Canadian Real Estate Prices Have Officially Crashed In 18 Markets

Canadian real estate markets went from boom to crash in less than a year. Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) data shows every major composite index was down from its peak in November. Over a dozen of Canada’s real estate markets have even “crashed” as a sharp mix of reality and higher interest rates sink in. 

Canadian Real Estate Prices Have Dropped $142k From Peak

Canadian real estate prices are off the peak in every major market across the country. At the national level, a typical home is down 16.4% (-$142,300) since peaking in March 2022. No market is being spared, with some falling more than 20% from peak—fitting the technical definition of a crash. 

Canadian Real Estate Prices Are Down In Every Market

The composite benchmark price of a home in Canadian real estate markets. 

Source: CREA; Better Dwelling.

Canadian Housing Has Crashed In 18 Markets So Far

Markets experiencing the largest percentage point decline have shed a quarter of their value. The biggest drops were observed in London-St Thomas (-26.1%), Kitchener-Waterloo (-25.8%), and Cambridge (-25.1%). All three markets have officially crashed, with 18 major market indexes showing a crash. 

Canadian Real Estate Prices From Peak (%)

The percentage point change in price from peak to November for composite home prices by market.

Source: CREA; Better Dwelling.

Those in the Greater Toronto region might have noticed the biggest drops a short drive away. In fact, 9 of the top ten largest price drops occurred in the Greater Toronto region. Special shoutout to Hamilton (-22.6%), a small commuter city about an hour out of Toronto that caught the attention of the IMF in 2019 for its forthy growth.

Canadian Real Estate Has Seen Markets Drop Up To $398k Since Peak

Canadian real estate’s astronomical growth means very large dollar declines. The largest drops from peak were in Oakville-Milton (-$398,700), Mississauga (-$286,000), and Cambridge (-$249,600). Once again, those markets are all within an hour of Toronto, and considered commuter suburbs. In general, a typical home across Ontario (-$210,900) has seen the price drop significantly since peaking in March 2022.  

Canadian Real Estate Prices From Peak ($)

The dollar value change in price from peak to November for composite home prices by market.

Source: CREA; Better Dwelling.

Toronto & Vancouver Real Estate Are Correcting, Almost At Crash 

Toronto and Vancouver real estate didn’t quite make the extremes, but they aren’t immune to the correction. A typical home in Toronto has dropped 18.4% (-$245,200) since peaking in March 2022. Over in Vancouver, prices are down 10.5% (-$133,100) from the April 2022 peak. It’s worth mentioning that Vancouver prices didn’t experience as large of a boom as Toronto over the past two years. However, these are still 6-figure losses in less than a year.  

The Canadian real estate price correction is widely blamed on interest rates. Those play a big role when it comes to financing, and profitability for investors, helping to cool demand. However, it’s worth noting that prices peaked in March—before interest rates had a substantial impact on buying power. Most buyers would have a buyer pre-approval that would have limited the impact of the rate hike on absorption. 

Some banks have argued this reinforces the belief that sentiment was driving growth. Sentiment-driven price growth tends to produce the largest bubbles and sharpest corrections, since the only thing that has to change is the belief prices will always rise. It appears more people are starting to realize prices can’t always go up. 



We encourage you to have a civil discussion. Note that reads "civil," which means don't act like jerks to each other. Still unclear? No name-calling, racism, or hate speech. Seriously, you're adults – act like it.

Any comments that violates these simple rules, will be removed promptly – along with your full comment history. Oh yeah, you'll also lose further commenting privileges. So if your comments disappear, it's not because the illuminati is screening you because they hate the truth, it's because you violated our simple rules.

  • Ray 1 year ago

    My neighbor sold his semi in
    North Guelph Ontario for $ 1.2 million last March. The neighbor next to him couldn’t even get any offers at $750k and had to take it off the market, this week. Prices are dropping very badly and they’re trying to hide it on the news.

    • Jason Chau 1 year ago

      IIRC boards trim extreme price movements. Agents publish the extreme gains which drives the narrative and moves baseline prices higher, but then hide the losses so prices move with the narrative.

      Canada’s housing market is less transparent than a scammy crypto coin.

    • Old Nick 1 year ago

      For sure they are trying to hide it, the phycology of the masses will perpetuate the tanking! This is only just starting, Fear is the greatest emotion know to man. When this Fear goes viral on housing watch the biggest crash in recorded history transpire! I’ve been called a moron since 2019, I have happily sold all me RE 2019-2021 and ready to buy everything at fire sales!

      • Ron 1 year ago

        Sounds like you have a solid plan. Would you do me a favor and let me know when the market has tanked?


        • Ron 1 year ago

          This article focuses on single family homes and the like. i.e. Condos, townhouses, etc. But what about the larger picture? Retail, industrial, and multifamily units such as those owned by public and private REITs? How are they weathering the storm? Rents are typically continuing to trend upwards due to strong employment and inflation tailwinds

  • Ryan Barrett 1 year ago

    The scary thing is, you’ll need a crash on a crash for Canadian housing prices to come back to reality. We’re just getting started.

    • Kevin Logan 1 year ago

      Not even close to where it needs to be. Unfortunately central banks are about looting wealth, not redistirbuting it. They’ll let a 60% increase in shelter costs annihilate the economy, but will panic about a 20% reversal because that’s money these sleazeballs think they earned.

  • Geoff 1 year ago

    The headline of this article would have you believe the crash is nation-wide. Take a look at the areas most affected by large swings in value, they are all in either Ontario or BC. Two of the most over-priced, over-inflated markets in the country, and most prone to a wild fluctuation in values once cooler heads and market forces prevailed. The rest of the country, for the most part, did not suffer nearly as bad, a minor to moderate correction at best. BC and Ontario needed the correction. Housing prices don’t go radically upwards forever, despite what speculators would have you think.

    • Tim 1 year ago

      Only if you have a brain injury, because the title LITERALLY SAYS THE NUMBER OF MARKETS.

      You think you’re just slipping in that prices are falling in BC and Ontario, which is false—they’re falling everywhere, but it just proves the industry is greasy and clearly trying to create a false narrative that doesn’t exist.

      • RW 1 year ago

        The title should have been “Everything’s Okay Geoff, Don’t Cry.”

      • Duane 1 year ago

        Not everywhere. Calgary and Edmonton are up!

        • Anna 1 year ago

          In Halifax the only thing that’s changed is the insane bidding wars that were fueled by realtor greed and people coming from other provinces with extra $$$ to throw onto a bid. That hit it’s peak around May-June. There’s a couple websites encouraging people to come here and buy so they can rent at the ridiculously high prices because of the housing shortage. Now you can see the new builds, less than 2 yrs old, being sold at huge profit as those “investors” move on to their next deal.
          So on paper I suppose it might look to outsiders that prices have dropped because the 100-250k over ask sales from last spring are over. But they haven’t dropped. Prices are still way over what they were in 2020 (many double) it’s not stopping.

    • Omar 1 year ago

      haha. You might be too dumb to comment buddy. The headline couldn’t be more specific but all you saw was a lack of commission cheques and your rental properties taking a bath when you read it, so you might not have noticed.

    • Greatest Fools 1 year ago

      Sounds like somebody bought a Canadian home in early 2022 or what?

      On Craigslist, bag holders are trying to sell their Nova Scotia or New Brunswick acreage for months now and no one’s biting. Land was probably bought as a flip to a Greater Fool.

    • Ryan Barrett 1 year ago

      Wait until we get to 7% rates. If the target is 2%, and the real inflation rate is likely near 10% then how many apples do you need to sell Johnny to flatten the curve. And will that VIA train in any direction ever arrive???

      • Erik 1 year ago

        They sell apples in via trains?! And why did Johnny buy a bushel at peak anyway?

    • Ravi 1 year ago

      toronto is pretty bad at almost 20%….vancouver at 10.5% is not so bad….

  • justin stein 1 year ago

    It is impossible that floating rate went from 1.55 the low to now was told 6.75 in one year not to think price of homes would not fall
    Obviously why not borrow a million dollars total interest $15,000.00
    Now $65,000.00
    I Think we have a problem 😕

  • Paul 1 year ago

    I hope PROPERY TAXES decrease by same amount.

    • ulsterman 1 year ago

      The mill rate may in fact rise because the city still needs the same amount of property taxes to run the city. That doesn’t fluctuate with the price of houses. Mill rate x assessed value = property tax levied on your property.

  • Terminator 1 year ago

    Homes has quite a ways to drop in price yet, before there will be any rush to buy. February will show loads of stock and few buyers willing to take on the new aggressive mortgages.

  • owen culp 1 year ago

    Might be time to move to Newfoundland. Take a step back and relax.

  • Al 1 year ago

    Just wait for the bankruptcies in January.

  • Mike 1 year ago

    I hope they crash even more and flush all the greed down the toilet.

  • Danielle 1 year ago

    I just don’t understand how so many people were willing to pay so much for old homes that were not even worth the listing price! This will have long-lasting impacts on families who purchased properties that have now depreciated.

  • Marcelo 1 year ago

    BS! I would call it minor readjustment… Even dropping 20%, the real state market is still crazily absurdly gigantly inflated and expensive…

  • Sukhvinder Singh 1 year ago

    Much needed correction, it’s late but data clearly shows the decline in home prices, the government should have taken early steps to control the multiple home buyers and interest rate.

  • DS 1 year ago

    I 100% agree that the Hamilton CMA has been overvalued, but where I disagree is with the framing of Hamilton, and Cambridge for that matter, as commuter suburbs. This is a term of convenience that is not completely accurate and implies that Toronto is a destination for people living in these cities. These are former independent industrial centres that have become integrated into a larger interdependent metropolitan area. Up until the arrival of 2 way GO, service, less than 5% of people from Hamilton commuted to Toronto, and I am sure that this has increased lately as WFH and affordability issues have changed commuting patterns, but the framing of all South Ontario cities as suburbs of Toronto reinforce bad planning decisions that make that trajectory self fulfilling.

  • Chris 1 year ago

    Hamilton is not a “small commuter city.” It’s about 600k people, on par with Atlanta and SanDiego.

    • Lauren Maddox 1 year ago

      Atlanta and San Diego are non-amalgamated Metropolitan areas. Similar to when Toronto was six boroughs or New York, NY was 5. Atlanta supports a greater area of 5.1 million people, and San Diego 3.29 million.

      Hamilton supports Greater Toronto’s population. Mississauga is a city larger than Hamilton, but is a suburb in the same way.

  • Dennis_K 1 year ago

    In as much I am cheering this dumpster fire on, mainly because I’m suffering from exorbitant housing costs as we speak (with belt tightening in terms of food and fuel – no exaggeration, no kidding), I’m not sure if this ‘official crash’ is even enough to bring housing costs back down to the realm of median affordability – it really needs to go much further, simply because money based on domestic incomes simply isn’t there.

    Looking at the Housing Affordability Monitor produced by the National Bank of Canada (dated November 30, 2022; economic-analysis.html), it’s abundantly clear (even when looking at urban composite prices for both condo & non-condo dwellings) that median incomes are not even close (with the exception of Quebec) to what they need to be (i.e. ‘qualifying incomes’) to support current median home prices. Excepting Quebec, all qualifying income values are in the 6-figure range (ranging from $100K in Winnipeg to $347k in Vancouver), while median incomes are all only in the 5-figure range (with the Ontario city of Hamilton actually being the highest at ~$93k). And this is in the context of increasing non-housing costs as related to inflation (e.g. good, fuel, etc.).

    I’m not sure why people seem to think that the ‘strong labour market’ and ‘immigration’ will put a floor under current prices — the former suggests that current incomes are sufficient to support such prices (which the above shows they are not), and given this, the latter presumes that newcomers will somehow instantly earn more than their established peers (or, more likely, have on-going access to foreign or ‘unoffical’ liquidity – which on it’s own causes distortions in domestic pricing).

  • John Grant 1 year ago

    If you want to know where real estate is heading, take a look at a chart of Nortel stock in 2001…exact same BS.

Comments are closed.