Canada

Can You Tell If These Central Bank Quotes Are About Canadian Real Estate in 2018, or The US Before The Great Recession?

The real estate industry listens very closely to central bankers, and why wouldn’t they? Monetary policy heavily influences real estate prices. However, if you really listen to the words they use, you start to realize that they all sound the same… almost all of the time, regardless of what the economy is doing.

Half joking, I tweeted a quote and polled when and who said it: The Bank of Canada in 2018, or the US Federal Reserve right before the Great Recession. I thought it was a little murky, but my Twitter feed targets a small but highly technical financial crowd – I figured most would get it. Surprisingly, the poll was split 50-50. Half of people that answered couldn’t tell the difference between a quote on Canadian real estate in 2018 or the US in 2006.

We figured we would give our readers a similar quick quiz. Can you tell if the following quotes are from the Bank of Canada’s Governor Poloz on Canadian real estate (2017-2018), or the US Federal Reserve’s Bernanke (2005 – 2007), right before the worst recession in history. Trust us, this quiz is going to be as informative as any data point we could give you.


1.
"House prices have risen by nearly 25 percent over the past two years. Although speculative activity has increased in some areas, at a national level these price increases largely reflect strong economic fundamentals."
2.
"A year-and-a-half ago we had the changes in the [location redacted] market and there was an initial effect and then a bounce back, and that just shows you that Mother Nature is still there – that the fundamentals for housing remain quite strong."
3.
"Housing markets are cooling a bit. Our expectation is that the decline in activity or the slowing in activity will be moderate, that house prices will probably continue to rise."
4.
"I don't think that Chinese ownership of [redacted] assets is so large as to put our country at risk economically."
5.
"Today we have more room to maneuver in that respect than we did a year ago which is good and I think with the economy in such good health as it is we can be confident that we continue to build on that."

Photo: Bank of Canada.

27 Comments

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  • Mike 2 years ago

    Damn. That’s the only quiz that made me less sure about my housing opinions. I’m going to need to do one that tells me which Spice Girl I am next. lol

  • Bluetheimpala 2 years ago

    Don’t feed the trolls people. Don’t get them wet…or is that mogwai? BD4L.

    • Werry 2 years ago

      You always feed the mogwai, that’s how they get those cool wings. Also, which side is trolling? I’m sure bulls think bears are trolling, and vice versa. 😂

  • Obi 2 years ago

    Well that was scary.

  • Tim2 2 years ago

    Great piece!

    I failed =(

    • Ahmed 2 years ago

      Yes!

      I also failed. Passing this should be a requirement for high-ratio mortgages.

  • Dusty Hill 2 years ago

    You Got 5 Out Of 5 Quotes Correct. You Really Know Your Shit.

  • Mark 2 years ago

    lol it’s broken… it says I got 2 out of 5 quotes correct, but when you look at the answers I actually got 4/5

    • Jay 2 years ago

      ya me too, i got 4/5 and it said u got 2 out of 5, but I really know my shit. haha woot.

  • Andrew 2 years ago

    0 out of 5 lmao. In fairness, I was trying to answer as if I didn’t know the premise was to trick me.

  • ahchi168 2 years ago

    it is not easy. I got all answers wrong.

  • Rick Abrams 2 years ago

    The real answer is that all quotes were applicable to the US market and to the Canadian market whether or not anyone actually said them. The fact which virtually no one wants to admit is that massive fraud crashed the US housing market. It was Accounting Control Fraud which was enabled by the legalizing of Credit Default Swaps (CDSs).

    I suggest that Canada not compare its market today with the US market in 2007 (unless it has massive fraud). Rather, I suggest that Canada focus on the long term economic impacts of the New Urbanism whose origins greatly pre-dates the US Crash. Our crash caused the New Urbanism housing crash to happen years early due to the massive Wall Street fraud. Canada appears to be merely experiencing the adverse impacts of the New Urbanism which has infected Australia, London, and Canada.

    • Trader Jim 2 years ago

      Oh, there’s massive fraud. The government has been just brushing it under the rug, and saying it was “misfilings” and “errors in document submissions.”

      Canada has no fraud, because a fifth of the country doesn’t consider it fraud to lie about your income. There’s a whole city just outside of Toronto, known around the world for doctoring mortgage documents.

      Canada officially has no interest only loans, but 8% of originations in Ontario might be just that.

      Canada officially has no zero down, but there’s tons of “cash back” programs, where a prime lender will give you your deposit back, add the loan to your mortgage, and charge a near subprime rate.

      Most people are unaware that Canada’s primary industry is banking. The second that boat wobbles, the government needs to reassure investors. Canada’s market is exactly like the US in 2006, except the coverup is being run by the government.

    • MM 2 years ago

      I’m 100% certain that BC has fraud after looking into getting a mortgage myself and speaking with the guys doing the loans.

      • Bluetheimpala 2 years ago

        it is a shit slurry out there. But at least they have nicer weather.

  • foad 2 years ago

    BOK, Cut interest rate and pump up housing price again and show growth , #fake economy.

  • MM 2 years ago

    4/5! That Mother Nature quote was easy because I remember thinking that was such a weird thing to say!

  • 6ix 2 years ago

    Through arranged cash back program people are taking 105% mortgage.

    I.e furnishing is also covered.

    Sad part is we are going to pay the liability through taxes

  • Laura 2 years ago

    Gosh- does this mean we’re going to have another 2-3 years of ridiculous housing prices before the inevitable crash? I thought it was around the corner!

  • Justin Thyme 2 years ago

    The Americans were concerned about Chinese ownership of real estate?

    • Knotmi Realnm 2 years ago

      Yeah, I didn’t know this either. I tried to bid on a property in Western Toronto suburb that came on the market Friday at 5pm, but someone in Beijing purchased conditional by 9 am Saturday. How is it legal for someone from another country to have equal rights to purchase in good school districts? What is all this blubbering about Canada citizenship when you just need a house to get free healthcare and education. That alone is a good $200,000 discount for Chinese. This country is run by a bunch of potatos.

    • Ban Foreign Ownership 2 years ago

      Yup. Chinese buyers represented 12% of foreign buyers in the US around then, but in 2006-2010 they were concentrated in certain regions, like Southern California. This LA Times article from around then has agents saying 25% of their sales were going to Chinese buyers.

      http://www.latimes.com/business/realestate/la-re-international23mar23-story.html

      • Justin Thyme 2 years ago

        It would help if you actually READ the article. It was AFTER the crash, and it referred to Canadians (yes, we are foreign buyers for US real estate) and Europeans picking up the fire-sale prices.

        • Ban Foreign Ownership 2 years ago

          It would help if you weren’t dumb as mud and didn’t need hand holding through the whole explanation. That article is from 2008, with their client base already established. Prices bottomed in 2012.

          Now here’s where you dig for hours to come up with a way to save your ego, because rude little snots like you with shitty attitudes can’t be wrong.

          • Justin Thyme 2 years ago

            Stupid, stupid, stupid.

            I KNOW better than to respond to click bait troll droppings.

            BFO stands for something else, I see.

    • Alistair McLaughlin 2 years ago

      The quote says “assets”, not houses. Likely Greenspan was responding to a question in Congress about Chinese purchases of American firms.

      • Justin Thyme 2 years ago

        Looking back at the quote, you are correct. By the context, I had assumed it was referring to real estate assets, and residential real estate in particular.

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