Canadian Job Vacancies Fall Sharply As Population Growth Surges

Canada’s vast choice of unfilled jobs is quickly disappearing as the economy begins to tighten. Statistics Canada (Stat Can) data shows the number of job vacancies made a sharp decline in October 2022. That’s good news for moderating inflation as economic slack is absorbed, but also indicates we’re past peak growth and heading towards recession. 

Canadian Job Vacancies Are Declining Sharply, Especially In Construction

The latest numbers show unfilled jobs fell sharply across Canada. There were  902,600 job vacancies in October, down 44,300 (-4.8%) from a month before. This is a huge change from the 1,000,000+ jobs that were advertised back in April. It was the lowest number of vacancies reported since August 2021.  

The real estate slowdown may have had something to do with it. The biggest drop was seen in construction (-17,200), followed by the semi-related waste management (-11,000). The agency specified no industry saw any significant gains in the month, indicating this is a broad slowdown occurring. 

Canadian Job Vacancies Are Making Sharp Decline 

The number of unfilled roles at Canadian companies. 

Source: Statistics Canada; Better Dwelling.

The job vacancy rate, the share of jobs compared to the size of the workforce, has also fallen sharply. The job vacancy rate fell to 5.0% in October, down 0.6 points from the month before. The rate is a full point lower than peak vacancies in April, once again confirming the decline.

The balance of power is beginning to shift back to employers. Back in April, the job vacancy rate was significantly higher than the unemployment rate as excess capacity was seen. The latest read on the unemployment rate was 5.1%, meaning the indicators have flipped. 

Canada Has Seen A Sharp Decline In Job Vacancies As Population Surges

The reported contraction comes in the same week Canada reported its population exploded in growth. The country’s population increased at the fastest quarterly rate (0.9%) since 1957, and added a whopping 866,000 people in the past year, the most post war. Since these numbers are estimates for October 1st, they likely haven’t been added to the employment data yet. The growth is expected to help drive the unemployment rate in the near-term. 

Rising interest rates have significantly reduced excess capacities. This is reflected in job vacancies making a shape decline after rates began to normalize. The good news is inflationary pressures are reducing, helping to stabilize the economy. The bad news is this is another indicator that recession is fast approaching. 

8 Comments

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  • Mark Bayly 5 months ago

    Trudeau’s insane economic and immigration policies might help him and dinghy Singhy get re elected Say goodbye to the economy.

  • Pierre-Paul 5 months ago

    Not seeing the chart

  • Chris 5 months ago

    Does the data go into how many of these people are new arrivals or whether there was a post-pandemic baby boom as people got vaccinated and went from agoraphobic to hedonistic? Two very different types of population increase.

  • shashikant kapoor 5 months ago

    There are various variables for low job vacancies. Maybe more businesses are shutting down or businesses are trimming their labours. To think economy is tending towards low inflation could be wrong.
    Prices are all time high and too far from 2% inflation.

  • J 5 months ago

    I wonder how much of our federal policy is influenced by big corporations at this point. Everything that’s been happening is a wealth transfer up.

    Even with all the stimulus geared towards helping the lowest income families, the future tax debts will be pulled along by the shrinking middle class while the ultra-wealthy households leverage hard on negative rate loans.

    Now that rates are normalized and likely going higher to “fight” inflation, the middle and low-income earners are hard hit while the rich can still go on willy-nilly with all cash buyers waiting for the bottom.

    We need more transparency in this country if we’re to survive as a union. Too much divisive politics happening between the left and right. Sadly, no political leadership from either side of the aisle. Should we just all be individual sovereign provinces and let it play out? Seems like that’s where we’re heading.

  • Mark Bayly 5 months ago

    The debt crises will kill Canada Government and consumer debt is astronomical. Government debt will have to go much higher to pay for the government services for all the vote importing immigration. Quebec and Alberta are the only two provinces with a future The rest of the country will be an overpopulated disaster

  • Duke 5 months ago

    The liberals want more of us unemployed so that their rich friends can cut salaries and pocket the profits. It’s that simple.
    The Tiff himself said so.

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