Time for you cheat sheet on this week’s most important stories.
Canadian Real Estate
The CMHC was totally wrong about the market. Or were they? It turns out a typical first-time condo buyer in Toronto and Vancouver have taken a big hit. Those that bought in May, one month after the agency’s warning, with the minimum downpayment have lost the majority of their downpayment. In Toronto, a typical buyer during this period is now negative equity, even after months of payments. In Vancouver it’s a little bit better, but they’re still down a good portion of their downpayment.
Canadian real estate prices are expected to make a big move in the first two quarters, but end the year flat. Prices are forecast to reach $666,089 in Q2, up 9.50% from the same quarter a year before. They then see prices sliding lower, ending the year just 0.31% higher than in Q1. It’s growth, but not much compared to what people may be expecting after last year’s move.
Canadian mortgage delinquencies are generally down, but severe delinquencies have made a sharp increase. Delinquencies over 60 days, but less than 120 days are both seeing declines after payment deferrals. Severe delinquencies, over 120 days past due, are seeing the fastest growth in years.
Royal LePage, one of Canada’s largest real estate brokerages, sees condos having a slow year. The brokerage forecasts condo prices across Canada will reach $522,700 in 2021, up just 2.25% from a year before. In Toronto, the country’s largest condo market, they only see prices 0.50% higher by year end. To contrast, this is about half the growth they’re forecasting for national price growth in all segments. The agency attributes this to the accelerating trend of people leaving primary cities, and relocating to secondary ones.
Canada’s population is expected to continue substantial growth, but where the growth is, will shift. CMHC projects Canada will see between 2.4 million and 4.7 million new households over the next 2 decades. The rate of growth however, is expected to peak right around now. From here on, growth is also expected to slow in B.C. and Ontario, two traditional regions that led in growth. As the population ages, younger provinces located in the Prairies are expected to take the top spot for growth.
Toronto Real Estate
Greater Toronto real estate prices are soaring again, but this time it’s unusually a suburban trend. The price of a typical home across TRREB reached $909,500 in December, up 0.78% ($7,000) from the previous month. The price of a home in the City fell to $952,400, down 0.61% ($5,800) over the same period. It’s not unusual for the suburbs to outperform, since prices are historically much cheaper. However, it’s unusual now that the gap is almost closed between the two, and growth is heading in opposite directions.
Vancouver Real Estate
Greater Vancouver real estate prices are up a lot from last year, but still making up for ground lost. The composite benchmark reached $1,047,400 in December, up 0.3% from the previous month. The typical home across the region is now a massive 5.4% higher than the same month last year. Data from the board also shows that’s still down 0.2% from around 3 years ago. Home prices are rising at a rapid pace, but it’s still not the market that was seen a few years ago.
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