Canadians fleeing major cities was supposed to be a temporary trend, but it’s accelerating at a breakneck speed. Net interprovincial migration, the balance of people who arrived and left provinces, accelerated in 2023. Economists at BMO are warning this trend was unusually strong in the country’s traditional economic hubs—Toronto, Vancouver, and Montreal. The bank attributes the unusually rapid flight to a number of reasons, but ultimately the biggest one is affordability. That issue is about to reshape these cities, and Canada’s economy.
Canadians Are Fleeing The Country’s Largest Cities
Canadians are fleeing major cities at an usually rapid rate. Net interprovincial migration out of Toronto, Montreal, and Vancouver hit over 130k people in the latest estimates. “…[this suggests] that the early pandemic move out has only gathered momentum,” explained Robert Kavcic, a senior economist at BMO.
Source: BMO Capital Markets; Statistics Canada.
The above data shows a clear acceleration once the pandemic hit and households fled to (literally) greener pastures. However, it also shows this trend began to gain steam well before this. What the heck is happening?
Kavcic attributes it to a number of factors combining for a perfect storm. One of the largest being the demographic of people in these regions. Millennials are approaching the age where they’re faced with the decision of starting a family or not. Those who do, need fairly deep pockets if they’re going to try and stay in the city.
That’s always been the case, but it’s amplified in an unusually large way these days. “…of course, [the trend is] magnified by challenging affordability conditions in the big-city cores, with many families choosing better affordability and more space elsewhere,” he explains.
He adds the point that greater workplace flexibility is also contributing to the freedom to actually live further away from these cities.
Canada’s Largest Cities Are Too Unaffordable For Young Adults
Ultimately the whole issue boils down to affordability. Previous generations may have also left the city, but were generally anchored to the Greater Region. That’s no longer the case, since home prices in most of Southern Ontario have increased so rapidly.
“We’ve long argued that one way to ease those strains is to make it easier to get people in and out of the big-city cores. Transportation infrastructure is one example, but of course we’ve lacked on that front, and it’s a long-term solution that requires action well in advance,” warns Kavcic.
None of these cities risk declining populations since temporary immigration has boosted the numbers. However, these major cities are trading long-term residents for temporary ones. It may not raise red flags to policymakers who tend to only look at higher-level data, but turning the country’s largest economic hubs into what are essentially just very large college towns, will have a big shift for both the country’s economy and stability. Whether that shift is a good or bad thing remains to be seen, so far it hasn’t been great.
All the urban densification billions being spent for housing migrants to be stacked like cord wood to toil away at unskilled minimum wage jobs. Normal citizens who want to succeed, raise families and live normal lives bail out as big city poverty is not a good way to live.
I would even say people, young and old, Canadians or not, are leaving Canada for good. No quality of life, and expensive prices and taxes, especially in big cities. Drug addicts everywhere. So why exactly stay in Canada. Not to mention anything about the government…..
I agree but I am staying in central Alberta. A little bit saner her for a bit. 7 months out of Canada is plan but that only works for people who are retired or who could afford to do it. People with families kids whatever it’s tough to be a refugee. I have children here and grandchildren so we have to maintain a home here but at least it doesn’t cost a million to a million and a half dollars like it did back on the lower mainland. Alberta is getting swamped too with immigrants and migrants so we are losing the Alberta advantage fairly rapidly. Many other countries are having problems too especially in the last year as people are flooding there and driving prices up. An example is Russian and Ukrainian migrants or refugees are flooding Thailand Vietnam and other countries running away from Putin and war. The landscape of some of these havens is starting to change too.
Abe, I don’t know where you live, but I live in Vancouver. The densification billions spent here produce luxury condos selling for up to $2,500 a square foot. No unskilled migrants buying those units.
I live in Sylvan Lake Alberta and sold out my real estate holdings in the Lower Mainland of BC in the spring of 2022. I invested most of our money into Alberta real estate from Edmonton all the way down to Calgary in 2022 and 2023. As a resident and a landlord, let me just say I am a happy camper. Alberta and especially Central Alberta are very nice places to be for young people starting out and raising families. Calgary is getting pricey but is still reasonable by today’s Canadian standards. Edmonton is now really starting to take off as far as real estate goes. It is dirt, stinking cheap to buy a home in Edmonton today for somebody moving from BC or Alberta. Even cheaper in Red Deer area or Lethbridge. Calgary is still very reasonable but more money. Saskatchewan is starting to get many people moving in too. As far as cold winters, I can just hop on the plane and go somewhere warm but I do not mind the cold and stayed home this winter. You get used to it and it is not forever. Try ice fishing on Sylvan Lake in winter – looks like fun. What can be worse is the smoke from forest fires in the summer and that is something I cannot get used to.
Trudeau is EXTREMELY intelligent and has a plan.
Yes, repopulation by immigration and weeding out the undesirables by promoting assisted dying and free opioids to dumb down the weakest members of the resident population. All we have to do is look to Europe to view our future. A very, very dark future indeed
Very misleading article as these cities continue to grow at over 1% a year and it’s not just “college students” as the writer naively suggests. The growth is mostly coming from immigration and PR’s…..all Canadian cities are booming as is the entire country at over 3% growth which is phenomenal.
Statistics Canada said the temporary residents were primarily students, so it’s not at all misleading. It’s the reality, which is why the government is now moving to limit student visas for the first time.
This sounds a lot like the governments moves against bare trusts – they had to move against money laundering , announced a plan that would work, then never implemented it.
When will it be implemented?
Don’t worry your pretty little head about that.
I would add that the article suggests that it was “always the case” that you needed deep pockets to buy a home in Toronto. That’s ridiculous. My parents were broke when they started dating and managed to buy a bungalow in Toronto in the late 80’s/early 90s. Even by the time I was in highschool (early-mid 2000’s) it was completely feasible for someone to find an attainable starter home in the City.
Saying it was “always the case” that you needed deep pockets really handwaves reality away.
Tell that to the fast food workers from Mexico and India working under the table by the thousands being paid low wages or kicking back cash to the owners in work permit PR promise schemes. I know of many with these people living in cramped ghetto like conditions all over Vancouver and Toronto. You have to stop drinking the Kool aide and stop believing the statistical propaganda of the liberal government.
Booming with what types of peoples
Please do not begin to compare Canada now with the perfect country it was 40 years ago
Diversity is no strength
It is probably good in the long run for the big cities easing strain on the infrastructure and good for some of the provinces that have been losing residents for decades.
Maybe. The shift isn’t a normal shift despite the framing in the article, which only hints at the problem. It’s not younger skilled labor, but temporary residents on student visas. When people with 20+ years experience start moving, they take the jobs with them.
That’s less than ideal for the newly graduated trying to find a job before their student visa is up.
This actually misses all the people moving from a major city area to the fringes of the province.
My own anecdotal data says in the last 2 years 2 families left the greater Toronto area for Newfoundland and New Brunswick. But 3 families moved 2 to 3 hours away, and stayed in Ontario. And 1 family went to America for a 5x or more salary increase (as a doctor).
This has been years in the making because of the government’s inaction in certain areas; the chicken is coming to roost.
Just remember, if a job can be done remotely it relies only on input/output data. In which case it can be offshored. If it can be offshored, it can be replaced with AI.
and no, forcing people to do their job that can be offshored in an office doesn’t make things better. It makes that issue worse. A lot worse.
No worries. There’s zero chance Canada will actually enforce the student visa caps.
It used to be called what it is – white flight.
Out with the old in with the new
Well toronto has gone down the tubes since the late 70s
This city used to be called TORONTO THE GOOD then the arrival of 3rd world non euro immigratiom just destroyed this once perfect city
How can diversity be a strength when its basically only white countries worth living in ???
Can someone explain how a once %99 white city stil be great now its %50
Please name me 1 non white city in this whole dam world thats decent
Maybe Tokyo maybe in UAE but in general all tge people that came here are from.shitholes and what they are gonna change ?
What a mistake Trudeau Sr made
My adult son saved more in income taxes leaving Canada than I make in a year being retired. Nothing for him or his generation in Canada and why would I want to spend what remains of my life struggling financially in the country I was born in, lived in and paid taxes my entire life in. Nobody could ever fix the mess Trudeau and his woke disciples have created in what remains of my lifetime. Just a few weeks into permanently being in a developing nation. Love it and happy not to be living and witnessing Trudeau’s first post-national state on the verge of collapse. They said “Venezuela” could never happen in Canada but socialism always ends that way.