary system. That’s how money works.
      And why would I not tell people about my positive experiences in real estate?
      Especially when others here are spewing false information?
      Why wouldnt I want others to succeed? It doesnt sound like you do.
      You can break down numbers on paper and from biased websites all you want and manipulate the data so it suits your needs but for the others who just want straight info I put it out there.
      But what am I telling you this for…
      You know a guy who knows a guy who sold a house…

  • Reply
    cto 6 days ago

    Reply
    Brian Richmond
    17 hours ago
    The condo that just sold in my building is not unrealistic expectation, it is the sold within a few days of listing price, $1,275,000.

    Poor fool!
    Could have had this fully deteached, for $150,000 less:
    https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/20525074/3-bedroom-single-family-house-70-holmesdale-rd-toronto-caledonia-fairbank
    or this:
    https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/20644877/2-1-bedroom-single-family-house-195-berry-rd-toronto-stonegate-queensway
    all within 10min of downtown…oh well
    By the way, with a little more than 5 min effort I’m sure I could find hundreds in the same price range, fully detached, NO maintenance fees, or neighbors upstairs fludding you out after getting stoned from smoking up that legal weed.

  • Reply
    cto 6 days ago

    To continue from my last post, if you go to Vaughan, there’s even more house sub 1.3M.
    like this one within 10min of TTC subway station:
    https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/20407604/3-bedroom-single-family-house-17-southview-dr-vaughan-concord

    WHO THE HELL NEEDS TO LIVE IN “THE BORG” OVER PAY FOR A SUPID CONDO?????????
    LIVE IN AHUGE HOUSE, AND OWN TERRA FIRMA!

    • Reply
      Grim Reaper 3 days ago

      Obviously, you don’t understand the Toronto real estate market. Those who want to live in “the core” of Toronto, downtown and midtown, don’t want to live where you state they can get more for less.

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