The tide is turning quickly for Southern Ontario real estate, especially in Greater Toronto. Numbers from the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) show declining sales, and more new listings in October. Despite this, only 6 out of 27 major markets are in “buyer’s market” territory.
Vancouver Has The Biggest Increase In Sales
First let’s look at sales, where BC markets are leading in percentage growth compared to last year. In first is Vancouver, which saw 3,073 sales, a 34.5% increase compared to the same month last year. Fraser Valley came in second with 1,735 sales, a 24.8% increase compared to last year. Trois Rivieres, Quebec came in third with 96 sales, a 23.1% increase.
The largest declines in sales were all observed in Southern Ontario. The largest decline was in Toronto, which saw 7,118 sales in October. This represents a 27.1% decline compared to the same month last year. Niagara came in second with 515 sales, a 23.8% decline from last year. Kitchener-Waterloo came in third with 473 sales, an 18% decline from last year.
Regina Has The Largest Growth of New Listings
The greatest percentage growth of new listings wasn’t located in any of the country’s global cities. Regina saw the largest growth with 548 new listings in October, a 21.5% increase compared to the same month last year. Saint John came in second with 313 new listings, a 19% increase compared to last year. Edmonton came in third with 2,880 new listings, an 18.7% increase from last year.
The markets of Vancouver, Toronto, and Montreal landed right in the middle of the list. Vancouver saw 4,636 new listings in October, a 14% increase compared to last year. Toronto saw a massive 14,903 new listings, an 11.4% increase. Montreal saw 5,778 new listings, virtually flat from last year.
How To Use Sales As A Percentage of New Listings
So, what do you do with the sales and new listings numbers? You can get a basic read on whether you’re in a “buyer’s market,” or “seller’s market” using a sales-to-new listings ratio. When using the sales-to-new listings ratio, anything below 50% is a buyer’s market. This means the negotiation should be in favor of the buyer, and you can expect softer ask prices. Anything above 50%, and the you’re in a seller’s market. This means the market is in favor of sellers, so expect firmer prices and less concessions. The closer to 50, the more balanced the demand. That said, here are the numbers.
Toronto Is Seeing The Fastest Growing Gap In Sales-To-New Listings
The largest increase in sales-to-new listings ratio was observed in Ottawa. The nation’s capital saw a sales-to-new listings ratio of 62.9% in October, an 11.6% increase compared to this time last year. London came in second with a ratio of 79.1%, a 9.5% increase. Montreal was in third with 61.2%, a 6.5% increase.
The biggest losers were all located on Lake Ontario. In first was Toronto, with a sales-to-new listings ratio of 54.7% in October, a 17.9% decline compared to last year. Hamilton was in second with a sales-to-new listings ratio of 68.6%, a 15.2% decline. Niagara was in third with a sales-to-new listings ratio of 73.1%, an 11.3% decline.
TL;DR: Greater Toronto and the surrounding regions continues to soft sales with an increasing amount of inventory. Meanwhile, Greater Vancouver and the surrounding regions are seeing sales grow faster than inventory.
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