Time for your cheat sheet on this week’s top stories.
Canadian Real Estate
Canadians Are Leaving At A Record Pace—and Half Are From Ontario
Immigration caps aren’t the only drag on population—Canadians are leaving too. Emigration, when citizens or PR holders permanently leave, is climbing fast. Most of that outflow is coming from Ontario, where 56,400 emigrants left in the 12 months ending in Q1 2026. That volume sets a new record, coming in at roughly the equivalent loss of a city like Inisfil. Combine that with the elevated interprovincial migration and slow immigration, and Ontario is facing an unprecedented headwind. One that won’t be easy to reverse and is likely to leave a generational scar on the region.
Canadian Real Estate Is Building A “Nation of Rentals”: BMO
Policymakers are fueling a home-building boom across Canada, but not for homeowners. The seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of housing starts fell 6% to 239,000 units, marking a third straight monthly drop. BMO Capital Markets told investors last week that overall construction remains healthy, but Canada is becoming a “nation of rentals.” Starts intended for ownership plunged at a pace not seen outside of a recession. Most (58.2%) of new housing starts are for purpose-built rentals—a first in the country’s history.
Bank of Canada Warns There’s A Big Glut of Tiny Condos, Slashes Forecast
The Bank of Canada (BoC) believes residential investment picked up, but lowered its forecast anyway. In its latest Monetary Policy Report, the BoC said investment in new homes and major renovations improved in Q2 2026. It offered little explanation for that view and instead provided data for the opposite, making a downward revision for its contribution to GDP in 2026 and 2027. The central bank attributes an erosion in demand, a skeptical market, and a glut of small, unsold condos, especially in Toronto and Vancouver, as drags in the near-term.
Canadian Home Prices Fall As Sales Rise To Initial Crash Levels
The price of a typical home across Canada fell 0.3% to $665,600 in June, the first move lower in 5 months. Existing home sales climbed for a second year, but only to the levels seen at the start of the 2022 crash. Demand is firming, but remains at a level similar to the initial market downturn. The big difference is that new listings are a lot higher now—the second-most for the month on record.
Canada’s Population Boom Hid A Weak Economy: BMO
Many attribute the slowing economy to Canada’s slowing population growth. BMO found there’s no correlation between population and real GDP growth in the past 50 years. They argue the economy was in a worse place during peak growth, pointing to the sharp per capita declines. Canada’s growth boom only appeared in aggregate due to adding more households to consume. That was only hiding the erosion that households were actually feeling.
Just left this week and no plans to return to the nanny state.