Canadian real estate investment is suddenly booming again—but it’s not what it looks like. Statistics Canada (StatCan) data shows investment in building construction hit a record high in November, driven almost entirely by residential projects. Look closer, and the surge narrows fast—growth is concentrated in Ontario multi-family construction. These aren’t condos, but they’re largely corporate rentals chasing state-backed incentives. What looks like a boom on the surface is a very specific play that presents another headwind for property values.
Canadian Investment In Building Construction Hits A Record High
Canadian Investment In Building Construction.
Source: StatCan; Better Dwelling.
Canadian builders are suddenly pouring a lot more capital into construction. Seasonally adjusted investment surged 9.7% (+$2.16 billion) to $24.5 billion in November, up 16.6% from last year. The surge took the volume of investment from a 5-month low to a record high in just a month.
The gains aren’t just rising building costs either. Inflation-adjusted building investment saw 9.6% growth in November, and came in 13.0% higher than a year prior. The agency attributes the abrupt climb in part to a lagged response from October’s building permit surge. However, this is still a major surge that suggests October weakness was a temporary lull.
Canada’s Building Boom Is Mostly Corporate Rental Properties
Breaking down the data reveals the vast majority (71.8%) of the investment is in housing. Residential investment surged 13.3% (+$2.1 billion) to $17.6 billion in November. This was largely due to multi-unit building exploding 20.1% higher to $10.2 billion, while single-family construction climbed 5.0% higher to $7.4 billion. The growth was mostly concentrated in Ontario, which drove roughly two-thirds of the monthly growth—$1.4 billion.
Permit data suggests this is largely due to state-backed financing of corporate rental property developments. October’s data revealed that roughly ~75% of Ontario’s permits were for corporate rentals, while condos dropped sharply.
Canada’s Non-Residential Building Investment Remains Weak
Non-residential construction investment is where we learn the housing bubble is back in charge. Non-residential investment climbed a much more modest 1.4% in November to $6.9 billion, less than half the volume of residential. Commercial investment was the only segment to show substantial monthly growth (+2.7%), driven almost entirely by Ontario and Alberta. Meanwhile, institutional growth, like schools and hospitals, rose 0.4%. Industrial investment was even weaker, falling 0.5% in the month.
Ideally, a surge in building investment due to economic conditions would be seen across residential and non-residential activity. The weak growth in non-residential building investment immediately raises a red flag—a lot of cash is being sunk into building homes, but not the services people use or the places they work.
In other words, the record building construction strongly suggests state-backed growth. That’s a really big difference from a building boom from market demand driven by end-user consumption. This is more likely to be feeding at the taxpayer-funded trough, and presents another headwind for home sales. As we previously noted, Canada is attempting to offset its housing bubble with a rental bubble.
Credit where credit’s due—you called it. The unfortunate part is people don’t realize this isn’t about getting them cheaper rentals, it about reinforcing higher building costs by preventing deflation.
This is a lot of new construction… I wonder if it’ll help or hurt the market in the long run.
This is some interesting data, but I’m not sure how it’ll play out in the market. I guess we’ll have to wait and see.
I don’t see what all the fuss is about. The economy has always been a roller coaster. You just have to ride it out.
Shoulda bought when “rates were high.” They were 14% in the early 80s and guess what? I did it. You didn’t, now you’re looking at renting for the rest of your lives.
Presenting The Elbows Up Residences, coming soon from Brookfield. ,
lol. I know it’s a joke, but is it really?
It will definatrly continue to have a negative impact on condo maintenance costs
There was a reason reits pushed back on rental caps. So hello condo owner dwellers are taxpayers too. How many more slaps I. The face is this group going to get noting the excuses to carving out cond Murbs many for eco retrofits and owner dwellers do not have write offs landlords do
Correct. There’s 3 classes of landlords: mom & pop, speculords, and corporate. Mom & pop are a crap shoot on whether you get screwed, but being real people they don’t have the resources to have the system gamed like corporate-owned landlords.
If Realtors are so powerful, how are they letting this happen? Aren’t we heading towards the market being wrecked ahead for ownership?
You will own nothing and you’ll be happy. (Happy or deceased?)
Not sure what I’m missing. Isn’t this all great news? Residential investment is still alive supporting the construction industry, we will get so much rental supply both rents will get much lower (and maybe even reasonable!), when the condo market picks back up it will be built only for end users as the rents won’t support investment properties so Unit sizes more reasonable while we are almost at the time that boomers are going into their 80s and start selling their homes.
BE MILLIONAIRE RENTERS – TURN YOUR MONEY OVER IN MULTIPLE MARKETS EVERY DAY FROM A CHEAP RENTAL.
SEEK THE ABSOLUTE LOWEST PRICES ON EVERYTHING YOU BUY