Canada Global

Canadian Housing Is The Least Affordable In The World… For Local Incomes

Canadian home prices have been growing at a breakneck speed, and incomes aren’t even close to keeping up. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) numbers show Canada topped the house price to income index. Canada’s gap between house price and income growth grew so fast, it tops the list of high-income, advanced economies.

House Price To Income Ratio

The house price to income ratio is a basic affordability measure, to see if incomes are keeping up. To get the ratio, they take the cost of a median home, and compare it to median income. The lower the ratio, the better income growth is doing relative to house price growth. The higher the ratio, the worse income is doing compared to house price growth. Lower ratios are more likely to support home prices, since incomes can more easily carry them. Generally high ratios are only seen in bubbles and developing nations.

Reading the index put out by the OECD needs a quick explainer, because it’s not a straight ratio. Instead, the organization uses an index with a 2015 base. In plain english, the index is set at 100 for 2015, not the actual ratio. They’re assuming that 2015 was a generally accepted normal year. The increase or decline is relative to that year. For example, if the index hits 120, it means home prices grew 20% faster than income from that period. If it drops to 90, it means incomes grew 10% faster than home prices (or home prices fell) from that year.

Canada Has The Highest Ratio In The OECD

Canada’s house price to income ratio is the highest in the world – by a large margin. The index reached 122.9 in Q4 2018, up 2% from the year before. The country was followed by Portugal, which sat 5.2 points lower. Slovenia reached third on the index, 6.68 points lower than Canada. Most of you probably couldn’t point out those two countries on a map.

OECD House Price To Income Ratio

An index of house price to ratios for OECD countries.

Source: OECD, Better Dwelling.

For context, the US is at 108.11, which means the gap between housing and income grew at 40% of the rate of Canada. The UK, which is being called a “bubble on a bubble,” sat at 107.82. There’s undeniably a lot of home price growth in Canada, or relative income stagnation – your pick.

Growth Peaked In The First Quarter of 2016

The good news is Canada’s ratio has begun to stall. In Q4 2018, the ratio only grew 0.02% from the quarter previous. The biggest jump occurred in Q1 2016, when quarter-over-quarter growth peaked at 4.11%. Since then, the ratio has gradually tapered to mostly flat movements.

Canada House Price To Income Change

The quarterly percentage change in Canada’s house price to income ratio.

Source: OECD, Better Dwelling.

Canada’s gap between home price and income growth dwarfs any other developed country. Over the past 3 years, Canadians have seen prices soar over 20% faster than incomes have been able to grow. Home price growth is cooling in the first quarter of 2019, likely to bring the ratio down on the next report. However, it’s still a pretty big gap created over the past few years.

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78 Comments

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  • Liquidity, Liquidity, Liquidity 3 weeks ago

    If the real estate agents aren’t old enough to remember what happened the last time things were like this, find an older real estate agent. In the late 1980s, a bunch of 20 something sales people were shoveling the same pile of poop – foreign buyers, immigration, world class city, etc.

    The fact of the matter is, home prices can’t improve faster than the people that support them. Self-ish fools dismiss this as jealousy, not everyone can be a homeowner. That’s true, and aside from not everyone wants to be a homeowner, you’re forgetting that not everyone can absorb your home at the the price you think it’s worth.

  • MM 3 weeks ago

    The true value of this index is not to show that prices are unsustainable, but to show how much supply country is lacking.
    If country is an investor paradise and supply quickly meets the demand then an average person has no problem to buy home considering average income. Simply because supply and demand are balanced.
    But if country is a victim of socialist rent control and declaring investors and landlords as public enemies, then there is no surprise that investors are locked with tenant paying below market price and landlord is not able to come to bank saying “Hey look, demand is high, my rental income increased, give me another mortgage now to satisfy that demand”.
    As a result, supply can’t keep up with demand and in simple words, for every 25 buyers/renters we have just one available property. Average income is not relevant because only winner with highest income gets the deal signed.
    Such conditions are guaranteed by government to continue and supported by socialist voters with no economic education, I would not bet on Canada becoming a free market country.

    • Yi 3 weeks ago

      lol. I love when self-indulgent dummies repeat lobbyist talking points, and don’t realize the basics of supply and demand. Learn how yield capitalization for real estate development works.

      Peak cycle for prices includes peak development for new housing, not because the government was restricting supply, but because there was no developer incentive to build prior to that. When the incentive to sell outpaces the incentive to rent, they build new housing. That’s why there’s a record pipeline right now.

      When the incentive to build purpose built rentals increase, they begin building more purpose built rentals. This has to do with yield capitalization, and how commercial real estate development works. Canada’s extended business cycle meant there wasn’t a prime opportunity to build purpose built rentals since the 1990s.

      Honestly, if you’re going to rant about policy, become a Realtor in Ontario. Do you want to know why Realtors don’t whine about it as much as home owners like you? Because it’s actually one of the first things you learn, pricing real estate for yields.

      There’s not one city that became a global leader without rent stabilization. The reason being amateur landlords depend on poorly misinformed people like you, that bleed a city dry until young people just move to a new one.

      • Quan 3 weeks ago

        The person that wrote it was supply is either a troll or not quite smart enough to understand the complexities of commercial development.

        Every middle aged guy whose net-worth is in their house thinks if the government would just let developers build towers that cost a billion dollars, they would build an unlimited number without needing to balance the return for themselves.

        An important to remember factor is in a housing bubble, everyone that owns a house thinks they’re an investment genius. They’ve probably never seen a commercial finance book.

      • MM 3 weeks ago

        I don’t really know what can I say to a person that thinks that “That’s why there’s a record pipeline right now.”.
        What an uneducated kid.
        Record high numbers of new construction is a story of the past. It happened ONLY because 2016-2017 were super hot years and investors could finance those projects. Today you see the effect of environment that was 3 years ago and on the horizon there is nothing else except new construction cancellations, delays and not starting.
        Don’t believe me, go watch Steve Saretsky who has been reporting new builds disappear for last month, kid.
        Its actually the worst nightmare for bears. Without a recession, moving half way to real estate cycle when new construction is already stopping. The new builds is a main weapon of mass destruction during crashes because it cannot be quickly stopped. And Canada already destroyed that weapon in half.

        • chris 3 weeks ago

          The thing that strikes me about all the comments here is that owning property and being first is the key to wealth. Working is for suckers. They are at best a source of rents. This disgust with the people who do everything will turn rather dark once they wake up and realize you did nothing to earn all this wealth you are hoarding.

          • MM 3 weeks ago

            Well, I can agree it is sad.
            Kiyosaki has a really good quote about it.
            The regular education turns you into wrong direction. It is based on teaching you how not to make mistakes, to fear mistakes. And it causes you to avoid mistakes by all means possible, even if it means no experience.
            That’s why while salaried workers are trying not to make mistake by timing the market and buying in the correct time, rich people are trying, learning, making mistakes and learning even more…
            Just as an example, if you take a look at the most successfull RE investors today with hundreds of properties. 90% of them were burned in 2008, went bankrupts etc…But they learned a lot, they switched on their imagination and creativity and it created wealth based on what they learned.
            People who are trying to avoid their first mistake by all means haven’t even started to learn anything.

          • Joseph 3 weeks ago

            MM, there wasn’t anyone burned in Canada in 2008. That’s the issue! You’re mixing up the US for Canada. The problem is Canadians didn’t learn from 2008. We should have. So much for our missed opportunity as a nation. Maybe it’ll hit is 2 fold when the bottom falls out this time around.

    • WorldClassCitizen 3 weeks ago

      Go back to Russia and peddle your fake news and propaganda else where

    • manzoorn 2 weeks ago

      Does not make sense. Have you really written what you wanted too?

  • cto 3 weeks ago

    MM
    Are you a condo landlord, ?…sorry don’t mean to pry but…
    why do you make it sound like you are stressed out about not getting enough rent for your rentals?
    i know, i know, rent controls, right?…
    weird though…just yesterday reading study about how 1/2 the Cities population can’t survive on what rent specuvestors are asking? (2000/mnth for 1 bdrm)..too much!!!!
    you know…some of the cities population make yearly gross of about 90,000+/ pp. by stats canada they rep about 10%.
    Most of the newbies 30 yrs old and younger that would rent that 1 bdrm make in the $50000-60000 range and they may be, may be…. 10%.
    Know what, i suggest stats Can for good positive info,,,because i smell a rat!
    A sound economy is built on jobs and fundamentals. in other words, your City can compete with the world if it can sell it’s primary product at competitive prices. if, due to external factors, prices get too high for business to survive, (such as housing costs), then a correction, or recession is imminent
    . the longer this game persists, the worse it will be. it will not be a crash, but a very,… very long excruciating downturn. to me, its better to rip the bandaid off you know…

    • MM 3 weeks ago

      I’m not stressed at all. I clearly said that I would not bet on Canada becoming free market. Moreover, I’m counting on it NOT becoming a free market. Good luck surprising me.
      The fact that your are switching subject to “stressed out” shows how your life satisfaction level is low and personal targeting is your last resort to balance your feelings.

      Regarding your “meaningful” part of the message, good luck expecting that somebody will finally notice that you can’t afford renting. In fact, your application would simply be rejected and a higher earner applicant will get the rental application signed.
      “If you are not interested in money, money are not interested in you”. Robert Kiyosaki.

      • WorldClassCitizen 3 weeks ago

        If a large segment f the rental population can’t make rent do you think they will stay in the city?
        Currently companies are having trouble attracting C-suite level executives from other cities because they get wayyyyy less square footage wise for the same price. Doesn’t make good business sense really and whatever you can do in Toronto you can do for half the price and twice the pay in Chicago so why would anyone want to move here?

        • MM 3 weeks ago

          It is a reasonable question, I agree.
          But there is another question that always follows the one you asked.
          And the question is “Who is gonna pay to fix the situation”?
          You automatically assume that homeowners and landlords are gonna say “Ok guys, we are fine to get into bigger negative cashflow just to make you all happy”.
          Unfortunately, in real life taxpayer pays for everything. Or just an average tenant. You wanna remove burden from executive tenants, okay, no problem, lots of resale minwage workers and taxpayers would be happy to help you.

          • WorldClassCitizen 3 weeks ago

            Aren’t homeowners and landlords also taxpayers?
            Ultimately current homeowners and landlords will be the ones paying. What happens when your one bedroom condo you rented out is now being occupied by six people, who is liable? Who is the one that will get in trouble for providing inadequate housing?
            Or, what about people just not paying rent , sure the law is on your side about that but how effective is the Landlord and Tenant Board of arbitrating this kind of thing in a timely manner? What if you just have really awful tenants that know their rights and what they can get away with?
            And when the homeowner or landlord wants out, who is going to buy? When debt is no longer cheap who is going to take on the burden?
            Ultimately it remains in the best interests of everyone that real estate and rent remain firmly tied to fundamentals otherwise everyone is screwed.

          • MM 3 weeks ago

            No bro, it doesn’t work like this. Never was, never will be.
            You simply cannot screw up the situation and place burden on businesses. The one who created these ridiculous conditions is liable to fix them.
            Don’t tell me scary stories how rent control protects you. Are you saying that you can live 6 people in a studio? Good luck. After one ignored warning you are evicted, even you, entitled god and emperor tenant is not allowed to break city bylaws with square footage per person and number of rooms per person.

            Not paying rent? Again, try it and be evicted no longer than 6 months even if you are super pro renter. Landlord will rise price to market after evicting you, while for you it will likely be the very last successful rental experience before nobody accepts you.

            When landlords are abused, they just stop building more. And when it happens, nothing can help you.

            I really have hard time believing that you treat rent control as your protection. It creates damage for you, not for landlord.
            If there is no rent control, supply quickly catches up with demand. But with rent control,…
            Let’s say an average rental price growth should be ~5%…and let’s say you take advantage of rent control and you do get 1.8% annual rent increases for 10 years. Sounds cool, eh? You save the difference between 5% and 1.8%. But everyone else, new tenants are paying quickly rising price, 10% higher each year.
            And does rent control really helps you after 10 years when you move out? Nope, you go to another place and find that prices grew 10% each year, while you COULD AVOID THAT, as I mentioned earlier the natural growth would be just 5% if you were smarter.
            So eventually rent control forces every person to live with 10% rent increases annually, even with some delays. While in alternative reality they could just live with 5% increases even in such hot market as Toronto.

          • WorldClassCitizen 3 weeks ago

            Never said anything about rent control. In fact my scenario was there was no rent control. The above was a thought experiment of what could happen if rental AND home prices continue to rise and continue to be separate from fundamentals.

            I think you’re upset by this because you know it could happen. Hell I’ve seen it happen, its called a slum. People get creative when there choices are rent or food.

          • Average Man 3 weeks ago

            My answer is always the same. Start building public housing again.

          • MM 3 weeks ago

            Average Man, public housing uses your money as taxpayer. You don’t have that much money to pay in taxes.
            And inefficiency of public management also puts additional burden on you for future years.
            Socialists often hope that government can solve their problems. Unfortunately, only understanding market forces and driving them in right direction is the only possible way.

          • Investor 2 weeks ago

            You sound like you live in another planet, but I guess it’s because you have no idea what price correction is when it comes to real estate. I also couldn’t help noticing that you’re so reliant on Kiyosaki’s investment principles – you’re obviously a newbie to investing.

        • MM 3 weeks ago

          And of cause we should close our eyes on the fact that Chicago population has been decreasing for a long time…Just to make conversation going.

          • Big Joe 3 weeks ago

            obviously theres tenants lined up around the block looking to pay 2k a month for 230 sq ft where you can shit and cook breakfast all at the same time.. C’mon

  • Fraser 3 weeks ago

    YI – Thanks for the info, makes sense to me…so tell us, where do see the market going in Canada over the next few years and is this even predictable in any way…?

  • cto 3 weeks ago

    Sorry MM, you read very wrong.
    I failed to mention that i am in my 50s, and i have a family with a nice house in metro almost paid for.
    But,,of course i bought at a different time. so you are not a very got judge of character.
    Ok,…so you are still pretty young maybe.
    lets just say i have seen some crazy shit come down in this 1st world country over the past 20-30 years. i have owned tonnes of real estate, (including my Georgian Bay cottage), but i have only ever seen the mania that has overcome T,O condo’s preceeding a correction,….not a crash. but a correction.

    • MM 3 weeks ago

      Then your personal targeting is very unnecessary behaviour.
      The problem that you are mentioning that people are struggling to pay rent is of cause a big issue. But you can’t resolve it by dumping prices. Even if you succeed with that, construction will be stopped and population will need to pay double price later for asking developers to work overtime with double capacity just to compensate damage that you made.
      Unfortunately, market is balancing itself in rent. Many people are forced to downgrade rental conditions or move to suburbs. Even minwage worker can afford renting a room near major subway today for $1100/mo. But its not a desirable lifestyle for most people. Rent control is doing all that crap and you placed your anger on prices instead of targeting key reason.
      I personally don’t even include appreciation expectations in my forecast. But I do include rental prices growth, because everything that government is doing today inevitably will cause rental prices to skyrocket even more. And I actually think that my forecast will prove to be very very conservative. I hope that market will not force people to pay $3k/mo for 1bedroom, but I can’t yet imagine how it will be achieved.

  • MOFO 3 weeks ago

    It will be interesting to see if they eliminate the Stress Test for buyers who lock in 10 year mortgages (currently at 2.99% at HSBC).

    • Peter 3 weeks ago

      HSBC only does collateral mortgages as far as I know. Caveat emptor.

      • MM 3 weeks ago

        HSBC still follows regulations that force lenders to charge only 3-month interest penalty after first five years.

  • Mmr 3 weeks ago

    Most people who buy Toronto and Vancouver bring money from home country so local income irrelevant for quite some time now. It’s only applicable city like Ottawa aka most boring shitty city in Canada where local income only souce to buy home. Also please stop whining how many years it will keep going on. No one force any one to live or buy property at Toronto or Vancouver…dont afford it? Dont like it? Get the f*** out then please.

    • C.o.V. 3 weeks ago

      Mmr…. lol…. get your head out of your derrière…..take your Audi back to your dealership before you can’t afford the lease anymore and get a real job. It’s so hard not to get personal when you see comments like yours. First the real estate spin doctors wanted us to believe that foreign investment is only a small part of the housing activity in van and TO and now you come along and tell us most people who buy in those cities bring wads of cash from their home country, rendering local incomes meaningless when it comes to real estate….. lol…..

      • Mmr 3 weeks ago

        Dont worry about me lmao…I guess you new on this forum….Toronto property owners like us already have return upto 300 percent since 2009….so yes let me enjoy my Audi while you cry like a baby and pay 2500 rent for shoe box condo you renting and do three jobs to support your self….enjoy.

        • C.o.V. 3 weeks ago

          Not worried about you, buds. I sold my condo last year and am happily paying the 2500 bucks in rent right now in my penthouse apartment overlooking the mountains and Harbor while enjoying taking my Beamer out (which I paid for in cash) into the hills as I please.
          Cheerio!
          Remember, you don’t make money in real estate until you sell….so have fun watching your “equity” evaporate every day…. tick tock…..

          • Mmr 3 weeks ago

            Happy for you. Enjoy whatever little money you have on selling one condo…and burning it on expensive car. After a while you will be back at shoe box penny less. Tick tock when it last.

    • Ren 3 weeks ago

      I was born in Vancouver. Why tf should I be forced to leave my home in order to make room for millionaire “housewives” and “students” to buy multiple properties that sit empty?

    • Investor 2 weeks ago

      Dummy comment.

  • cto 3 weeks ago

    Mmr
    Absolutely agreed.
    if young Canadian’s can’t afford to live in Toronto,…they should stay in their own communities. believe it or not, there are good jobs there too. and if you pay attention to the stats, they are actually better jobs and pay similar salary.
    i’m thinking the trend will eventually catch on, that T.O stinks of the “overrated flatulence”.
    Trends happen,…then they change, but the debt lives on….
    ….Got to take the day off…sittin here in my sunroom reflecting…

  • CanadaSucks 3 weeks ago

    People will eventual leave Canada if the inflation problem in Canada is not addressed. Same as Australia. I think we are now seeing people leaving Australia. 1 US = 1.44 AUD. Australia is really close to a currency collapse as is Canada.

    I bought some from brake rotors from the US for my pickupr. Even with low Canadian currency and with 50 $ dollars shipping charge, I save 60$ CAD. Everything is too expensive.

    Immigration, lower interest rate, housing incentives, student temporary visa (700 000 per year) will not fix the problem. Real inflation is too high in Canada. I am talking about real inflation, not bull shit stats from Canadian gouverment.

    • MM 3 weeks ago

      If you think that inflation is too high today, wait until US and Canada start printing money to buy their own bonds. The fact that savers are losers has been known for decades. Weird to see someone who didn’t adjust expectations with reality.

  • Rana 3 weeks ago

    If house prices stays flat 10 years after that everything should be okay

  • Rana 3 weeks ago

    MM ur real practical life genius

  • C.o.V. 3 weeks ago

    @ Mmr….. Nah, i’ll be fine. The cash from the condo sits in my TSFA invested in ETF’s. The cash for the car came from me going to work and puttin it in the bank instead of blowing it on an overvalued single asset that is about to drop like it’s hot! Rent is paid for by the the rental return I receive from investing in a transport truck. …. this could go on forever, I’m sure, but I have better things to do… like counting the boats in the harbour. All the best.!

    • Mmr 3 weeks ago

      That is great. Annex house purchased for 600k in 2009 now going for 2.2 mil. Honestly I dont think it will go back to 600k any time soon. And the other properties I have from before financial crisis have even higher roi. I honestly dont know why ppl say it’s bad investment. Real estate always been wealth generator and will be all over the world in coming decades. Peace.

      • C.o.V. 3 weeks ago

        Ok, so you made some excellent choices in 2009 and earlier when it comes to your real estate holdings but do you think it would make sense for you to go all in at 2019 prices? Would you be able to make ends meet and cover your expenses from renting out your property after plowing in 2.2 million dollars, and would you even be able to afford it? Does real estate historically not closely track the rate of inflation? I believe you would be hard pressed to claim that it has done so in the last 10 to 15 years here in van and TO, or is it simply different this time?

      • vnm 3 weeks ago

        Don’t forget to mention your acumen was based on inheriting property from relatives who must be rolling in their grave at your pathetic conceit and entitled arrogance. My cat would have made just as much as you inheriting those properties. Do you have another purpose posting on BD other than to offend?

        • mmr 3 weeks ago

          Vnm..at least I am not homeless and on social well fare like you. after all looser like you lost everything in 93 crash…now whining like baby every day for last 30 years for a crash that never happened.

      • Investor 2 weeks ago

        Folks who act rich are the best – just like in the movies.

  • Frost 3 weeks ago

    Rent almost never ever goes down. Even if the housing was to magically correct itself (say the feds did something about money laundering) the rent would still continue to rise exponentially as the demand will only rise as people scramble to offload their properties that are heavily under water. Who in the right mind would buy an over assessed property with a massive property tax when it’s sale value will be much lower? Topple this with developers not wanting to build any rental units since the 1990’s, and we are in for a real treat. I foresee 4 people to a single bedroom with bunk beds just like it is now in places like London UK. Until the local government starts building it’s own rental high rises just like it did in the 90’s but stopped nothing good will come out of it. No amount of rent control or absence of it will fix this problem when there is a 6 month waiting list for a 2 bedroom in the North York area, never mind downtown core.

    • MM 3 weeks ago

      If government could build rentals for you in decent volume, you would have already seen it.
      Government uses taxpayer money, not to mention in very ineffective way. Taxpayers don’t have that much money to finance all that construction. That’s why rent control scrapping is equal to putting that responsibility on businesses that are more effective than government.
      Today programs like “affordable housing” are doing completely wrong thing. They are building some volumes, but only ~25% of money go towards construction cost, while remaining 75% go towards subsidizing somebody’s rent for following 25 years. Even having limited financing, government wastes .75c of each dollar into direction that doesn’t add any supply to the market.

      • Average Man 3 weeks ago

        The government absolutely could build rentals at a decent volume. They’ve opted not to. They did it for 40 years. What you need is a (fed and provincial) government willing to ratchet up taxes on the wealth and corporations (and you know what, eff it, the upper middle class, too) and a municipal government that can’t/won’t sell off to developers.

        • MM 3 weeks ago

          Of cause, always someone else should pay for your services.
          It creates an abomination. A thinking that you understand how system should work, while not actually understanding anything. And the only reality check is final lack of supply that you are facing, but it doesn’t change your mind.

          Government is already forcing to assign some volume in every new private project for the needs of affordable housing. You can guess how it will change the price per unit.
          https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/entry/toronto-affordable-housing-mandatory_ca_5ceda52ae4b0ae67105870fe

        • Frost 3 weeks ago

          A real crackdown on municipal government corruption with the local building mafia would be a big step in the affordability of large scale construction projects. Another reason for why the city or province no longer build any government rental units is because they are themselves are a bunch of land lords. Why would they under cut their own business? It is gross conflict of interest when you have landlords as government officials. Due you due diligence next election and do not vote for anyone with multiple properties (exc. vacation property).

  • FOMO 3 weeks ago

    The brain drain that impacted Canada for decades has reversed. Loads of high paying jobs coming back to Canada – thank you Donal Trump.

    No just technology jobs.

    Entertainment too. Just met a young writer from India – $2000 a week job – so $2k/month for rent is no problem he said.

    Netflix, HBO and Amazon all investing huge in content.

    Thanks.

  • Steve Threndyle 3 weeks ago

    There was a fascinating–and truly frightening–story in the USA HuffPo over the weekend about homelessness in Salt Lake City, a city that had actually become a poster child for eliminating/seriously reducing homelessness. It found that a rent increase of as little as $100 per month would send a family out onto the street. The new homeless have jobs, they are generally responsible (no drug or booze habits,( though probably not so great credit) and their lives have gone from precarious to, well, poverty, quite likely. And it’s a poverty they will find extremely challenging to climb out of as well.

  • Paul 3 weeks ago

    Mm mmr are quite obviously the same person. Poor language and grammar are hard to fake or disguise. All the abled commenters have stopped weighing in because of the trolls.

    Rent won’t keep going up and neither will house prices. To find “Value” in the system “They” will trigger a recession whether you want it or not. If you can weather not having a tenant for six months then good for you. I imagine that isn’t even close to the case for the majority of landlords in the city.

    And even if you think you have all your corners squared we are al connected and not quite the haves and have nots you’ve been imagining. Canada has an extremely small population compared to other countries. This makes us different and much more vulnerable.

    • MM 3 weeks ago

      The main difference between socialists and capitalists is…

      Capitalists think that businesses that CREATE valuable goods and services should be rewarded. For example, rental housing providers, creators of more supply that population needs, etc.

      Socialists think that solution for all problems is repossessing existing wealth and fairly spreading it across poor but very very fair people of the country.

      As a result, Canada as socialist country did a perfect job repossessing wealth and spreading it more or less equally. But when it comes to solving housing issues, socialists automatically say “Let’s take what they own and it will be a solution”. Unfortunately, housing crisis in Canada desperately needs CREATING new value (units). Repossessing existing units can only help for a very short timeframes, like BC today, not long term. And guess what, Canadian socialists have no idea how to incentivise businesses to CREATE that new value for population. Therefore, you get what you deserved, lack of supply.

      Keep hoping for your desired outcomes, but don’t forget to pay rent on time. And be grateful that at least some brave and very good people still provide you the roof under your head. Exactly that roof that you have no balls to create for your family.

      • WorldClassCitizen 3 weeks ago

        Wow. You are a piece of work man. You have clearly had everything handed to you on a silver platter because you don’t seem to know the first thing about real estate, finance or good business

      • Theo 3 weeks ago

        The difference between socialists and capitalists is socialists know rentiers have no clue what they’re talking about. Whereas capitalists pat rentiers on the back, and tell them they’re a part of the club, but really the know these suckers just provide interest payments and lower their taxes.

        Rentiers hate socialism, except when it provides low interest rates, mortgage liquidity and insurance, and mixed market support for housing. True capitalist economies see housing prices collapse regularly, as a part of market efficiencies.

      • Jeevan Jayenthiran 3 weeks ago

        I would agree with most of what you said regarding RE relating to the past 15 years. I’ve been wrong over that time and have been humbled by it. That being said, I also do think it’s fair to raise the issue of a lack of affordability. As you rightly said, it’s not allowed for tenants to put 6 people in a one bedroom if you’re they’re landlord. However, at the same time, if you block that, then you won’t have enough people to pay market rent. So it’s a double edged sword. Every market has a ceiling for rent.

        Now, if Toronto becomes solely a foreign capital/money laundering pad, then you’re right, prices will just keep going. However, I don’t think Canadians will accept that. We’ll eventually do what NZ did and ban foreign investment.

        Honestly, I agree with most of what you said, but we should have an open and frank discussion about it. Do we want housing to continue to be a commodity that is at the whim of foreign capital and thereby destroy housing as a dwelling for local citizens? Or, do we put safeguards in place to protect local citizens.

        I personally don’t think we should allow further foreign investment. Local owners have already profited wildly as your example in the Annex has shown. Not allowing foreign capital won’t tank your equity value and it will put a cap on the rampant annual year-over-year gains. It’ll allow the market to slowly re-balance to local incomes which is what housing should be. Then RE investments will return to what they have historically been, income generating assets. At the moment, they’re speculative investments for capital gains. Any new property purchased in the GTA is going to be CF negative with 20% down let alone 5%. So we’re in a dangerous position where a major debt implosion in China could cause their citizens to dump foreign assets in order to recapitalize themselves. I don’t want that risk hanging over us. That would crush your gains and many fellow Canadians.

        The trouble is people who already own homes like yourself don’t want to stop the music. You think it can continue forever and if it does, you don’t care about the human cost to our citizens because hey, what the heck, you’re getting rich in the process. I don’t hate you for that or think you’re an evil capitalist. I just think housing should be just that, a dwelling to live in, not an asset class like the stock market that’s only privy to the wealthy.

        For the record, I can afford a house now. I just choose not to take on mind numbing debt with our current political/trade situation. If this trade war goes sideways and we get stagflation, watch out. But if that clears, the world regains growth and we avoid a recession, I agree with you that housing will keep inflating due to dirt cheap interest rates.

        I feel for our bottom third. They’re screwed either way. Even if we have a housing meltdown they will likely lose their jobs and won’t be able to afford the discounted homes.

        Good luck to us all!

    • mmr 3 weeks ago

      Paul…all I hear is blah blah from you…if I can get a penny for housing market crash in last 15 years I will be billionaire by now…please tell us when it will happen…I am sitting with money to invest.

      • Paul 3 weeks ago

        Mmr

        Less than half of what you say is accurate or even based in reality. I’m not sure why you are on this blog since you just debate everything the articles say.

      • St 3 weeks ago

        July 23, mark-up your calendar

    • Investor 2 weeks ago

      Great post! Mm is indeed a troll.

  • Give me a break 3 weeks ago

    It’s Eminem not Mm you wanta be rapper bro! On a serious question how long do you have the lights on for growing clons for a pot crop.Thanks bro.

  • peter peter 3 weeks ago

    housing prices are going to drop any day now, i just jumped into the market so that’s a pretty good metric. There is a high correlation between my purchases and prices going down, going back to 2011 and the purchase of gold all the way to purchasing of bitcoin. I’m very well versed in buy high sell low

    • Average Man 3 weeks ago

      Oh man that’s bleak. Good luck out there buddy.

  • Joseph 3 weeks ago

    Daniel, about your article today. Slovenia and Portugal (especially Portugal) are easy to find on a map.

    Usually you have decent comments, but not sure about your comment today. I’d bet over 65+ percent of people who read your articles would locate either or both countries. Minimally Portugal.

    • carlton 3 weeks ago

      You get a gold star, how dare those assholes at BD doubt your geographical skills, you tell em!

      You serious? Canada has the least affordable housing and thats your comment …. sorry i couldn’t help myself.

      Well lets see how long the average household can use 15% of income for debt payments and maintain a debt to disposable income of 1.78.

      Sooner or later the banks are gonna want those H.E.L.O.C.S. paid back.

      • Frost 3 weeks ago

        Torontonians are reaching their credit limit, a lot of people are already tapped out with no more room. It’s a very sad situation, I believe the landlords already are aware of this however this does not mean they will take on a rational decision to halt rent increases. Like in Hong Kong and London UK, multiple people to a single bedroom and living room turned into a bedroom is on the Horizon for Toronto. The 1.78 debt to disposable income has been surpassed, it’s an old figure. We are closer to 1.84 right now (sorry I do not have a source, read it somewhere a while ago). We all need to pressure our local jurisdiction to built government housing, a simple email to your local rep is easy to do. Only together can we achieve this outcome for our community.

  • John 3 weeks ago

    Canadian real estate needs a reset. You have Toronto post-secondary graduates competing to work for free under internship programs. It’s not sustainable. Something has to give, hopefully a peaceful fall rather than civil unrest.

  • Jeevan 3 weeks ago

    Depends on who you ask. The people who bought in the last 5 years would be crushed. People who’ve been holding for ages will be fine. A reset will likely come with a major recession which means university grads likely won’t get jobs to even pay for the reset pricing.

    We’re screwed.

    People will be forced to move. Most employable university grads are going into STEM and will likely have the option to work remotely. It makes sense for employers since they won’t have to pay the wages required to live in Toronto.

  • Haha 3 weeks ago

    The Supply – Limited Toronto land.
    The Demand – Whole entire world’s investors and money launderers.

    You see, the supply and demand argument is a con used by developers.

  • RE EXPERT EXTRAORDINAIRE 2 weeks ago

    Just sitting on the sidelines losing years of equity and appreciation and trying to bring others down and waiting….. and waiting….. and waiting…….. getting older….. waiting……

    • Mathmagician 2 weeks ago

      You must have Dunning-Kruger for investments.

      Over the past 5 years:
      – Toronto real estate: +57.07%
      – NASDAQ 100: +87.03%

      But wait, that’s before currency depreciation of the Canadian peso. Currency adjusted.
      – Toronto real estate +57.07%
      – NASDAQ 100: +107.78%

      Leverage for Toronto real estate, once adjusted for fees, make the cost basis nearly identical. Real estate was easy, but not if you have the smallest clue what you’re doing as an investor.

      I’m a homeowner, but the difference between those two numbers could pay a lot of years of rent if need be. As long as people invest the delta between rent, they should be fine – if they aren’t doing better than you. The higher Canadian real estate goes, the worse the dollar performs, which makes USD equities an even better asset.

  • T 2 weeks ago

    Downtown Avg. price Per SQFT in USD.
    Hongkong $2858, London $2025, New York $1603, Singapore $1588, Shenzhen $1580, Paris $1578, Beijing $1455, Shanghai $1426, Zurich $1231, Geneva $1191, San Francisco $1175, Seoul $1167, Tokyo $1042, Sydeny $1042, Boston $1022, Munich $1000, Vancouver $770, Amsterdam $770, Milan $763, Oslo $737, Los Angeles $729, Copenhagen $722, Stockhom $708, Toronto $708

    Sigapore, Shenzhen, Seoul, Milan, Tokyo income are lower than Toronto, Toronto housing still Cheap.

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