Greater Toronto real estate reversed any sign of firming last year, as sellers continue to flood the market. Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) prices made a sharp drop in November, correcting over 25% since peaking. Despite the substantial correction, sales pulled back once again as inventory hit a new record for the month.
Toronto Real Estate Prices Down Over 25% From Peak—Only Back To 2021-Levels
Greater Toronto Real Estate: The Price of Typical Home Across TRREB.
Source: TRREB; CREA; Better Dwelling.
Greater Toronto home prices slipped even further last month. The price of a typical home fell 0.5% (-$5,100) to $951,700 in November, with monthly losses coming in much bigger than last month. Prices have dropped 5.8% (-$58,300) from last year, bringing them 25.8% (-$330,200) lower since peak. Despite the substantial pullback, this only puts prices back to January 2021—speaking volumes about the speculative surge that took place during the low-rate investor frenzy.
Toronto Real Estate Inventory Is So High It Can’t Find Its Car
Greater Toronto Existing Home Sales and Active Listings: November.
Source: TRREB; CREA; Better Dwelling.
Greater Toronto new home sales fell last month, rolling back any signs of firming last year. The board reported 5,010 sales in November, down 15.8% from last year. November is typically not a big month for home buying in the region, but it was still the third-weakest in at least 15 years.
Inventory almost looked like it was going to firm but it’s hard to overcome a multi-month build up. There were 11,134 new listings in November, down a minor 4.0% from last year. Anecdotal evidence from agents suggests some sellers are waiting for the Spring, with some even de-listing and hoping easing financing conditions help manage demand—a bold move considering the overall inventory trend.
Weak sales and a weaker—but still strong—inflow of inventory pushed total inventory much higher. The board saw 24,549 active listings last month, soaring 16.8% higher from last year. This is unprecedented for November, with the above chart really emphasizing how this market is a totally different beast.
November and December typically aren’t big months for Greater Toronto real estate. Consequently, weak sales aren’t the big red flag they present in busier Spring months. However, winter inventory may have a big impact as it piles up. It sets the stage for a Spring market that sellers are reportedly holding out for—just as a wave of investor-owned new construction completions are expected to hit.
dat inventory chart dho.
Anyone with an agent that’s old enough to remember Alf can assure you this isn’t a correction that resolves in just a few months and the gov can’t fix it with a flood of immigration or incentives. It didn’t work in the 1990s and won’t work now. But you should enjoy that as 10 years from now it’ll be awesome if politicians don’t screw it up.
Give it a few weeks. I bought my first house in 1990 and it seemed stupid but now its the best investment I’ve made. This site is always emphasizing CYCLE, CYCLE, CYCLE, but it never discusses that what goes down goes up in a cycle.
Yes, but we may be in the early stages of the cycle, who knows. All the same, I thought we didn’t have enough housing in TO? The problem was never supply it was demand caused by investors and ridiculously low interest rates. Greed, its a hell of a drug!
A few weeks ?? My little finger tells me that you also bought something at the peak and are now trying to rationalize your purchase. Because for the rest of us it’s pretty obvious, this is a bubble bursting. And that’s a good thing, for our kids and grand-kids.
Don’t try to catch a falling knife!
Houses are cheaper now than when you bought using the price of gold. Lol
A few weeks, a few years is more likely. The inventory levels are going to explode in the spring for 2 reasons. People have been holding back hoping for a spring market sale. The other more deadly reason is the panic sellers, trying to get out before the total market collapse. The cycle is there, your pretty near the top, the bottom may surprise us all.
Home prices came down but it’s still unaffordable. On an national level we need to make real estate investment very unprofitable so capital will go into more productive means. Home prices coming down is a good thing for most people especially our future generations.
In Q3 2024 the GTA had 88,000 condos under construction, most of which are approaching completion.
Many are now requiring Presale buyers to take occupancy.
The first wave of this tsunami is now hitting.
Subsequent waves will be over the next 18 months.
There’s a Bad Moon on the rise..
143 million USA homes just next door to Toronto and all of Canada. What were they thinking? One huge North American market now – money moves like lightning across North America seeking out the best deals.
You left out the part about us hating everything American , why? your attitude towards Canada , and the millions of morons that elected Trump , this won’t change for at least a generation , I know because I asked my kids , if you want cheap real estate go to Florida , all kinds of Canadian condos for sale.