Toronto and Vancouver Home Price Growth Decelerate Further, But Trend Might Reverse

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Greater Toronto and Vancouver real estate price growth further decelerated last month. Both boards reported the rate of annual growth fell in August. Surprisingly low inventory, typical during election periods, helped to firm prices though. It may even be enough to return the trend to growth this month. At least for the near-term.

Greater Toronto Real Estate Price Growth Further Slowed

Greater Toronto real estate prices showed further signs of a slowdown last month. The 3-month annualized rate of growth fell to 5.14% in August, down from 6.72% from the month before. As for the annual rate of growth, it fell to 17.37%, down from 18.06% over the same period. A clear deceleration trend is forming, but it might experience a bit of a hiccup this month. 

Toronto Real Estate Composite Benchmark Growth

The 3-month (annualized) and annual rate of price growth for a typical home in Greater Toronto.

Source: CREA; Better Dwelling.

Greater Toronto real estate prices can easily put a halt to the declining annual growth. If prices fail to drop more than 0.17% ($1,830) in September, the annual rate of growth would stall. Considering prices increased $4,900 in August, it doesn’t seem like an impossible goal at all. Though, in the City of Toronto, prices actually printed negative growth last month. The picture is a little more mixed than the headline numbers imply.

Greater Vancouver Real Estate Price Growth Slowed Very Rapidly

Greater Vancouver real estate also experienced a further slowdown, similar to Toronto. The 3-month annualized rate of price growth fell to 1.30% in August, down from 6.84% the month before. The annual rate decelerated to 13.24%, down from 13.83% over the same period. It wasn’t much of a deceleration for the annual rate, and it might return to growth this month.

Vancouver Real Estate Composite Benchmark Growth

The 3-month (annualized) and annual rate of price growth for a typical home in Greater Vancouver.

Source : CREA; Better Dwelling.

Greater Vancouver prices can only make a small drop if it wants to prevent deceleration. Prices would need to drop less than 0.03% ($380) in September to halt further deceleration for annual growth. For context, last month the composite benchmark price increased $1,100 — so this one can go either way.

Price growth usually doesn’t move in a straight line, so a couple of hiccups don’t mean a new trend. Just like when the deceleration began, it wasn’t a clear trend after a single month. What we’re seeing might be a bump in the road, or a new grow trend.

A lack of inventory across the country is firming prices in both regions. This is typical of election months, as more sellers wait to see what kind of policies will prop up values. It turns out promising to inject more capital into housing is a great way to get buyers to hold onto inventory. Though last time, we weren’t looking at record new home building and low population growth.

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