Greater Toronto real estate just had the worst May on record—but you wouldn’t know it from prices. TRREB’s composite benchmark price (i.e. a typical home) climbed in May. Yes, climbed. The increase was unexpected, given that record-high inventory and weak sales made it the worst-performing May market in history.
Toronto Real Estate Prices Climb Despite Bear Market
The price of a typical home across Greater Toronto (a.k.a. The composite benchmark).
Source: TRREB; CREA; Better Dwelling.
Believe it or not, Greater Toronto home prices rose last month, according to TRREB. The composite benchmark price increased 0.3% (+$3,400) to $1,012,800 in May—marking the first gain since February and reversing April’s drop.
Prices remain 4.5% (-$47,600) lower than last year, but that’s an improvement from April. Asset prices don’t move in a straight line—a single month changing directions can be a new trend or just noise within an existing move. It won’t be clear for a few months, but when viewed alongside demand and inventory measures, it’s worth watching how this evolves.
Greater Toronto May Home Sales Fell To The 2nd Lowest Level In Decades
Greater Toronto real estate sales dropped to one of the weakest levels in decades. Just 6,244 homes sold across TRREB in May, down 13.3% from last year. Excluding the 2020 lockdown, which physically restricted buying, it was the worst May in 25 years.
Toronto Real Estate Records Worst Demand Balance On Record
Buyers are still on the sidelines, but sellers are rushing for the exit in historic volumes. New listings were up 14% from last year, reaching 21,819 homes in May. If that sounds like a lot, it is—only the 2017 rush had a bigger May. That spike came one month after the Government of Ontario introduced a non-resident speculation tax, which led to soaring inventory and a sharp correction in home prices.
Weak sales and surging inventory pushed a key demand indicator to its lowest level on record. The sales to new listings ratio (SNLR) fell to 28% in May, down from 37% a year before. At this level, the industry considers it a buyer’s market, where prices are expected to fall. It also marks a historic low for May, which is typically the peak season for housing demand.
Toronto Has Never Had More Existing Homes For Sale In May
Greater Toronto’s existing home inventory reached a level few expected. TRREB reported a staggering 30,964 active listings in May, up 41.5% from last year. It was the highest on record for the month, with only May 1995 coming close. That was during the mid-90s real estate crash—the last major correction for Toronto real estate, preceding a 22-year stagnation for real home prices.
TRREB’s latest report mirrors the new home sales trend, which is also historically weak. Both segments have seen rising inventory, while the region shows signs of a broader erosion in macro indicators—such as elevated unemployment and an outflow of young adults.
A price increase is out of step with this environment, but prices can be volatile at such low volumes. A few higher-priced sales can skew the movements, but it fails to account for the record number of listings that failed to move.
The big problem with real estate as an investment, people are highly urrational about expectations. Despite record numbers of listings, sellers appear not to be under pressure to drop prices.
Now thos fact is interesting for a couple of reasons. First is that the narrative that supply will fix the housing crisis. There are 2 ways to fix the current mess, prices need tp drop by a lot, or wages need to go way up. Since the current environkent supports neither of these outcomes.
Wages are under pressure as unemployment is rising, as is underemployment. Outside of the civil service, wages are flat. Now cutting off immigration will lijely rrsolve some of that, but since ths disconnect in wages is so big, it wont make a difference for years.
The other issue is that untill banks start forclosing on people, they wont deel pressure to sell. Once they feel pressure to sell the prices will drop.
However, with the liberals sgowing no interest in letting the banks take any responsibility for the extreme over pricing of housing, meaning no reason to sell.
Im guessing that for carney, a soceity with no middle class, just the rich and serfs. When people are spending 60, 70, 80% of their income on housing, they are serfs. So much for the middle class?
Nobody ever made money in Canada by working for a living.
This isn’t a mystery. The vast MAJORITY of properties hitting the market are total crap holes being dumped by “investors” and undesirable condos.
Any “decent” property in a decent location sells immediately, due to the fact that a real “home” is becoming scarcer and therefore driving the average price UP. Trust me I know, I’m trying to buy a “home” not a slum hole.
Strange. I could swear I saw an article on Bloomberg yesterday that said GTA prices dropped in May.??
I’m not crazy, here it is…
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-05/toronto-home-prices-drop-as-property-listings-linger-on-market
Hi, welcome to June 2025…
You are crazy actually, that’s a 2024 article lol
Firstly it’s a very bearish chart.
Secondly any price action that is accompanied by low volume is in fact a counter trend move, implying and indeed confirming the main trajectory is downward prices. This is just as true for the stocks as it is real estate ( or any asset).