Canada

Canada’s Largest Real Estate Markets Are Still Seeing Large Immigration Declines

Canada’s largest real estate markets partially attribute fast climbing prices to immigration. However, with a significant decline in permanent residents, prices have yet to slow down. Government of Canada (GoC) data shows new permanent residents admitted to major markets dropped in June. The decline was most notable in Toronto and Montreal, where numbers are down more than a third. Vancouver, while seeing substantial declines, isn’t falling nearly as fast.

Toronto Sees New Permanent Residents Drop 41%

Toronto real estate is seeing a big slow down for immigration. Only 7,135 permanent residents arrived in June, down 41.6% from last year. Year-to-date the number reached 61,430 permanent residents, down 24.3% compared to last year. There’s fewer new permanent residents, but the spike in the first-two months of the year softened total declines.

New Canadian Permanent Residents By Market

The monthly number of permanent residents admitted to Canada, by intended market to reside.

Source: Government of Canada, Better Dwelling.

Vancouver Sees New Permanent Residents Drop 19%

Vancouver is seeing a drop in new permanent residents, but the region is doing better than Toronto. There were 3,190 permanent residents that arrived in June, down 19.2% from last year. Year-to-date 22,575 permanent residents arrived in the region, down 9.5% compared to last year. Recent declines are substantial, but about half of Toronto’s rate, and a third of Montreal.

New Canadian Permanent Residents By Market Change

The percent change of permanent residents admitted to Canada per month, by intended market to reside.

Source: Government of Canada, Better Dwelling.

Montreal Sees New Permanent Residents Drop Over 63%

Montreal’s drop in new permanent residents follows declines last year as well. There were 1,205 permanent residents that arrived in Montreal in June, down 63.5% from last year. Year-to-date that brings the number to 15,495 permanent residents, down 31.2% compared to last year. This is one of the biggest drops of any major real estate market. Surprising, considering this year’s decline also follows one last year, when there was no pandemic.

Canada’s largest real estate markets continue to see new permanent residents decline. The drops are a smaller ratio than at the beginning of the pandemic. However, June is also when new arrivals tend to peak – so the drop is bigger as a number. The declines have yet to relieve pressure on rising prices, indicating recent climbs have little to do with fundamentals, and a lot more to do with exuberance.

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18 Comments

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  • LT 2 months ago

    Unless your dream is to live in Canada, there’s not a lot of reason to rush and move into a country where you don’t know if you’re going to be first to lose your job.

    • Jin 2 months ago

      There’s also a lot of money to be made overseas, with stimulus programs. This isn’t a recession, it’s a handout for people that want to make money.

    • alvi 2 months ago

      Immigrants are less risk verse just by the very nature of immigrating.From what I can see, many are highly skilled and bring substantial economic means,they don’t come to Canada to work in a fast food outlet which is the last type of worker are country currently requires

      • Ian 2 months ago

        That’s actually a myth used by people trying to say we don’t need more wealthy immigrants. Canada still attracts more immigrants that are low income than high skilled. It’s still exploiting poor people from foreign countries, but locals aren’t feeling much better about the situation like they used to.

        Fewer than one in ten immigrants came to Canada due to being high skilled, and the median income is substantially lower than the average.

        https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=4310001001

        • alvi 2 months ago

          Interesting take but if your right than immigrants are not responsible for rising house prices?

          • bb 2 months ago

            foreign money is far bigger factor than num of immigrants

  • Ed Kolop 2 months ago

    Does Canada keep track of retention? Like people that move back after a stint? I imagine a lot of PRs are back home, and want to be with their family during the pandemic.

    • idan 2 months ago

      Enjoy.
      https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/CAN/canada/net-migration

      The current net migration rate for Canada in 2020 is 6.375 per 1000 population, a 1.44% decline from 2019.
      The net migration rate for Canada in 2019 was 6.468 per 1000 population, a 1.43% decline from 2018.
      The net migration rate for Canada in 2018 was 6.562 per 1000 population, a 1.55% decline from 2017.
      The net migration rate for Canada in 2017 was 6.665 per 1000 population, a 1.52% decline from 2016.

      • Jason Chau 2 months ago

        You know you linked to a dataset using forecast estimates, and not actual estimates. The government hasn’t revised any population forecast data, because they can’t forecast without knowing when the pandemic is over.

        • alvi 2 months ago

          Good point it did seem the 2020 number was rather high given what is happening in the world

      • Kolf 2 months ago

        Migration is not immigration, please understand the difference.

  • straw walker 2 months ago

    Immigration leads to high density living , lower wages and eventually a lower standard of living.

    • A;vi 2 months ago

      Yeah lower density leads to higher wages then I guess the mass migration from the farm to urban centers was a mistake. let us all move back to farm and agglomeration economies be damned!

    • Kolf 2 months ago

      That is true if all immigrants are low iq, but many immigrants are very talented. With high talent immigration they create higher output and more technical advancement which leads to higher wages for all in the long run.

    • dogwhistle 2 months ago

      Lack of education, of motivation and productivity, is the main issue.

      The ‘Canadian experience’ excuse is a protectionist, racist farce.

      Experience of what? Double-doubles and taking an hour to do what elsewhere takes 10 minutes?

      Please

  • Fight Back 2 months ago

    Real story, I know someone who just graduated and obviously cant find a job. She went back to China to be with family and be in a safer place for pandemic. There are many thousands of immigrants leaving Canada, especially with the trade war we are going to see continue decline in immigration for years to come.

    Canada needs to let this housing bubble pop, if you are not a speculator you dont really care if home prices went down. Only speculators are hurt, you have to wonder why is the government protecting speculators?? Could it be they are speculators themselves?

  • Andreas 2 months ago

    We moved to Canada with enthusiasm, but after three years we worked hard and despite a master’s degree, we’ll probably move back to our country. The housing market is crazy and unaffordable with our wages. Immigrants in Canada are asked to improve their Canadian experience, but good jobs with good salaries are just for Canadian born people. There’s no way I’m growing my family in this system, and despite my high education, wages offered are miserable for this housing madness. No thanks

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