Toronto

Toronto New Home Prices Fall Up To $48,000, As Supply Eases Pressure

Greater Toronto new home prices slipped, as inventory helped to ease pricing pressure. BILD GTA, a local developer group, said sales climbed in April, especially in the condo segment. Higher inventory helped to attract more buyers, but also contributed to lower prices. New home prices fell up to $48,000 in just one month. A hefty discount over 30 days, especially considering it climbed at that rate just a few weeks before.

Greater Toronto New Home Prices Fell Up To $48,000

Toronto’s new single-family home prices made a sharp drop last month. The benchmark fell to $1,395,190 in April, down 3.35% ($48,448) from a month before. Prices are still 24.8% ($277,249) higher than the same month last year though. New home prices are still up significantly, even after the drop. However, that drop is something to keep an eye on, considering it would only take 6 months of those to wipe all gains.

New condo apartments also saw price declines, but it wasn’t nearly as big as the single-family drop. The benchmark price of a new condo reached $1,058,432 in April, down 0.55% ($5,885) from a month before. Prices are still up 7.5% ($73,844) though. Still plenty of profits are retained, but prices are changing quickly for some reason. 

Condo Apartment Sales Are Printing Multi-Year Highs For Growth

The insights for new home sales are kind of wonky, due to the pandemic’s impact on restrictions last year. There were  4,639 new home sales in April, up 467.81% from a year before. Like I said, that isn’t particularly useful since last April was a lockdown. Real estate hadn’t yet had rules on how to operate safely, putting a sudden halt on sales. Compared to 2019 though, new home sales are up 20.93%. It’s still a large increase, just not an absurd one due to base effect. 

Greater Toronto New Home Sales

Total April new home sales in Greater Toronto.
Source: BILD GTA; Altus Group; Better Dwelling.

Breaking that down, single-family new home sales grew — just not to typical levels. There were 1,020 new single-family homes sold in April, up 230.10% from a year before. Compared to 2019, this number was 30.10% higher. Even though it was higher than the past two years, the number was 26% below the 10-year average for the month. The past couple of years have been slow for the segment.

Single-family new home sales were unusually slow, but condo apartments became more coveted. There were 3,619 new condos sold in April, up 612.40% from the year before. Aside from the absurd base effect, new condo sales were 18.58% higher than 2019 levels. It was the biggest month for April condo sales since 2000, and the number was 69% higher than the 10-year average. A lot of interest in condo apartments, it would appear. 

Greater Toronto New Home Sales

Total new home sales in Greater Toronto for April, by region.
Source: BILD GTA; Altus Group; Better Dwelling.

The Market Is Still Tight, But More Inventory Helped Ease Pressures

The price reduction is most likely due to a bump in inventory, helping to ease some pressure. The sales to active listings ratio (SALR) fell to 36.9% in April, down from 43.6% a month before. April 2020 had a big data skew due to the sales halt, printing just a 5% SALR. Inventory is still very tight, and this is the highest April ratio since 2017. However, the month-over-month decline helps to explain why prices slipped. Pandemic buyers can’t remember last year.

Greater Toronto New Home Sales To Active

The ratio of sales to active listings for new homes in Greater Toronto, for the month of April.
Source: BILD GTA; Altus Group; Better Dwelling.

The base effect makes it difficult to pull many insights, but it’s safe to say market activity is still very brisk. Sales are up, even when compared to 2019 levels. Inventory is also rising though, helping to push prices lower. While prices are still up significantly from last year, the monthly drop is hard to ignore. Only 6 months like that would wipe out a year of massive gains for single-family homes.

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22 Comments

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  • Jason Bakker 2 months ago

    Why would anyone buy a new home right now, with the price volatility of new materials? The price you’re paying isn’t going to be close to the reality.

    • Gerald Haw 2 months ago

      SNLR in Toronto resales also falling. Real estate agents are probably making sacrifices to the gods to hope the lock down continues, and rates don’t inch higher.

    • Rudy 2 months ago

      Material prices are likely to come down in a few weeks. Lumber is going to be a good one. Mills have a buttload getting ready for distribution.

  • Peter Tremblay 2 months ago

    Down $50,000 in a month sounds like a nice and stable environment. Glad the government has this market backstopped.

    • Rudy 2 months ago

      anyone that bought last month will need to find 20% of that to close. **cries in Adam Vaughan**

  • Senior Happy 2 months ago

    Society needs a reset. Not the Great Reset though. An actual reset.

    • Rob 2 months ago

      I could not have said it better. Nothing seems real any more.

  • Michelle Y 2 months ago

    I don’t know how I feel about Better Dwelling anymore. All the articles makes it sound like the sky is falling and bubble will burst but 48k decrease in home prices is nothing in Toronto compared to how much it has increased the past few years.

    It almost feels like false hope. All while I still live with parents and will probably never be able to afford anything but an overpriced condo as first time buyer. Why am I even working overtime and working 60 hour work weeks?

    • Mo 2 months ago

      They are reporting data. Your interpretation of the data is what you’re upset at.

      You’re working 60 hours a week because better dwelling? Give me a break, and go get a real job.

      • Hugo 2 months ago

        People want to complain. If they don’t like it, they can go read something else. This data doesn’t exist elsewhere at this speed, so they can’t. Canadians are just ingrates.

    • Average Man 2 months ago

      Do your parents own a home? Because eventually… Y’know…

  • Kaleb Brockhouse 2 months ago

    Monthly price changes are the size of the median person’s income.

    If you don’t see a currency crisis in the future, I don’t know to tell you. I’m sure someone would love to sell you a home though.

    • Rye 2 months ago

      Odd development indeed. I don’t understand it to be honest. It didn’t make sense in the way up either though. Maybe the pandemic premium is just going to disappear.

  • Seb 2 months ago

    You can a whole house in the US for $50,000. In Toronto, that’s just the month to month change.

  • Rye 2 months ago

    This is fine. It’s just half my post tax wage falling. Still not affordable at my household income, even though we’re in the top 5%.

  • Kyle Stewart 2 months ago

    And I thought we were volatile in Vancouver.

    Bra, what’s the deal with new home prices in Vancouver? No data available?

  • Kate Wright 2 months ago

    Such a joke. Prices can rise 25% in a year, down $50k in a month, and then some clown economist is going to say it’s taxes that make prices high. Okay, and when nothing changes and prices fall by $50k? What? Taxes are still there, morons.

  • Some Politician In Ottawa Probably 2 months ago

    nooo!!! NOT THE EQUITY

  • Lucas 2 months ago

    God I love watching this s**t show from the US.

  • Average Man 2 months ago

    Materially, after the run-up of the last 18 months (and really, of the last three years, and the two years from 2015-2017), $50,000 doesn’t really make that much of a difference.

    But psychologically, if you’re someone who’s maxed out your budget, gotten money from the Bank of Mum and Dad (who may have gotten some of that money from their own home equity), and possibly committed some light mortgage fraud, believing it’s all worth it because, hey, “It only goes up,” you might find this drop just a little spooky, eh?

  • SH 2 months ago

    Oh didums. Has someone alerted Adam Vaughan? Need more central bank liquidity and interventionist policies. Can’t have a single month with a negligible decline, you know.

Comments are closed.