Toronto Real Estate Sees Fewest Sales In Decades, Record Condo Listings Canceled

Greater Toronto real estate didn’t get a boost from the rate cut cycle that kicked off last month, as the industry hoped. TRREB data shows home prices dropped further as June sales printed the lowest level in decades. Condo demand has become so weak that one bank warned investors that frustrated sellers are canceling listings at a record pace.

Greater Toronto Home Prices Slip As Demand Softens Further

Greater Toronto real estate prices slipped a little further from last year. The benchmark price of a home across the region was $1.11 million in June, down 4.6% from last year. Homes in the City of Toronto took a bigger hit, falling 5.1% over the same period to $1.15 million. Both measures show larger declines for annual growth than the previous month, indicating the loss trend is accelerating.

Worst June For Toronto Home Sales In 24 Years, Inventory Climbs

Even more noteworthy was how soft home sales have become in Greater Toronto. The board reported just 6,213 existing homes sold in June, down 16.4% from last year. That makes it the weakest June demand for existing homes in Greater Toronto since 2000. For those that need a reminder, that was 24 years ago—a whole generation hasn’t seen sales this slow. Before iPhone or YouTube. A tiny company called Google was just getting ready to become the default search provider for Yahoo! It was a looong time ago.

At the same time, inventory is heading in the opposite direction. New listings climbed 12.3% over the past year to 17,964 units in June. Even the board acknowledged the sudden rise of supply in a region where it has been notoriously scarce. 

“The GTA housing market is currently well-supplied. Recent home buyers have benefitted from substantial choice and therefore negotiating power on price,” explained Jason Mercer, the chief analyst at TRREB.

Toronto Condo Sellers Have Never Canceled So Many Listings Before

Greater Toronto real estate has been generally weak, but single-family homes are faring better than condos. The condo segment has turned so weak that even financial institutions are sending warnings to investors.

“The story of the Toronto real estate market is very different, depending on the property segment,” said Daren King, an economist at National Bank of Canada (NBF).  

In a research letter to investors, he notes a significant, double-digit decline in the volume of seasonally adjusted condo sales from a month prior. Seasonally adjusted volumes don’t mean much in the context of the skewed seasonal patterns real estate has followed post-2020, but it did reveal an odd data point that would normally slip under the radar. 

“On the [condo] supply side, active listings decreased by 1.6% despite a 3.5% [monthly] increase in new listings, as we estimate that a record number of sellers canceled their listings during the month,” explained King.

Canceled listings provide context to the greater weakness of demand in the current environment, beyond raw inventory. Sellers unable to unload their properties are becoming so frustrated they’re pulling their listings, obfuscating that demand is weaker than typical data points reveal.

The industry had expected things to pick up as rates were cut, especially since population growth is still chugging along. However, the narrative was based largely on a sudden shift in sentiment, since lower mortgage rates were already available before the cuts. Fixed rate mortgages are currently much cheaper than variable term, preventing the overnight rate from providing any material boost to credit availability.

Estimated population growth may be fueling the assumption that buyers will inevitably appear. However, they’re still working against the city’s fundamentals, which include rising rental apartment vacancies, rising office vacancies, and a surging unemployment rate that’s much higher than the national average.

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  • Reply
    Daniel P. 2 weeks ago

    Frustrated sellers are canceling listings on tiny condos that nobody wants/needs. Good luck with your investment….NOT.

  • Reply
    dave frazer 1 week ago

    Condos might well be totally worthless, in the not too distant future. Rising monthly fees which considerably exceed the inflation rate will soon be destroying the actual values of condos .Its happening already. I note some condos have been already sold at a discount due to high fees and sudden large repair assessments. Lots more will fall into that area soon. If you cannot sell now just wait a few months and see your value
    dissipate ,yes that is the word no drop. With a falling market and increasing fees there will be few if any buyers suddenly.

    • Reply
      Justin D 1 week ago

      The almost million Indian students coming to Canada to work Uber, Amazon and fast food jobs can’t not afford $700k studio apartments. They can’t afford $1.5M homes. The BS narrative pushed by the gov’t and realtors needs to stop. There isn’t a bunch of immigrant buyers waiting on the sideline for lower rates to buy overpriced RE. It’s not happening and this is the new reality.

      • Reply
        Julia 2 seconds ago

        Where are the $700 000 studio apartments, except in your head ? I haven’t seen even 1 on the market. There are plenty for in the $400 000 range.

    • Reply
      Mark Bayly 1 week ago

      I agree Condos are down right scary. People don’t realize the cost of elevators alone. Of course your local real estate agent with his six month training course will tell you they’re a great investment.

  • Reply
    Micmac 1 week ago

    Admins here don’t like my comments because it doesn’t fit their “it’s all ok ” agenda. However, in case this post makes it, I hope the same greedy gatekeepers that caused this mess are starting to hurt.

  • Reply
    Mark Bayly 1 week ago

    If the average guy clearing 3200 a month saves every dime and never spends a cent after 30 years he càn pay cash for his house What’s the problem??

  • Reply
    John 1 week ago

    Seriously condos are silly investments, rising condo fees that may top a thousand dollars a month coupled with property tax and occasional repair make owners a life long tenants to property they already forked millions to buy

  • Reply
    Mark Hope 1 week ago

    Forget TREB. New condo towers ( 117 cranes in the air) will skyrocket that condo market inventory. 5 towers went into insolvency with creditor protection. 3 were shut down completely due to lagging sales and running out of operating capital.
    With condo building costs standing at a staggering $1,540 per square foot topped with an average monthly condo fees exceeding $1,220 plus parking at a premium cost.
    Prices are much higher for projects in Yorkville…Bayview Village…Hoggs Hollow…etc.
    The average interest rate on a 5 year fixed mortgage over 25 years since 1982 is 6.2% So they are in line to historic rate values.
    TREB says the average priced home sits at $1.14 mil. To qualify to buy that you need an annual income of $232,400 coming thru your front door and a down payment of at least $320,000. Statistically, only 17.7% of Toronto’s population meet that financial criteria. You also need excellent credit and minimal personal debt.
    I am a numbers guy. Senior Analyst at Goldman Sachs for35 years. Now retired. Numbers don’t lie unless you are cooking the books. Just ask Trump…he’s a master at it.

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