Toronto Real Estate Inventory Surges, Now Deeper Into Bear Market

The Greater Toronto real estate rut continued last month. Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) data shows the price of a typical home fell once again in September. Despite a mild improvement in sales, inventory climbed much faster helping to apply further downward pressure on prices. The benchmark is now within spitting distance of prices rolling back 3 years.

Toronto Home Prices Are Close To Rolling Back 3 Years 

The composite benchmark price of a home across Greater Toronto.

Source: TRREB; CREA; Better Dwelling. 

Greater Toronto real estate continues to slide lower. The price of a benchmark, or typical, home fell 1.2% (-$13,500) to $1,068,700 in September. This marks the fifth consecutive monthly drop, rolling back prices to the start of the year. The mini-boom in anticipation of falling rates has now almost entirely reversed. 

Toronto Real Estate Price Growth Remains Negative, But Will That Change Soon?

The annual rate of change for a composite benchmark home across Greater Toronto.

Source: TRREB; CREA; Better Dwelling. 

Home prices have fallen significantly over the past few years, and are close to reaching a new milestone. Home prices are 4.6% (-$51,500) lower than last year, and have fallen 18.7% ($245,100) since peaking in March 2022. Even if price declines slow further, just a quarter of the decline seen last month will roll prices back to September 2021 levels, reversing 3 years of movement. 

Reversing post-2020 rate cuts is still a long way off. The benchmark would need to drop another 21.8% before prices are back to March 2020 levels. It really emphasizes how frothy this market’s been in recent years. 

Toronto Real Estate Inventory Surges, Now Deeper Into Bear Market

There was a minor improvement in one area—home sales. TREBB reported annual growth rose 8.5% to 4,996 homes in September. It sounds like a substantial move, but the comparison period was one of the slowest on record last year. Still, some growth is better than no growth. 

Greater Toronto is seeing a lot more sellers anxious to get out of the market. New inventory climbed even faster than sales to hit 18,089 new listings in September, up 10.5% from last year. The build up of inventory helped pushed active listings up 35.5% to 25,261 units over the same period. Toronto inventory went from scarce to a glut as fast as raising rates killed profits for speculators. 

The surge of inventory has the market deep in bear country. The sales to new listings ratio (SNLR) fell to 28% last month. An SNLR below 40% is considered a seller’s market, where the industry generally believes prices will fall. Toronto rarely plunges to this level and with the flood of inventory and rental vacancies, the odds are stacked against a quick bounce for now. 

12 Comments

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  • Peter Michaels 6 months ago

    Is anyone moving to Toronto that isn’t a criminal these days?

    • Brett weir 6 months ago

      I know we had the greatest city in the world in 1967
      I was born in 1962 and watched this city peak around time the skydome opened
      What a proud day
      Then the government thought bright idea to flood us with non traditional immigrants
      Terrible mistake
      Only 1 race has decent countries to live in why ???
      Well if it’s true and it is why the hell.flood it with non euro types
      Yes a small % is fine
      But in mass numbers you see what happens
      I only sleep with darker women way better figures and actually exercise unlike porky white women
      I suggest we allow only female minorities into 🇨🇦
      Why not???

      • Amatsig 6 months ago

        Toronto peaked when Montreal collapsed. In 1976, the rise of the pm saw most companies migrate from Montreal to Toronto by 84. Before that Toronto was pretty much a rust belt city, centered around manufacturing, distribution, and agriculture.
        Toronto indeed peaked in the late eighties, with many leaving to go to bc, ab, and even back to Montreal by the 90s.
        Housing prices in Canada are a function of the dysfunctional relationships between the bank cartel and its regulators in Ottawa.
        Toronto was able,to avoid the gfc in 2008 mainly because competent people in govt understood the relationship between housing, banks and govt. under the current govt they forgot that what saved us in 2008 is what has killed us today.
        Yes a flexible, highly liquid money supply can get you out of trouble, but it can also get you into even more. Canada’s money supply has more than doubled in 8 years, without any real gdp growth, that means they mainly just created inflation with the ‘housing boom’. Now Trudeau can’t even let the market correct, to demonstrate that he used mortgages to cover the collapsing gdp under his govt?

  • Trader Jim 6 months ago

    Toronto was overpriced in March 2020. Unemployment now higher than the national average and record office vacancies, I’m not sure what the bull case is here other than credit expansion.

    I say this as a Toronto home owner that thought I overpaid back in 2017, and watching this thing drain all of the region’s productivity.

    • Dustin Olender 6 months ago

      Isn’t an SNLR below 40% a buyer’s market?

    • Amatsig 6 months ago

      Toronto has been a boom and best housing market since the 1972. Correction. A house sold in 87 took till 2007 to get back to the 87 price? Today people have confused Harper’s govt’s quick action to de lever the banks in 08 with an infallible housing market?
      Today prices in Toronto are at least 50% overvalued. Toronto is a low income, low gdp economy. The current ‘good times’ there is mainly a function of financialization of residential real estate. However, with housing prices, immigration, employment and productivity declining, the good times are over, probably for 15+ years again.
      The only way out for Canada is to cancel pretty much everything Trudeau did since 2015, and try to rebuild our economy, based on sound investments and attracting investment, not by tax, borrow and steal as we have had since 2015.

  • [email protected] 6 months ago

    Toronto and Vancouver are both tanking.
    Not much interest from investors because of all the new taxes. Move in ready new USA houses for less than 400k is the end of Canada’s housing run up. See you back here in 20 years. First the prices collapse then they take 20 years or more to return to the highs. Forget mls and realtor sites. Zillow, redfin and landsearch are where the deals are in the USA.

    • Brett wier 6 months ago

      Why do Indians follow us ??
      Why not make own country decent liveable
      Why the hell not clean.up own India or Jamaica or Nigeria
      We don’t want them here for what ???
      Keep Canada the colour of this page not the writing

      • Lol 6 months ago

        Invasive species

      • D Uce 6 months ago

        Were your ancestors native Canadians or did they come to this country instead of improving their own?

  • Brett Wier 6 months ago

    We had the greatest city in the world in the 1960s until 80s.
    We were actually know as TORONTO THE GOOD no wonder people wanted to move here !.
    But 1 group destroyed Toronto the good and this group.hails from a carribean country and I will stand up to my belief to anyone
    Why did we need allow so many non traditional ” new Canadians here ??? They killed our police they killed a innocent girl at eatons centre they killed little children with their animalistic. Ways
    This has cause WHITE FLITE out of Toronto and now the crazy papers celebrate our city is more minority then white why ???
    Would paper be able to celebrate less blacks for instance ????
    The glut of homes is simple
    White people don’t want this shithole
    Only white people are law abiding so you will see aot of crime and empty condos soon
    Last one out turn out the lights

  • Brett wier 6 months ago

    Just add 2 million Indians
    They can pay $3000 per month rent by 10 in a 1 bedroom.
    Hallways may stink like curry
    Just add 2 million Chinese
    They actually have coin but they cause traffic fatalities
    Or add 50 Jamaicans They will.shoot up our city and will create more police work and prison cells
    Lots of ways just open our doors like Trudeau loves to do
    Who cares he destroyed our beautiful Canada
    Instead of song ” 1 little 2 little 3 Canadians
    Just sing Canada 1 million 2 million 3 million Canindians we love thee Canada strong n free
    Nort south east west curry will be best !!!
    What a shame to soldiers who died in ww2 for this Canada???
    Disgrace

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