Canada’s economy is losing ground—and its population is paying the price. New Statistics Canada (Stat Can) data reveals GDP per capita fell 1.4% in 2024, but the hit wasn’t evenly distributed. A provincial breakdown reveals stark disparities: few regions are thriving, while most are regressing—some back to 2020 levels. If quality of life continues to erode post-pandemic “growth,” how severe will the pain be from the upcoming trade war recession?
Why Canadian GDP Per Capita Is Important, Especially Now
Gross domestic product (GDP) is one of the most important indicators for an economy. It’s the total value of goods and services produced in a country, giving insight into the direction a country is heading. However, aggregate data only tells us how big an economy is, not whether the improvements are from real income or a country is simply adding more workers. In the latter case, the quality of life may be eroding for each worker and the economy is becoming less efficient, meaning the aggregate GDP is only good for d*ck measuring contests between world leaders.
GDP per capita helps mitigate some of those issues by adjusting the aggregate to the population size. This tells us more about the average person, providing insight into their productivity, income, and consumption. Strong GDP per capita growth is strongly correlated with quality of life improvements, with better healthcare, education, and infrastructure often seen. An erosion typically sees those factors reverse.
Canadian GDP Per Capita Slides, But 4 Provinces Buck The Trend
Annual change of GDP per capita for Canadian provinces in 2024. In percentage points.
Source: Statistics Canada; Better Dwelling.
Is Canada’s economy getting worse? Not everywhere. National GDP per capita growth in 2024 (-1.4%) contracted, but four provinces bucked the trend. Those provinces were PEI (+1.6%), Newfoundland (+1.5%), Nova Scotia (+1.2%), and Saskatechwan (+1.13%). Encouraging, but it’s worth noting that all but one of these provinces is below the national average. Despite growth, PEI and Nova Scotia still rank near the bottom of the country for per capita GDP.
Saskatchewan is a little different. Ranking second-highest in the country, it has an average GDP per capita of $64,586. It’s second only to Alberta ($71,639), but just ahead of BC ($54,748).
Few Canadian Provinces Can Afford Per Capita GDP Falling Further
Canadian provincial GDP per capita in 2024. In Canadian dollars.
Source: Statistics Canada; Better Dwelling.
All other provinces have seen per capita contractions, with some regions much worse than others. The sharpest drop was in Manitoba (-1.3%), which is now back to where it was in 2021. It was followed by Alberta (-1.2%), though the province still leads the national average by a large margin (+36%). It’s probably fine.
Tied for the third largest declines are the housing bubble twins—BC (-1.0%) and Ontario (-1.0%). Both regions managed to make smaller declines than seen a year prior, but the losses still pile up. Both regions are at their lowest levels since 2020, with their economies partying like they’re in the midst of a pandemic.
Not all provinces have been hit by the per capita downturn, and some can afford to take a hit more than others. However, it’s worth emphasizing the data is between two major economic headwinds—the pandemic and the trade war. If an erosion in real income and quality of life was the economy during its peak recovery, how bad will it get when the economy is facing an actual recession?
Which provinces are best positioned to weather a recession? Drop your thoughts below.
Now that the NDP is running the show again there will be amazing economic advances .
Man you are the funniest person on the internet.
Our new PM cares about one thing, the fake climate hoax. He will starve his mother to poverty stricken death to “save the planet”.
The boomers screwed Canada, again.
You’re the boomer trying to screw canada, we need actual climate action, you don’t care about this country, this land, our water our air or our future.
Tell that to china/india, Canada has the cleanest air in the world. there was a study done on this recently look it up.
Canadians are being bankrupted by Carney’s green policies. He has been a failure since he started advising Trudeau.
Canada needs to increase immigration to at least 5million a year.
Especially, more international students are needed to drive the Tim Horton’s economy.
THIS is Canada’s time.
#ElbowsUp
Oh yes the whole year (if not 10y) of economic downturn and the culprit for low GDP per capita is the Trade war… Right…
Is Quebec really a part of Canada!
None of these issues matter. We need serious investment from the US for on-shoring and the way the cold economic war is going, our national GDP will fall even further. This is what happens when the country’s biggest GDP providers are real estate and mortgages
Nobody cares about facts they are all brainwashed with fear and the liberals were spreading lies based on fear. Canadians like to brag they are so smart well guess what you are not that smart you elected them for a fourth term a government that’s corrupt and only cares about themselves. Our kids will starve to death and never have life because a cult is running Canada.
GDP Per Capita is as overrated as an indicator as GDP itself. Its a blunt measure, never to be taken on its own. Context matters.
We had an extreme level of immigration for a period. While the people here before that have seen stable or increasing incomes, the large amount of new folks have a period of very low income.
In the US the per capita GDP is also affected by atypical outliers but in the other direction. The mega rich. The vast majority of folks down there are doing about the same as the vast majority of folks up here. At least this is what a more thorough and balanced review of the statistics suggests.
First tier of the Baby Boom 1946-54, showed a greater dependency of televised misinformation due to Broadcast of CBC and affiliates being their main source of what’s what!
Second tier of Baby Boomers 1955-64, had more involvement with online research platforms to give a better understanding of what would be best for Canada and Canadians. YouTube independent reporters, had better responses to the ongoing matters at hand, giving us better detailed explanation of what each party offered.
My opinion, being in the second tier of boomers, was to side for the Conservative Party, as well as 100s of thousands of other boomers in the second tier. A major of the first tier boomers had life in place, while second tier boomers had more of a struggle with changing economics of the period, and ongoing.
So saying to blaming the boomers, is like saying you need Biased Mainstream Media.
I don’t have the inclination to check statistics Canada, but the stats as presented do not make sense. How can the biggest decline by province be 1.3%, Manitoba, and the national decline be 1.4%? It’s not possible. Please correct the article.
Just looked it up after seeing your comment. Definitely 1.4% for Canada. Looks like an edge case calculation:
– Ontario + Quebec are amongst the low end and weight the whole index down.
– the highest earning provinces (Alberta) plummeted and brings the top end distribution down
What province is MN? Minnesota?
to be fair no one knows where manitoba is, all tucked away, um, down there?
Them liberals party has to be blamed. Bringing so called low wages workers from abroad while the employment for Canadians is above 13% Shame on them dumbs politian like Treadue than God is gone. Joining USA is the best choice. We export 85% of our products to them and they owned 45 % of our economy here in Canada. Figure!
The major reason why our country is failing is due to 10 years of anti growth policies. Thank you Liberals and thank you liberal voters for voting back for more of the same, unless they steal and implement all.of the conservative ideas and policies…kinda already started didnt he.
The two provinces that will be able to weather a recession is Saskatchewan and Alberta. If Ontario and Quebec can’t make bank with a low 0.70’s dollar against the US, there in serious trouble. Both BC and Manitoba will be survivable in a recession, but things will be more than challenging. The party is definitely over, the after party is starting to thin out now. Oil prices at $30 to $40 USD per Barrel WTI, most Canadian’s will struggle to buy any new items that allow them to transition into the new zero carbon initiatives. The energy industry will be forced to run lean for at least 10 years, after the war in Ukraine ends. Canada will be forced to add much much more to it’s already $1.4 Trillion National debt, just to survive.
May be we should pay attention to the science: