Canada’s largest real estate markets are seeing unemployment fall from peak. Statistics Canada (Stat Can) data shows October saw the rate drop in Toronto, Vancouver, and Montreal. These markets all saw improvements, but they’re still far from pre-pandemic levels.
Toronto Has One of The Highest Unemployment Rates In Canada
Toronto has one of the highest unemployment rates of any city in Canada, but things are getting better. The seasonally adjusted rate of unemployment fell to 11.5% in October, down 1.3 points from the month before. Compared to the same month last year, the rate is still 5.8 points higher. Things are getting better, but the region is still in a very deep recession.
Canadian Unemployment Rates
The monthly rate of unemployment in Canada’s most important real estate markets, with the national rate to contrast.
Source: Stat Can, Better Dwelling.To contrast, Toronto is doing much worse than the rest of Ontario. The province had an unemployment rate of 9.9% in October, down 0.6 points from the month before. Compared to last year, the rate is still 4.5 points higher. This indicates Toronto was hit harder than the province in general, but is recovering faster.
Vancouver Unemployment No Longer Double Digits
Vancouver’s unemployment is back into single digit territory. The rate of unemployment fell to 9.7% in October, down 1.4 points from the month before. Compared to last year, this is still 4.7 points higher. The market was less impacted than places like Toronto, and is recovering faster.
To contrast, the province of BC is generally seeing less unemployment, but is recovering slower. The rate fell to 9% in October, down 1 point from the month before. Compared to last year, this represents a decline of 4.1 points. Recovering slower, but fewer points to get back to last year’s levels.
Montreal’s Unemployment Rate Drops To 9.6%
Montreal is also out of the double digit range for unemployment. The unemployment rate fell to 9.6% in October, down 1.1 points from the month before. Compared to last year, this rate is still up 4.1 points from last year. The market appears to have seen a similar impact to Vancouver, and is not nearly as bad as Toronto.
To contrast, the province of Quebec is doing much better. The rate of unemployment fell to 7.9% in October, down 0.6 points from the month before. Compared to the same month last year, this is up 3 points. Overall, Montreal was more impacted than the general province. However, it’s also seeing faster improvements.
Canada’s largest real estate markets are seeing the worst of unemployment pass. However, this is still a deeply recessionary environment, much worse than last year. Experts don’t expect a full recovery until at least 2022. Most also don’t see a straight line for recovery, so these rates may climb at some point, before falling lower.
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Participation rate is a whole point lower than last year, so it’s like adding another point to unemployment. Unless people are going to permanently just relax outside of the economy forever.
CIBC just sent out a report that says 448,000 people are long-term unemployed, and it’s likely to climb even more. That’s unemployment for longer than 6 months.
If you take into account the lower labour participation rate and emigration, things haven’t got any better since March . If you’re unemployed, remember that no job is beneath you.
A down-tick in unemployement? Well then it’s a good thing the Liberals are bringing in 1.3 million+ newcomers in the next 2-3 years to flood the labour market and keep wages suppressed for Canadian citizens. Heaven forbid Canadian employees have any bargaining power.
Had enough yet of the federal government you elected, Millennials?
Time to investigate Provincial and local governments in Ontario and BC for real estate related corruption. These corrupt politicians refuse to bring down housing price and infact are propping up this bubble.
These are crime against all Canadians.
We’re in a major recession, unemployment is at an all time high, debts continue to accumulate, end of mortgage deferrals, this is only the beginning of an even larger national recession. In my humble opinion we should expect a major decrease in housing prices across all of Canada, specifically in Vancouver, Toronto, Montreal and Calgary.
Going to be a sad day when the poor people who are drowning in mortgage debt are left with a mortgage debt that is greater than the market value of their homes. I blame this on greedy banks who lent out money too easily and allowed Canadians to over leverage themselves to buy a home. Mortgage payments should not exceed 20%-30% of your take home money after tax, anything more is just ludacris.