Greater Toronto real estate prices have now seen the largest correction in history. That didn’t stop prices from slipping further in October, according to TRREB data. Lofty inventory and weak sales pushed prices down to their lowest level in almost 6 years.
Toronto Real Estate Prices Have Plunged 28.4% Since Peak
The price of a typical home across Greater Toronto.
Source: TRREB; CREA; Better Dwelling.
The price of a home across Greater Toronto slipped 0.13% (-$1.2k) to $915,400 in October, 4.3% (-$40.8k) lower than last year. Home prices have plunged 28.4% (-$363.4k) since peaking in 2022. Even the sharpest correction in the region’s history has yet to wipe out pandemic gains though. Prices are back to December 2020 levels, though many would argue this is a modelling issue. Weak demand may confirm that, as buyers clearly don’t see this level as a “deal.”
Toronto Home Sales Fall To 3 Year Low
Greater Toronto home sales through the MLS.
Source: TRREB; CREA; Better Dwelling.
Sales suffered another setback last month. TRREB reported 5,600 sales through the MLS in October, down 7.9% from last year. This is the second year to show a year-over-year drop in sales, marking a 3-year low for the month. Last month’s demand wasn’t the worst in the slump, but pre-pandemic volumes hadn’t been this low since 2008. Not the worst, but certainly far from anything that resembles normal.
Fewer New Listings, But The Volume Remains Historically Strong
New listings provided something for Toronto real estate bulls to chew on. There were 14,170 new listings in October, 11.9% lower than last year. The slide also marked the weakest October since 2022, though there’s no need to fear a shortage. Despite being the slowest volume for the month in 4 years, only 8 of the past 22 years have seen more new listings.
The sales-to-new-listings ratio (SNLR) only came in at 37.9% in October. That means TRREB is still in a buyer’s market, where the industry expects prices to fall further.
Toronto Real Estate Inventory Pulls Back, Third Highest On Record
Greater Toronto active listings of homes for sale in October.
Source: TRREB; CREA; Better Dwelling.
One reason for the weak inflow of new listings may be the lofty levels of inventory sitting on the market. There were 25,100 active listings for sale in October, down 10% from last year but the third-most ever. The year-over-year drop was sharp, but it’s from the record high for October.
Greater Toronto real estate doesn’t look like it’s set to exit its tailspin soon. The prolonged correction is working at a snail’s pace, spending 4 years to roll back roughly 14 months of gains. With experts warning of higher rates and a wobbly economy, any mitigating factors seem beyond the horizon.
