Toronto real estate demand faces a new headwind—a shrinking population. Statistics Canada (StatCan) estimates the population of the Toronto CMA contracted in 2025, marking the only non-pandemic contraction in the region’s history. Young adults are fleeing to other provinces (or countries), leaving fewer families behind. The result is a stark demographic flip, where 1 in 6 residents are seniors, outnumbering children. Though we give the kids 1:1 odds in a fight.
Toronto Population Falls As Young Adults Seek Greener Pastures
Greater Toronto has never seen its population stagnate like this, ex-pandemic. The population estimate slipped to 7.11 million in 2025, down a minor 0.01% (-1k people). Not much, but it’s the first decline in the region’s history and likely to accelerate as StatCan estimates are taken as of July 1st of each year. Immigration changes didn’t create a national pullback until Q3, meaning the sharpest drop is already here—but won’t be reported until next year.
However, slowing immigration isn’t the only reason behind the region’s pullback. Interprovincial migration data shows a massive outflow of young adults from the province to more affordable regions, such as Alberta and Nova Scotia. This trend is further reinforced by Toronto’s aging population and composition shift.
Toronto’s Aging Like It Works 5 Side Hustles to Pay The Rent
Greater Toronto is aging faster than a young professional who just spent over a half-mill on a 300 sq. ft. apartment. The region’s average age surged 0.4 points to 40.8 years old, marking the sharpest climb in modern records (and likely forever) to set a record high. Measured by the median, the region didn’t fare much better, climbing 0.6 points to 38.8 years, the highest since 2022 and 0.1 points higher than 2019.
Toronto Sees Working-Age Population Shrink, Seniors Boom
Toronto CMA: Change in working-age population (15 to 64), number of people.
Source: Statistics Canada; Better Dwelling.
The minor decline conceals a much bigger problem: a demographic shift. The working-age population (15 to 64) fell 0.85% (-42.5k people) to 4.94 million in 2025, in contrast to the 0.42% national growth. The setup for this trend going forward is even more disturbing.
A key ratio when analyzing an economy is the ratio of new workforce entrants (age 20 to 24) to exits (60 to 64). Entrants, who are soon-to-be first-time home buyers and about to enter family formation years—need to outpace lost experience and maintain productivity. When they don’t, it signals economic drag ahead.
Entrants fell 4.6% (-25.6k) to 557.6k in 2025, while exits climbed 1.4% (+5.9k) to 439.7k. Even with temporary residents inflating the near-term count, the ratio is approaching critical levels.
The interprovincial migration trend worsens the issue. Early career adults are highly mobile, and more likely to move to establish a family or chase better career opportunities. Older workers are, well, too old for that sh*t, and more likely to go down with the ship.
More Seniors Than Kids? Toronto Faces An Economic & Demographic Disaster
Toronto CMA: Population of children (0-14) vs seniors (65+).
Source: Statistics Canada; Better Dwelling.
The 14-and-under population fell 0.4% (-3.6k) to 987.5k in 2025, sitting 2.3% (-23.2k) below the pre-pandemic 2019 high. Despite a slight recovery in the last year and the region’s general boom, the population of children this age is roughly the same as it was in 2011.
Meanwhile, the 65+ population surged 4.0% (+45.1k) to 1.18 million, representing over 1 in 6 residents. Now at 1.2 seniors per child, Toronto has seen its senior population surge 14.1% (+146.4k) since 2021. Returning to the destabilizing immigration targets may be the first reaction of many policymakers, but it only temporarily improves the short-term optics while creating a bigger dependency issue.
Unless immigrants are orphans planning to toil in the data mines with no hopes or dreams of a family, they create their own dependencies. They’ll see the same opportunities and problems driving existing young adults away, and migrate as well.
In the meantime, the region faces a growing fiscal and economic drag as its tax base and labour force shrink relative to costs and dependencies. Correcting course right now would still take decades to crawl out of this dependency deficit, which doesn’t speak well for the region’s real estate market anytime soon.
Don’t even need the numbers to see there’s no kids, people don’t have money. The malls are dead, movie theaters are shutting down, and all of the shops evicted by up zoning to sit on still sit empty.
Have you spoken to anyone over 40?
Their take is always, even if you don’t ask for it, ramming down the explication that kids are on their phones and shop online.
They’re completely oblivious to the fact kids aren’t being conservative with their cash because they really like not seeing their friends, they can’t afford to go out and do anything.
Long, protracted periods of low productivity and overpriced housing have consequences … demographically speaking. There is no easy fix available.
The wave of people moving to Nova Scotia includes a wave of people who are leaving Nova Scotia. Outside of Halifax, small town minds are toxic.
It’s the circle of life. People from Toronto moved to Nova Scotia for affordability, and people from Nova Scotia moved to Alberta/BC for jobs.
Once the job market takes a dump and they have to find a job in NS, they’ll realize those big city paycheques that go far in NS don’t exist there.
I married one and disagree with you 100% and this region is where historically real, true blue Canadians used to live. This beautiful heritage is disappearing and it is starting to look like Bangladesh in some of my favorite Nova Scotia towns and cities. A lot like Brampton, Surrey and Abbotsford. Just go to any fast food joint or “Canadian” Tire !
Killed the golden goose. Do Vancouver next, I can look up the numbers but I can’t create the jokes to make it hit. haha. Best of luck friends.
I will bet anything that the births of 90+% of the new residents are non-caucasian offspring of parents not born in Canada. Your typical parents of old cannot financially afford to have kids as most hold down full time jobs and barely get by. The ones having kids are welfare cheats gaming the system with their baby factories. I have seen this with my own eyes. Canada treats these undesirables better than it’s Canadian born citizens.
We are reaping what what both Trudeaus’ visions have sowed..
News flash, the population has not had the correct replacement birth rate in over 25+ years. They warned of this back in the 1990’s that if Canadians didn’t start having more children, the population would be unbalanced in favour of older adults. No immigration or fancy stats required to know that. Also, when two working people can barely afford to pay for shelter, groceries, and transportation – why would you want to have 2 or more kids? Welcome to end-stage capitalism…it isn’t “coming in a few years” it has already arrived. When you build an economy dependant on consumption and then raise the price of every product and service to the point where it is all about “what price can I charge that the consumer will tolerate?” economics (maximum profit), eventually your cash cows run out of disposable income. Then they run out of credit. Then you are in a mess. Coming soon to a province or territory near you.
Well established trend that shows a clear switch in 2020? Okay, Boomer.
The dark darker shade of pale is what this country is turning into. The culture Canada has been destroyed and there’s no saving it. The only chance you have is to learn Mandarin Punjabi or some African language and you’ll come up ahead. Look around it doesn’t look like Canada anymore in most areas of Canada even Alberta is looking a little dark these days. The town I live in they’re putting in a new mosque right in a new subdivision I bet you the non-muslims are going to really love it when the call to prayer happens early in the morning earlier than the roosters get up. Right smack dab in the middle of a residential subdivision.
How can you understand the present if you won’t acknowledge the past? Typical…just like all the fools that thought real estate prices would go up forever while ignoring the fundamentals that created the problem in the first place i.e. 2008. It’s like having a party and all the young people at the party decide to leave for another party and someone shows up and says: “wow, the only people who came to the party are old people.” Boomers have been around long enough to see what is really going on. Old people are not “migrating to Toronto.” I left in 2017…and so did a lot of my friends.
I have a kid, lived in Toronto for 10 years as a young professional, and can tell you the city has become a craphole. It’s unsafe, dirty, and expensive. There is no reason I’d go in there if I didn’t have to. Demographic shifts are underscored by more than age.
Canada’s aging population is a well-established long-term trend. The surge you’re reporting in the senior population is the thick of the Boomer population hitting the senior years. This is not unique to Toronto (or even Canada for that matter). How does this stack up to other large urban centres in Canada?
Also, one data point is not a trend (re: working age pop chart), particularly when it is preceded by two periods of much higher reverse results. Moreover, people are working much longer – 65+ is an antiquated metric for working age.
nah, it’s an Eastern Canada thing. There’s a reason everyone is moving West (Vancouver/Victoria) aside.
ALL OF CANADA IS A REAL ESTATE DUMPSTER FIRE
NEW LUXURY USA HOUSES COST 400K OR LESS