Canada

Canadian Markets Are Seeing A Real Estate Boom With Population Declines

Canadian real estate prices didn’t rise on fundamentals, so why would a change make a difference? Statistics Canada (Stat Can) data shows Canadian population growth was flat in Q3 2020. Two provinces, home to the country’s busiest markets, weren’t lucky enough to be flat though. Both B.C. and Ontario saw declines from the previous quarter. 

Canadian Population Growth Is Flat From The Previous Quarter

Canada’s high population growth ground to a halt. The population was estimated at 38,008,005 in Q3 2020, up just 0.01% from the previous quarter. That works out to an increase of just 2,767 more people across the country. Compared to the same quarter last year, the population is 0.54% higher. This is the lowest rate of annual growth since at least the 1950s, but likely goes back much further.  

Canadian Population Growth

The annual percent change of Canada’s population.

Source: Statistics Canada, Better Dwelling.

Ontario’s Population Was In Decline Last Quarter

Ontario’s real estate markets are booming, but it has nothing to do with population growth. The province’s population was estimated to be 14,733,119 in Q3 2020, down 0.01% from the previous quarter. That works out to a net-loss of about 895 people from the previous quarter. Compared to the same quarter last year, the population is just 0.65% higher. This level of annual growth is rarely seen in the province, but it did happen recently – in Q2 2015. Other than that though, it’s been a while! 

BC’s Population Is Declining Even Faster Than Ontario

British Columbia is seeing one of the bigger quarterly declines across the country. The province’s population fell to 5,145,851 in Q3 2020, down 0.04% from the previous quarter. This works out to a net loss of 1,861 people, almost double the one Ontario saw. Compared to last year, the population is about 0.39% higher. This is the lowest annual growth the province has seen since at least 1950. 

Canada’s population growth was flat, and this is attributed to immigration. While some believe this should be resolved soon, some experts don’t see it that way. RBC economists have forecasted the decline in immigration is likely to persist until at least 2022. Closed borders and a soft employment market are likely to make it more difficult to attract talent near term. 

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5 Comments

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  • SH 1 month ago

    Trudeau will flood the country with foreign nationals as soon as it is feasible. I’m thinking the deluge will begin with a trickle in March and building up into a torrent by the summer. Poor job market? So what? Canadian citizen taxpayers will pick up the tab for the increased welfare benefits. Trudeau extended CERB payments to foreign students and he will probably extend other welfare programs to non-Canadians.

    • Enough is enough 4 weeks ago

      I’d love to see our government putting Canadians first for a change. We need to fix this mess with regards to housing affordability for current generations and future ones too. Fewer people having kids because they cannot afford the cost. Horrible our government is more concerned about “fixing” this via immigration

  • Paul Viau 1 month ago

    You should track the real estate incline in Halifax. I swear the amount of people coming into the province is incredible.

  • Doomcouver 1 month ago

    This just goes to show that it’s a fake narrative that immigration is the main driver for Canada’s high house prices. The real truth is Canada’s high house prices are driven by massive domestic speculation. Canadian greed and FOMO has created one of the biggest asset bubbles in human history. When prices normalize the wealth destruction will be prolific.

  • fred 1 month ago

    That is because Bank of Canada pumping money in real estate , so population decline dose not matter.

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