Western Canadian Real Estate Prices Lead Lower, While Ontario Is Booming

Canadian real estate markets are heading in opposite directions, as Ontario picks up. Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) data shows national prices made a gain in September. The national index, making a smaller than inflation rise, was held down by British Columbia markets.

Canadian Real Estate Prices Rising Less Than Inflation

Canadian real estate prices showed positive growth for a third consecutive month. CREA reported a typical (or benchmark) home across Canada was $628,200 in September, up 0.52% from the month before. This represents an increase of 1.34%, when compared to the same month last year. Prices are rising, just not much.

Canadian Real Estate Benchmark Change

The 12 month price in change of a typical home across Canada.

Source: CREA, Better Dwelling.

Canadian real estate prices are making up some ground lost over the past year. The 1.34% is small, but it was the third consecutive month to show positive growth. The increase wipes out most of the negative impact over the past year to the aggregate. Price weakness is largely regional though.

Canadian Real Estate Benchmark Price

The price of a typical home in Canada’s largest real estate markets.

Source: CREA, Better Dwelling.

Ontario Real Estate Prices Lead In Gains

Markets in Ontario are seeing the biggest moves higher, compared to last year. Ottawa made the biggest climb with a benchmark of $434,100 in September, up 9.61% from the last year. Niagara followed with a typical home hitting $422,900, up 8.1% over the same period. The Hamilton-Burlington region came in third with a benchmark of $616,800, up 7.35% from last year. The big increase in all of these markets likely have to do with lower than typical past performance.

Canadian Real Estate Price Change – 1 Year

The 1 year percent change in the price of a typical home, in Canada’s largest markets.

Source: CREA, Better Dwelling.

Western Canadian Real Estate Markets Lead In Losses

The index is being held down by weakness in Western Canada, especially in BC. Vancouver made the biggest drop, with the benchmark falling to $990,600 in September, down 7.28% from last year. Fraser Valley, the adjacent market, followed with a typical home hitting $818,900, down 4.68% from last year. Regina came in third with a benchmark of $266,800, down 3.95% from last year. BC markets have made large gains over the past decade, so the decline shouldn’t surprise.

Canadian Real Estate Price Change From Peak

The percent change from peak pricing for a typical home in Canada’s largest markets.

Source: CREA, Better Dwelling.

Canadian real estate prices are rising, but at a pace lower than inflation. The good news is most of the weakness is regional. Well, that’s good news if you’re not a seller in a region impacted.

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One Comment


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  • Tia Wolfe 5 years ago

    There is no correction without a market shock. Calgary/Edmonton/Regina had a big one with oil shock, which sent it down much faster.

    British Columbia had one when China cut off foreign buying.

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