Toronto Real Estate Prices Down Over A Quarter-Million Dollars, Nearing A “Crash”

Toronto must have found more land because prices are plummeting for real estate. Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) data shows prices fell sharply in October. A typical home (composite benchmark) has seen prices fall over a quarter-million dollars. They’re still dropping and breaching important psychological levels as well.

Greater Toronto Real Estate Prices Fell Over $12k Last Month

Greater Toronto real estate continues to cool as buyers adjust to higher rates. A benchmark home across TRREB fell to $1,098,200 in October, down 1.12% (-$12,500). In the City of Toronto, it slipped to $1,090,200, down 1.25% (-$13,800). The rate of decline was slightly smaller than the previous month, but not by much. At this point it’s mostly noise, but still worth keeping an eye on.

Greater Toronto Real Estate Are Off The Peak

The composite benchmark price of a home across Greater Toronto.

Source: TRREB; Better Dwelling.

Greater Toronto Real Estate Prices Show Negative Annual Growth For The First Time In 4 Years

Annual price growth did something it rarely does — it turned negative. TRREB reported annual growth was 1.34% (-$15,600) lower than last year. Not a huge monetary decline, but potentially an important psychological one.

Greater Toronto Real Estate Price Growth Is Decelerating

The 12-month percent change for the composite benchmark price of a home across Greater Toronto.

Source: TRREB; Better Dwelling.

This is the first time in over 4 years the board has reported annual losses. It’s a small decline, but it’s important to understand the potential psychological implications. People often dismiss the downturn by saying, “prices are still higher than last year.” That’s no longer the case. 

Greater Toronto Real Estate Is Near Being Declared A Crash

Greater Toronto real estate might soon fit the definition of a “crash.” TRREB home prices have now fallen 17.3% (-$236,800) since peaking in March 2022. Since a technical crash is a decline of 20% from previous levels, this can be breached within two months. Once again, this can turn into an important psychological level that slows activity further.

Greater Toronto real estate is in a rut, but most of the country’s markets are. Just as low rates stimulate demand and prices, higher rates are doing the opposite. One differentiating factor here is that Toronto prices are much higher, but incomes are similar to the rest of the country. This leaves the market more sensitive to rate hikes.

11 Comments

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  • Reply
    J_Morrow 4 days ago

    Can all the ‘this time is different’ people please send me their mobile numbers so I can text you dunk-themed GIFs? That is all. Thank you

    • Reply
      J 3 days ago

      I believe you can find them on most RE Brokerage sites and listed freely in the Yellow Pages 😉

      Fed just went 75bps – we’re in for a bit of a hurt with currency related inflation + wages due to labour shortages. We had a guy headhunted for a position for QC and his company offered him a better option when they hear he was resigning. That’s how to get a raise – resign LOL.

      Companies are so badly managed – brain drain will be real in 2023-2025. I’m looking at work in Cali as I type this. I’ll take my chances with a maybe earthquake and constant forest fires over ON Politics.

  • Reply
    Alissa 4 days ago

    Do you think the massive immigration increase to 500,000 yearly is a desperate attempt to try and maintain the housing bubble?

    • Reply
      GTA Landlord 1 day ago

      Lots of immigration during the early 90s and home prices still cratered.

    • Reply
      J_Morrow 4 seconds ago

      Yes. Amongst many other socially destabilizing objectives. But yes.

  • Reply
    JCH 4 days ago

    Can we please keep in mind that none of the price increase of the last few years (dare I say decade?) was real? It was solely due to rock-bottom interest rates and lending standards, and never should have happened – a complete disconnect from fundamental support.

    So, while it’s unfortunate for those who bought in the last few years, realtors/boards need to not call the drop a disaster. The disaster was all the people suckered into taking on unrepayable debt because they believed the FOMO/”real estate always goes up”/”can’t lose” narrative. And now having set a fake new high water mark, govts/politicians/BoC will expect taxpayers to support it.

    That’s the part that really makes me furious, and ready to leave Canada — to avoid the massive tax increases & higher cost of living that will be needed to keep real estate speculators from bankruptcy by propping up house prices to these unrealistic levels.

  • Reply
    Chris Owens 4 days ago

    The Headline is ‘Inflammatory” Nothing is Crashing. Cheap Shot … from a “Stats Guy” Slowing Not Crashing.

    • Reply
      Tim 1 day ago

      No it’s not. They literally defined the technical term for a crash, and used it. It couldn’t be less inflammatory, because they’re using financial terms Realtors don’t even know.

  • Reply
    Jan Cerny 4 days ago

    Can you please write sometimes about Canada’s colonies? Like Alberta or Saskatchewan where most of your energy is coming from? And Calgary market. It is not sensational, because it is not dropping as a stne, but still… Thanx

    • Reply
      Tim 1 day ago

      You want them to hire a journalist to cover a market where it’s boom is half the size of Toronto’s slowest sales in decades?

  • Reply
    Peter 2 days ago

    We (common people) are in business of selling our labor.
    I could never understand, where do we cheer housing price rise.
    I wish houses are so cheap so that a person living on minimum wage, could buy house in one year earning.

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