The Canadian real estate industry may focus on rate decisions, but the mortgage industry is watching bond markets. The Government of Canada’s (GoC) 5-year bond yield—a key benchmark for fixed-rate mortgages—has surged in recent weeks, pushing borrowing costs higher instead of providing relief. The move reflects rapid market repricing, driven by stronger economic data and […]
Canada’s national statistics agency quietly dropped a Christmas gift for analysts this morning. Statistics Canada (StatCan) data shows household debt-to-income (DTI) climbed sharply in Q3—but the real insight was a bonus DTI normalized for US comparison. The agency notes that American households saw their ratio peak in 2007, while Canadians kept piling on debt until […]
Canada’s central bank delivered a harsh reality check for real estate bulls hoping for cuts. The Bank of Canada (BoC) held its overnight rate at 2.25% this morning, citing recent revisions to economic data that show the economy is doing better than expected. However, they view the broader economy not as a typical business cycle […]
Canadian real estate investors may be a bigger problem than even the most aggressive assumptions. New data from Statistics Canada’s (StatCan) Canadian Housing Statistics Program (CHSP) shows investors captured a greater share of the total housing stock in most provinces in 2023. That isn’t surprising, but the math for that to work out is: Investors […]
One of Canada’s biggest drivers of inflation is overstated, according to a Big Six bank. A new report from CIBC Economics warns investors that official CPI rent inflation overstates growth. This implies the Bank of Canada (BoC) may be keeping rates higher than needed. It’s a disturbing argument with one problem: It’s not clear if […]
The Canadian labour market was booming last month—at least when it came to statistical modeling. Statistics Canada’s (StatCan) latest Labour Force Survey (LFS) shows 5-digit job growth and a plunging unemployment rate in November. Reality is a little different, as most benefits only exist in the statistical model. The gap between headline reports in the […]
The Canadian Parliament’s non-partisan, independent budget watchdog just gave a reality check for the latest housing plan. The Parliamentary Budget Officer’s (PBO) latest report warns despite ballooning deficits, Ottawa is slated to slash funding for housing by 56% in the coming years. They expressed direct concern for the CMHC, where planned cuts will impact its […]
Canadian real estate investors (and the affordability advocates who hate them) may want to take note: soaring rents are no longer being driven by big cities. Statistics Canada (StatCan) data shows one-bedroom rents in Q3 2025 are falling in high-cost markets like Toronto and Vancouver, while cheaper cities are seeing the fastest growth. It’s a […]
The Canadian economy expanded faster than analyst forecasts, but it isn’t what it seems. Statistics Canada (StatCan) data shows Gross Domestic Product (GDP) saw unusually large growth in Q3. It sounds like good news, but diving into the data revealed the surge was entirely due to superficial accounting mechanics. Compounding the problem further—the agency warns […]
Canadian Parliament is floating longer mortgages as a housing fix—but does it actually improve affordability? An update from the Parliamentary Budget Officer (PBO) finds that stretching amortizations from 25 to 40 years lowers monthly payments, but borrowers end up paying 75% more in interest. The non-partisan agency also warns the analysis doesn’t account for broader […]
